Trump: 4 years or 8 years?
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  Trump: 4 years or 8 years?
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Author Topic: Trump: 4 years or 8 years?  (Read 5188 times)
The_Doctor
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« Reply #50 on: December 19, 2016, 02:33:30 PM »

He will be a transformational President and a consensus leader, as Reagan was.  He will be compared to Reagan constantly, and he will match up well.

He will bring the GOP to heel because nothing succeeds like success. 

By the end of Reagan's terms of office (I believe he'll be re-elected, and I believe he'll carry New York his second time out.) the GOP will be the party of the moderates and conservatives, and the Democratic Party will be the narrow, ideological party stuck on the outside looking in.  The Democrats are about to enter a point of being the minority party akin to where they were from the end of the Civil War to 1930.  Not because they have to, but because they are terminally stupid at this point.

Yeah, because realigning presidents lose the popular vote by 2.1% and win only because they win areas where the Old Economy dominates and generally enter office with unfavorable ratings. Your delusion is duly noted, but it's also moronic and woefully lacking in any basic grounding in history or any understanding of realignments or realigning Presidents.

Also, yes, win New York after losing it by 20 points the first time around. I think that counts as grand delusion.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #51 on: December 19, 2016, 02:38:24 PM »

Trump won't finish out the first term. If he runs for a second term, he loses. Any other Republican who runs has a much better chance.

"Accidental Presidents" don't do well. See: John Q. Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, and so on. Popular vote losers tend to be very unpopular by the end of their presidencies and since this is Donald Trump, I assume that he won't run for a second term having burned through his political capital by 2020. (I think he'll be impeached by 2019).
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #52 on: December 19, 2016, 02:40:29 PM »

Outside shot at the GOP being so bankrupt politically by 2020 (like most of Trump's business ventures) that Trump simply exits and leaves the wreckage of the GOP to smolder. But I don't think that's 2020.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #53 on: December 20, 2016, 11:00:02 AM »

Trump won't finish out the first term. If he runs for a second term, he loses. Any other Republican who runs has a much better chance.

"Accidental Presidents" don't do well. See: John Q. Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, and so on. Popular vote losers tend to be very unpopular by the end of their presidencies and since this is Donald Trump, I assume that he won't run for a second term having burned through his political capital by 2020. (I think he'll be impeached by 2019).

This is a pretty good read on the situation. Dubya only won reelection because of 9/11 and patriotism. Even then, he only squeaked out a 2.5% win. Clinton would have been a one-termer as well.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #54 on: December 20, 2016, 11:08:33 AM »

Four two term Presidents in a row is unprecedented. Not impossible, but based on the competence shown in transition and the likely corruption to follow I'm saying at most four.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #55 on: December 20, 2016, 11:12:32 AM »

Trump won't finish out the first term. If he runs for a second term, he loses. Any other Republican who runs has a much better chance.

"Accidental Presidents" don't do well. See: John Q. Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, and so on. Popular vote losers tend to be very unpopular by the end of their presidencies and since this is Donald Trump, I assume that he won't run for a second term having burned through his political capital by 2020. (I think he'll be impeached by 2019).

Interesting analysis but considering the changing political landscape, and his tendency to exceed expectation, he will win it.

It doesn't take much to win a 2nd term. Even W got his 8 years. Obama didn't get much done in his 1st term but won his 2nd term comfortably.

Only one to not be able to do it most recently was HW Bush but that was because they held the White House for 12 years by that time.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #56 on: December 20, 2016, 12:43:53 PM »

Trump won't finish out the first term. If he runs for a second term, he loses. Any other Republican who runs has a much better chance.

"Accidental Presidents" don't do well. See: John Q. Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, and so on. Popular vote losers tend to be very unpopular by the end of their presidencies and since this is Donald Trump, I assume that he won't run for a second term having burned through his political capital by 2020. (I think he'll be impeached by 2019).

Interesting analysis but considering the changing political landscape, and his tendency to exceed expectation, he will win it.

