Trump: 4 years or 8 years?

[andrew_c]

4 years if Trump continues to be Trump. Less if he gets impeached. 8 years if the DNC goes full retard in 2020.

[Figueira]

I love all these people saying that he'll be a "good" or "successful" President

What's wrong with saying that? There is no guarantee that he'll be a failure as president...

Yes there is.

[Person Man]

4 years if Trump continues to be Trump. Less if he gets impeached. 8 years if the DNC goes full retard in 2020.

Basically he fails, but still wins because there is no longer an effective opposition. He runs his course after Democrats become irrelevant and his only way to keep the Republicans relevant is to try to blame the new guys for what they have done.

[Mr. Smith]

I love all these people saying that he'll be a "good" or "successful" President

What's wrong with saying that? There is no guarantee that he'll be a failure as president...

No guarantees for the peanut farmer of Georgia either.

[Person Man]

I love all these people saying that he'll be a "good" or "successful" President

What's wrong with saying that? There is no guarantee that he'll be a failure as president...

No guarantees for the peanut farmer of Georgia either.

This might be the 2nd longest time we have gone with someone not being picked off since the Civil War if we count Johnson being Primaried in 1968.

1888,1892,1912,1928,1968,1976,1980,1988

Wouldn't be surprised if Pence had to finish one of Trump's term and then Pence lost.

[TomC]

I've got $20 on 14 months.

[pbrower2a]

If Barack Obama had the perception of a left-wing extremist to the Tea Party types, Donald Trump will have the reality of right-wing extremism to people on the Center-Left to Far Left. For that Donald Trump will lose about as much of a share of the popular vote between 2016 and 2020 as Obama did between 2008 and 2012.

Obama 2008 52.86
Obama 2012 51.01

down 1.85

Trump 2016 45.98

down 1.85

Trump 2020 44.13

That will be enough to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida.

I suspect that it will be far worse for Trump. 

[Maxwell]

6 years.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The conventional wisdom says it's very difficult to unseat the incumbent. We've had two-termers since 19923, or even 1980, if you discount GHWB single term as an exception.

Then again, the conventional wisdom died last election.

I guess what I'm trying to say: nobody has a f**king clue.

[ElectionsGuy]

More likely 8.

[Devout Centrist]

Trump for 23.7 years.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The Democratic Party is the dumbest party on earth, so probably eight years.

That's their problem nowadays.  Stupidity.

[Person Man]

If Barack Obama had the perception of a left-wing extremist to the Tea Party types, Donald Trump will have the reality of right-wing extremism to people on the Center-Left to Far Left. For that Donald Trump will lose about as much of a share of the popular vote between 2016 and 2020 as Obama did between 2008 and 2012.

Obama 2008 52.86
Obama 2012 51.01

down 1.85

Trump 2016 45.98

down 1.85

Trump 2020 44.13

That will be enough to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida.

I suspect that it will be far worse for Trump. 

Or he gets a 3 point bounce and the third parties stay home and its 48.1/48.8 and he wins in a 1 point pv victory with the barest majority of the PV and wins everything right of CO.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

My intuition says yes, narrowly, but with 2018 being meh, 2022 being a crushing defeat, and 2024 being another bad year.

Wonder how good my intuition is.

[tallguy23]

I think whomever won would have been a one-termer. The question is, does he run for a second term?

[Mr. Smith]

I love all these people saying that he'll be a "good" or "successful" President

What's wrong with saying that? There is no guarantee that he'll be a failure as president...

Yes there is.

Oh, if you're a very partisan liberal, sure there is.

No guarantees for the peanut farmer of Georgia either.

Why are you so obsessed with these 1976/1980 comparisons?

I've always thought whoever won 2016 was gonna get booted out in 2020, assuming they even made it to 2020 in one piece.

And the way everything lined up was bizarrely reminiscent of three outcomes: 1976 , 1988 , and until Election Night itself 2000 too a much lesser extent.

Since Clinton lost, that rules out 1988/1992.

This leaves the other two outcomes: Pretty obvious which outcome is more desirable for someone with my economic and environmental views.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

The conventional wisdom says it's very difficult to unseat the incumbent. We've had two-termers since 19923, or even 1980, if you discount GHWB single term as an exception.

Then again, the conventional wisdom died last election.

I guess what I'm trying to say: nobody has a f**king clue.

