Trump won't finish out the first term. If he runs for a second term, he loses. Any other Republican who runs has a much better chance.
"Accidental Presidents" don't do well. See: John Q. Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, and so on. Popular vote losers tend to be very unpopular by the end of their presidencies and since this is Donald Trump, I assume that he won't run for a second term having burned through his political capital by 2020. (I think he'll be impeached by 2019).
Interesting analysis but considering the changing political landscape, and his tendency to exceed expectation, he will win it.
It doesn't take much to win a 2nd term. Even W got his 8 years. Obama didn't get much done in his 1st term but won his 2nd term comfortably.
Only one to not be able to do it most recently was HW Bush but that was because they held the White House for 12 years by that time.
Trump would need to govern competently and with a defined political strategy for 4 years. Nothing in the campaign demonstrates this ability, let alone the rigors of governing. Compare W. in 2000 to the presidency. The campaign foreshadowed the White House years pretty well. W. executed, largely, a consistent strategy and only lost the popular vote given the DUI (it was by .5%).
Trump improvised ad hoc consistently and went to strategy after strategy, until he won.
People who win two terms tend to be people who are good planners and execute consistent strategies that win out. Reagan, Clinton (after his 1993-1995 adventure), W. Bush, they all have one commonality - a defined tried and true political strategy, coalition, and consistent outreach.
Trump? None of that. He won't be a two term president. The GOP coalition is also demonstratably much weaker in outreach.
I do think the DNC has a 40% chance of winning, but I do the Dem chances increase measurably if Trump runs again on the order of 60-70%.
Bush got re-elected despite Patriot Act.
Obama got re-elected despite Obamacare.
Trump can get his 2nd term if he passes his Build that Wall Act and we don't suffer major terrorist attacks or even if he doesn't, he can spew BS stats that illegals have slowed down when it already has been slowing down. If I were him, I'd say "Look at Europe. Do you want refugees taking away your jobs?" Vote for me again or America won't continue to be great".
Look, he'll easily win 2nd term. It takes misinformed and irrational voters and not competent governing to win. Voters have dishonest beliefs that we need to put all politicians one term but we elect the same one over again. We seem to hate uncertainty after 4 years so stick with our leader.
I would love to be proven wrong and for you to be right but he is an overwhelming favorite.