It doesn't take much to win a 2nd term. Even W got his 8 years. Obama didn't get much done in his 1st term but won his 2nd term comfortably.

Only one to not be able to do it most recently was HW Bush but that was because they held the White House for 12 years by that time.

Trump would need to govern competently and with a defined political strategy for 4 years. Nothing in the campaign demonstrates this ability, let alone the rigors of governing. Compare W. in 2000 to the presidency. The campaign foreshadowed the White House years pretty well. W. executed, largely, a consistent strategy and only lost the popular vote given the DUI (it was by .5%).

Trump improvised ad hoc consistently and went to strategy after strategy, until he won.

People who win two terms tend to be people who are good planners and execute consistent strategies that win out. Reagan, Clinton (after his 1993-1995 adventure), W. Bush, they all have one commonality - a defined tried and true political strategy, coalition, and consistent outreach.

Trump? None of that. He won't be a two term president. The GOP coalition is also demonstratably much weaker in outreach.

I do think the DNC has a 40% chance of winning, but I do the Dem chances increase measurably if Trump runs again on the order of 60-70%.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #57 on: December 20, 2016, 01:21:35 PM »

Trump won't finish out the first term. If he runs for a second term, he loses. Any other Republican who runs has a much better chance.

"Accidental Presidents" don't do well. See: John Q. Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, and so on. Popular vote losers tend to be very unpopular by the end of their presidencies and since this is Donald Trump, I assume that he won't run for a second term having burned through his political capital by 2020. (I think he'll be impeached by 2019).

Interesting analysis but considering the changing political landscape, and his tendency to exceed expectation, he will win it.

It doesn't take much to win a 2nd term. Even W got his 8 years. Obama didn't get much done in his 1st term but won his 2nd term comfortably.

Only one to not be able to do it most recently was HW Bush but that was because they held the White House for 12 years by that time.

Trump would need to govern competently and with a defined political strategy for 4 years. Nothing in the campaign demonstrates this ability, let alone the rigors of governing. Compare W. in 2000 to the presidency. The campaign foreshadowed the White House years pretty well. W. executed, largely, a consistent strategy and only lost the popular vote given the DUI (it was by .5%).

Trump improvised ad hoc consistently and went to strategy after strategy, until he won.

People who win two terms tend to be people who are good planners and execute consistent strategies that win out. Reagan, Clinton (after his 1993-1995 adventure), W. Bush, they all have one commonality - a defined tried and true political strategy, coalition, and consistent outreach.

Trump? None of that. He won't be a two term president. The GOP coalition is also demonstratably much weaker in outreach.

I do think the DNC has a 40% chance of winning, but I do the Dem chances increase measurably if Trump runs again on the order of 60-70%.

Bush got re-elected despite Patriot Act.
Obama got re-elected despite Obamacare.

Trump can get his 2nd term if he passes his Build that Wall Act and we don't suffer major terrorist attacks or even if he doesn't, he can spew BS stats that illegals have slowed down when it already has been slowing down. If I were him, I'd say "Look at Europe. Do you want refugees taking away your jobs?" Vote for me again or America won't continue to be great".

Look, he'll easily win 2nd term. It takes misinformed and irrational voters and not competent governing to win. Voters have dishonest beliefs that we need to put all politicians one term but we elect the same one over again. We seem to hate uncertainty after 4 years so stick with our leader.

I would love to be proven wrong and for you to be right but he is an overwhelming favorite.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #58 on: December 20, 2016, 01:26:22 PM »

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46% does not easily become 51%. When you lose by 2.8 million, you need to make up that 2.8 million and add 1-2 million of your own to win an election. Even if Trump built the wall (it will be built, it's already half built and it's doing nothing) and even if Trump restricts immigration, he'll still face considerable opposition. Remember, alot of dumb morons voted in this election and trump lost the popular vote by 2.1% and had to have an inside straight in the Midwest to win.

Again, my argument rests on that Bush had a consistent and coherent strategy. Trump has none. People can be misinformed and uneducated. They however don't do well with people who throw things at the wall and hope they stick, which is the Trump strategy. It's why he lost the popular vote.

