Trump: 4 years or 8 years?

[The_Doctor]

He will be a transformational President and a consensus leader, as Reagan was.  He will be compared to Reagan constantly, and he will match up well.

He will bring the GOP to heel because nothing succeeds like success. 

By the end of Reagan's terms of office (I believe he'll be re-elected, and I believe he'll carry New York his second time out.) the GOP will be the party of the moderates and conservatives, and the Democratic Party will be the narrow, ideological party stuck on the outside looking in.  The Democrats are about to enter a point of being the minority party akin to where they were from the end of the Civil War to 1930.  Not because they have to, but because they are terminally stupid at this point.

Yeah, because realigning presidents lose the popular vote by 2.1% and win only because they win areas where the Old Economy dominates and generally enter office with unfavorable ratings. Your delusion is duly noted, but it's also moronic and woefully lacking in any basic grounding in history or any understanding of realignments or realigning Presidents.

Also, yes, win New York after losing it by 20 points the first time around. I think that counts as grand delusion.

[The_Doctor]

Trump won't finish out the first term. If he runs for a second term, he loses. Any other Republican who runs has a much better chance.

"Accidental Presidents" don't do well. See: John Q. Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, and so on. Popular vote losers tend to be very unpopular by the end of their presidencies and since this is Donald Trump, I assume that he won't run for a second term having burned through his political capital by 2020. (I think he'll be impeached by 2019).

[The_Doctor]

Outside shot at the GOP being so bankrupt politically by 2020 (like most of Trump's business ventures) that Trump simply exits and leaves the wreckage of the GOP to smolder. But I don't think that's 2020.

[The_Doctor]

Trump won't finish out the first term. If he runs for a second term, he loses. Any other Republican who runs has a much better chance.

"Accidental Presidents" don't do well. See: John Q. Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, and so on. Popular vote losers tend to be very unpopular by the end of their presidencies and since this is Donald Trump, I assume that he won't run for a second term having burned through his political capital by 2020. (I think he'll be impeached by 2019).

Interesting analysis but considering the changing political landscape, and his tendency to exceed expectation, he will win it.

It doesn't take much to win a 2nd term. Even W got his 8 years. Obama didn't get much done in his 1st term but won his 2nd term comfortably.

Only one to not be able to do it most recently was HW Bush but that was because they held the White House for 12 years by that time.

Trump would need to govern competently and with a defined political strategy for 4 years. Nothing in the campaign demonstrates this ability, let alone the rigors of governing. Compare W. in 2000 to the presidency. The campaign foreshadowed the White House years pretty well. W. executed, largely, a consistent strategy and only lost the popular vote given the DUI (it was by .5%).

Trump improvised ad hoc consistently and went to strategy after strategy, until he won.

People who win two terms tend to be people who are good planners and execute consistent strategies that win out. Reagan, Clinton (after his 1993-1995 adventure), W. Bush, they all have one commonality - a defined tried and true political strategy, coalition, and consistent outreach.

Trump? None of that. He won't be a two term president. The GOP coalition is also demonstratably much weaker in outreach.

I do think the DNC has a 40% chance of winning, but I do the Dem chances increase measurably if Trump runs again on the order of 60-70%.

[The_Doctor]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

46% does not easily become 51%. When you lose by 2.8 million, you need to make up that 2.8 million and add 1-2 million of your own to win an election. Even if Trump built the wall (it will be built, it's already half built and it's doing nothing) and even if Trump restricts immigration, he'll still face considerable opposition. Remember, alot of dumb morons voted in this election and trump lost the popular vote by 2.1% and had to have an inside straight in the Midwest to win.

Again, my argument rests on that Bush had a consistent and coherent strategy. Trump has none. People can be misinformed and uneducated. They however don't do well with people who throw things at the wall and hope they stick, which is the Trump strategy. It's why he lost the popular vote.

He. Has. No. Consistent. Governing. Strategy. Just like the campaign.

The country's problems also don't get better and Trump's incoherent strategy is going to tee off a lot of people.

I hope I'm right too, and we're done with Bozo the First, too. But we'll see. We'll agree to disagree.

[The_Doctor]

He will be a transformational President and a consensus leader, as Reagan was.  He will be compared to Reagan constantly, and he will match up well.

He will bring the GOP to heel because nothing succeeds like success.  

By the end of Trump's terms of office (I believe he'll be re-elected, and I believe he'll carry New York his second time out.) the GOP will be the party of the moderates and conservatives, and the Democratic Party will be the narrow, ideological party stuck on the outside looking in.  The Democrats are about to enter a point of being the minority party akin to where they were from the end of the Civil War to 1930.  Not because they have to, but because they are terminally stupid at this point.

Yeah, because realigning presidents lose the popular vote by 2.1% and win only because they win areas where the Old Economy dominates and generally enter office with unfavorable ratings. Your delusion is duly noted, but it's also moronic and woefully lacking in any basic grounding in history or any understanding of realignments or realigning Presidents.

Also, yes, win New York after losing it by 20 points the first time around. I think that counts as grand delusion.

I don't see a response here, to respond to.