Trump: 4 years or 8 years?

[Pericles]

Trump is probably a one-term President. He is already historically unpopular before even taking office. He has made big promises to his supporters that he can't keep, and he is more likely to cause a recession than bring the jobs back. After years without a recession, one is likely to happen in his term. He and the Republican Congress will also go too far to the right for the public. Most incumbents are two-termers, but Trump looks like a one-termer, and if the Democrats get their act together they can win. I'd say he can win, but he is less likely to do so than most incumbents.

[Pericles]

Also, Trump could be impeached. He has already shown a lack of regard to the law and the Constitution. He is scandal-prone, and already historically unpopular. There are his conflicts of interest and other scandals. Allan Lichtman, the professor who predicted Trump's win based on his scientific model, has also predicted his impeachment. Republicans may find that Pence is preferable to Trump, especially given his already poor relations with the GOP Congress. I do think impeachment is unlikely, but it is less unlikely with Trump. Both Trump and Hilary Clinton were more likely to get impeached than the average President. The possibility that Trump serves less than 4 years in office should also be considered.

[Pericles]

Also, Trump could be impeached. He has already shown a lack of regard to the law and the Constitution. He is scandal-prone, and already historically unpopular. There are his conflicts of interest and other scandals. Allan Lichtman, the professor who predicted Trump's win based on his scientific model, has also predicted his impeachment.

Why does the fact that Lichtman's model has finally been discredited give him credence?

He predicted Trump's win, and so did other scientific, fundamentals-based models.