He. Has. No. Consistent. Governing. Strategy. Just like the campaign.

The country's problems also don't get better and Trump's incoherent strategy is going to tee off a lot of people.

I hope I'm right too, and we're done with Bozo the First, too. But we'll see. We'll agree to disagree.
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ShamDam
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« Reply #59 on: December 20, 2016, 02:38:35 PM »

Depends. Should I follow the trend of always underestimating Trump, or my predictions just always being wrong?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #60 on: December 20, 2016, 02:41:48 PM »

Depends. Should I follow the trend of always underestimating Trump, or my predictions just always being wrong?

A better metric is how I vote. None of the non-titanium safe candidates I've voted for have won in a general.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #61 on: December 20, 2016, 02:53:29 PM »

ITT: Democrats saying 4 years or less, Republicans saying 8 years.

Shocker.

You think it'd be different the other way around?

Besides cynics such as myself, the bulk of D's here would've insisted Clinton re-elected, while the R's would've insisted otherwise.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #62 on: December 20, 2016, 02:56:54 PM »

ITT: Democrats saying 4 years or less, Republicans saying 8 years.

Shocker.

You think it'd be different the other way around?

Besides cynics such as myself, the bulk of D's here would've insisted Clinton re-elected, while the R's would've insisted otherwise.

Sure, no doubt about it. There's just no way we can predict 2020 right now. Beating an incumbent president isn't easy, but we don't know what Trump's presidency will look like.
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Person Man
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« Reply #63 on: December 20, 2016, 03:42:35 PM »

ITT: Democrats saying 4 years or less, Republicans saying 8 years.

Shocker.

You think it'd be different the other way around?

Besides cynics such as myself, the bulk of D's here would've insisted Clinton re-elected, while the R's would've insisted otherwise.

My position was and is the winner would be a one termer or not finish.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #64 on: December 22, 2016, 04:58:30 PM »

I'm going for eight years. I believe that Trump has a vision for the country that will definitely bring change (for the better), albeit this wish for change is downplayed by MSM in favor of just shouting "RACIST! BIGOT!" whenever Trump comes up.
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tonyreyes89
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« Reply #65 on: December 22, 2016, 05:04:01 PM »

i think Pence becomes president before the end of the first term
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KingSweden
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« Reply #66 on: December 22, 2016, 05:04:57 PM »

i think Pence becomes president before the end of the first term

Yup. I also think Pence has good odds of winning in 2020
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Person Man
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« Reply #67 on: December 22, 2016, 05:27:29 PM »

i think Pence becomes president before the end of the first term

Yup. I also think Pence has good odds of winning in 2020
He probably loses if he runs for a 2nd term.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #68 on: December 22, 2016, 09:32:47 PM »

I think 4 years... Although he will likely win many rust belt states again...

But I think Dems will win Florida in 2020 + (AZ or WI or MI) ... depending on who the candidate is... especially if you have a young, smart, charismatic speaker on the ticket... that will also help motivate younger minorities to turn out in swing states (like Cory Booker or one of the Castro Brothers... all of whom are great speakers, young, likable & very intelligent (Stanford & Yale/Harvard Law... not to mention Rhodes Scholar for Booker)
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #69 on: December 22, 2016, 10:28:34 PM »

He will be a transformational President and a consensus leader, as Reagan was.  He will be compared to Reagan constantly, and he will match up well.

He will bring the GOP to heel because nothing succeeds like success. 

By the end of Trump's terms of office (I believe he'll be re-elected, and I believe he'll carry New York his second time out.) the GOP will be the party of the moderates and conservatives, and the Democratic Party will be the narrow, ideological party stuck on the outside looking in.  The Democrats are about to enter a point of being the minority party akin to where they were from the end of the Civil War to 1930.  Not because they have to, but because they are terminally stupid at this point.

Yeah, because realigning presidents lose the popular vote by 2.1% and win only because they win areas where the Old Economy dominates and generally enter office with unfavorable ratings. Your delusion is duly noted, but it's also moronic and woefully lacking in any basic grounding in history or any understanding of realignments or realigning Presidents.