I have a f**king clue because my conventional wisdom was correct last election, and I say Trump will be a great President and he will serve two full terms, with 2024 potentially being tossup/lean GOP.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

The conventional wisdom says it's very difficult to unseat the incumbent. We've had two-termers since 19923, or even 1980, if you discount GHWB single term as an exception.

Then again, the conventional wisdom died last election.

I guess what I'm trying to say: nobody has a f**king clue.

I have a f**king clue because my conventional wisdom was correct last election, and I say Trump will be a great President and he will serve two full terms, with 2024 potentially being tossup/lean GOP.

I'm absolutely sick of people saying 2016 was shocking. Conventional wisdom said that Trump and the GOP would win, and they won.

You have to be politically illiterate to be surprised about 2016.

m'kay

[Fusionmunster]

The conventional wisdom says it's very difficult to unseat the incumbent. We've had two-termers since 19923, or even 1980, if you discount GHWB single term as an exception.

Then again, the conventional wisdom died last election.

I guess what I'm trying to say: nobody has a f**king clue.

I have a f**king clue because my conventional wisdom was correct last election, and I say Trump will be a great President and he will serve two full terms, with 2024 potentially being tossup/lean GOP.

I'm absolutely sick of people saying 2016 was shocking. Conventional wisdom said that Trump and the GOP would win, and they won.

You have to be politically illiterate to be surprised about 2016.

We have never had a candidate win the electoral college and lose the popular vote by three million votes. It is shocking and unprecedented.

[Person Man]

The conventional wisdom says it's very difficult to unseat the incumbent. We've had two-termers since 19923, or even 1980, if you discount GHWB single term as an exception.

Then again, the conventional wisdom died last election.

I guess what I'm trying to say: nobody has a f**king clue.

I have a f**king clue because my conventional wisdom was correct last election, and I say Trump will be a great President and he will serve two full terms, with 2024 potentially being tossup/lean GOP.

I'm absolutely sick of people saying 2016 was shocking. Conventional wisdom said that Trump and the GOP would win, and they won.

You have to be politically illiterate to be surprised about 2016.

That's not what the polling averages said. Trump had a 21 percent chance of winning. He won because undecideds broke 2:1 which sometimes happens and sometimes doesn't for the challenger.

They broke against Romney in 2012. Obama was still ahead and that's why Obama carried Florida. In 2007, they broke even because the election was over by the beginning of October. In 2004, they broke against Kerry and allowed Bush to win NM and IA. He was ahead just enough to put Florida out contention and barely win Ohio. In 2000, they broke for Gore because of Bush's DUI.

Trump has about the same chances of suceeding as he did winning and the same for being an average president whose party steadily becomes the minority even if he gets reelected.

[Devout Centrist]

The conventional wisdom says it's very difficult to unseat the incumbent. We've had two-termers since 19923, or even 1980, if you discount GHWB single term as an exception.

Then again, the conventional wisdom died last election.

I guess what I'm trying to say: nobody has a f**king clue.

I have a f**king clue because my conventional wisdom was correct last election, and I say Trump will be a great President and he will serve two full terms, with 2024 potentially being tossup/lean GOP.

Just like 2000, 2008, and 2016.

[ag]

12 - until the very end.

[Devout Centrist]

The conventional wisdom says it's very difficult to unseat the incumbent. We've had two-termers since 19923, or even 1980, if you discount GHWB single term as an exception.

Then again, the conventional wisdom died last election.

I guess what I'm trying to say: nobody has a f**king clue.

I have a f**king clue because my conventional wisdom was correct last election, and I say Trump will be a great President and he will serve two full terms, with 2024 potentially being tossup/lean GOP.

Just like 2000, 2008, and 2016.

What?

It's just a jab at the idea that, after two terms of incumbency, the ruling party is favored.

[pbrower2a]

Four. He offends too many people too early. He can stick to his reactionary agenda and lose from 2016 (and he would not have to lose much in the popular vote to have absolutely no chance of winning re-election, or if his reactionary agenda fails and he changes course, he gets primaried. 

Liberals are going to do to him what the Tea Party did to Barack Obama -- only it will be more effective because it will be on issues instead of on personality.

[Person Man]

12 - until the very end.

Oh. I get it.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dm-hxr5rBiU

Replace Melania with Tomi Lehner, though.