Guess the scenario of this map
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Author Topic: Guess the scenario of this map  (Read 2298 times)
bagelman
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« Reply #25 on: December 19, 2016, 02:39:06 AM »
Dems have gone Sanders on economic issues while tossing aside cultural issues. GOP has become the party of diversity and business.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #26 on: December 19, 2016, 07:33:03 AM »
Quote from: Bigby on December 18, 2016, 11:47:21 PM
Quote from: The complete absurdity of Alice Scarlet on December 18, 2016, 10:23:58 PM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on December 18, 2016, 10:22:10 PM
There is massive drought in the west. The Republican nominee supports taking most of the water from the Mississippi, Great Lakes, and Columbia Rivers and diverting it to the drought areas. States that are losing water have a massive backlash.

The Democratic nominee is half white and half black from the south, and manages to win both southern whites and southern blacks.

No.

Notice that the Republican got >40% in TX, NM, AZ, etc. and did not win a majority in those states.

Are those three states normally more Democratic but enough liberals left the Democratic coalition to abnormally flip those states?

Bingo.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #27 on: December 19, 2016, 07:37:05 AM »
Quote from: bagelman on December 19, 2016, 02:39:06 AM
Dems have gone Sanders on economic issues while tossing aside cultural issues. GOP has become the party of diversity and business.

No. The national party and the vast majority of state  parties have not vone this way.

You are allowed to give a guess map of what a normal election in this tmeframe is.

Quote from: The complete absurdity of Alice Scarlet on December 18, 2016, 10:14:46 PM
Quote from: Sherrod Brown In Disguise on December 18, 2016, 10:10:40 PM
A geographic guess: Compared to now the margin in the BosWash corridor for the Dem is underwhelming, or even only lean D

In certain parts the typical margin has declined (eg CT NJ), but not in others. California's GOP plurality is not an isolated incident.

Actually, the guess is somewhat true normally.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #28 on: December 19, 2016, 03:15:06 PM »
The GOP candidate is a Governor or Senator from Indiana.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #29 on: December 19, 2016, 04:27:46 PM »
The Democrat is not supported by some party leaders, who endorsed the independent.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #30 on: December 19, 2016, 05:35:49 PM »
Quote from: Sherrod Brown In Disguise on December 19, 2016, 04:27:46 PM
The Democrat is not supported by some party leaders, who endorsed the independent.



Yes.

Quote from: Parrotguy on December 19, 2016, 03:15:06 PM
The GOP candidate is a Governor or Senator from Indiana.

Probably not. Why do you think that?
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #31 on: December 19, 2016, 08:24:00 PM »
The concept of the generic D has largely stayed where it is today, except perhaps a touch to the right on economic issues.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #32 on: December 19, 2016, 08:54:53 PM »
Quote from: Sherrod Brown In Disguise on December 19, 2016, 08:24:00 PM
The concept of the generic D has largely stayed where it is today, except perhaps a touch to the right on economic issues.


Similar, but the concept is noticeably different
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #33 on: December 19, 2016, 10:14:39 PM »
Quote from: The complete absurdity of Alice Scarlet on December 19, 2016, 08:54:53 PM
Quote from: Sherrod Brown In Disguise on December 19, 2016, 08:24:00 PM
The concept of the generic D has largely stayed where it is today, except perhaps a touch to the right on economic issues.


Similar, but the concept is noticeably different

I don't understand what this statement means.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #34 on: December 19, 2016, 10:17:13 PM »
Quote from: Sherrod Brown In Disguise on December 19, 2016, 10:14:39 PM
Quote from: The complete absurdity of Alice Scarlet on December 19, 2016, 08:54:53 PM
Quote from: Sherrod Brown In Disguise on December 19, 2016, 08:24:00 PM
The concept of the generic D has largely stayed where it is today, except perhaps a touch to the right on economic issues.


Similar, but the concept is noticeably different

I don't understand what this statement means.



The concept of a generic D has probably changed noticibly, but not to the point of being unrecognizable.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #35 on: December 19, 2016, 10:21:27 PM »
So is a generic D shifted to the right on economic issues, while sprinting to the left on social issues?
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #36 on: December 19, 2016, 10:31:56 PM »
Quote from: Sherrod Brown In Disguise on December 19, 2016, 10:21:27 PM
So is a generic D shifted to the right on economic issues, while sprinting to the left on social issues?

The liberals have a more "establishment" Gillibrand or Gallego feel, but are still quite liberal. Overall, they have shifted left (while de-emphasizing some things like gun control), becoming even more stauchly pro-choice, strongly pro genetic engineering, advocating for a carbon tax, raising minimum wage etc. while not being populist(pro free trade, for example).

I think there's enough info to make some guesses and perhaps construct a generic D vs. generic R map.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #37 on: December 19, 2016, 10:59:44 PM »
A neutral year:
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #38 on: December 19, 2016, 11:31:31 PM »

No. You kind of have the gist of it, but some states need to be flipped and some shadings are noticeably off.
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tomhguy
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« Reply #39 on: December 23, 2016, 01:41:47 PM »
A mid-western republican with a strong southern democrat, the VP for republican comes from Nevada but cannot flip it.
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bagelman
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« Reply #40 on: December 23, 2016, 04:28:40 PM »
The Democrat is socially liberal and fiscally conservative?
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #41 on: December 23, 2016, 11:19:21 PM »
Quote from: bagelman on December 23, 2016, 04:28:40 PM
The Democrat is socially liberal and fiscally conservative?

No...
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