Also, yes, win New York after losing it by 20 points the first time around. I think that counts as grand delusion.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #70 on: December 22, 2016, 11:07:08 PM »

i think Pence becomes president before the end of the first term

Yup. I also think Pence has good odds of winning in 2020

Even though Pence was important to Trumps election (as Pence reassured many on the far right) ...

I think as a candidate himself.. Mike Pence is far Less electable that Trump.... as he would lose many of the swing voters that Trump won.  Pence under the microscope is far right of the average voter.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #71 on: December 22, 2016, 11:32:59 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2016, 11:42:35 PM by TD »

He will be a transformational President and a consensus leader, as Reagan was.  He will be compared to Reagan constantly, and he will match up well.

He will bring the GOP to heel because nothing succeeds like success.  

By the end of Trump's terms of office (I believe he'll be re-elected, and I believe he'll carry New York his second time out.) the GOP will be the party of the moderates and conservatives, and the Democratic Party will be the narrow, ideological party stuck on the outside looking in.  The Democrats are about to enter a point of being the minority party akin to where they were from the end of the Civil War to 1930.  Not because they have to, but because they are terminally stupid at this point.

Yeah, because realigning presidents lose the popular vote by 2.1% and win only because they win areas where the Old Economy dominates and generally enter office with unfavorable ratings. Your delusion is duly noted, but it's also moronic and woefully lacking in any basic grounding in history or any understanding of realignments or realigning Presidents.

Also, yes, win New York after losing it by 20 points the first time around. I think that counts as grand delusion.

I don't see a response here, to respond to.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #72 on: December 23, 2016, 04:41:02 PM »

He will be a transformational President and a consensus leader, as Reagan was.  He will be compared to Reagan constantly, and he will match up well.

He will bring the GOP to heel because nothing succeeds like success.  

By the end of Trump's terms of office (I believe he'll be re-elected, and I believe he'll carry New York his second time out.) the GOP will be the party of the moderates and conservatives, and the Democratic Party will be the narrow, ideological party stuck on the outside looking in.  The Democrats are about to enter a point of being the minority party akin to where they were from the end of the Civil War to 1930.  Not because they have to, but because they are terminally stupid at this point.

Yeah, because realigning presidents lose the popular vote by 2.1% and win only because they win areas where the Old Economy dominates and generally enter office with unfavorable ratings. Your delusion is duly noted, but it's also moronic and woefully lacking in any basic grounding in history or any understanding of realignments or realigning Presidents.

Also, yes, win New York after losing it by 20 points the first time around. I think that counts as grand delusion.

I don't see a response here, to respond to.
Trump would only flip NY if Upstate split off, in which case Upstate New York would be a lean-Republican swing state and the NYC area would be solid Democrat (except for suburban Long Island).
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Pericles
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« Reply #73 on: December 23, 2016, 05:05:26 PM »

Trump is probably a one-term President. He is already historically unpopular before even taking office. He has made big promises to his supporters that he can't keep, and he is more likely to cause a recession than bring the jobs back. After years without a recession, one is likely to happen in his term. He and the Republican Congress will also go too far to the right for the public. Most incumbents are two-termers, but Trump looks like a one-termer, and if the Democrats get their act together they can win. I'd say he can win, but he is less likely to do so than most incumbents.
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Pericles
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« Reply #74 on: December 23, 2016, 05:11:53 PM »

Also, Trump could be impeached. He has already shown a lack of regard to the law and the Constitution. He is scandal-prone, and already historically unpopular. There are his conflicts of interest and other scandals. Allan Lichtman, the professor who predicted Trump's win based on his scientific model, has also predicted his impeachment. Republicans may find that Pence is preferable to Trump, especially given his already poor relations with the GOP Congress. I do think impeachment is unlikely, but it is less unlikely with Trump. Both Trump and Hilary Clinton were more likely to get impeached than the average President. The possibility that Trump serves less than 4 years in office should also be considered.
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