NH-GOV 2018: Molly Kelly (D) running

[Figueira]

Sununu is by far the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in New England. Not really saying much though.

Is Sununu not very popular?

Everyone else is Extremely popular (Baker, Scott, LePage), and in comparison he is vulnerable.

LePage's approvals are in the mid-thirties.

LePage is term-limited. If he weren't I would say he was the most vulnerable.

My reasoning is that Baker is popular and Scott, while he was just elected, looks like a Baker type and Vermont tends to love incumbents. Also both of them have very little power since Democrats control the legislatures.

Sununu's party on the other hand has full control over the state, so voters actually have policies to vote against. Also the last Republican Governor there lost after one term. I think Sununu is slightly favored but not to the extent that Baker is. And Baker is more vulnerable than Scott.

[libertpaulian]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Cool story bro.

[JMT]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

You realize you're talking about a Republican governor elect right? Meaning he got elected with an R next to his name not even two months ago

[Nyvin]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

The R's in NH run literally every branch of the state government now.

Ironically they don't hold any federal offices though.

[smoltchanov]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Idiocy - pure and simple. ALL fedreal races were very close this year in NH. Republicans control legislature. And after all that "republican label is unacceptable"? I had very good laugh. Continue to make such statements and you will have excellent chances to become good comic...

[NHI]

My money is on Executive Councilor Chris Pappas running.

[KingSweden]

My money is on Executive Councilor Chris Pappas running.

How would you handicap such a race?

[Virginiá]

Idiocy - pure and simple. ALL fedreal races were very close this year in NH. Republicans control legislature. And after all that "republican label is unacceptable"? I had very good laugh. Continue to make such statements and you will have excellent chances to become good comic...

Even more than that. A little better performance by NH Democrats this year and we could instead be looking at a Democratic state government instead. Sununu barely won, and there were enough enough GOP-won state senate races within 4 points to flip the chamber. I'm sure a similarly better tide could have paid dividends in the house too.

My bet is that TNVol is going to feel quite vindicated by Nov 2020, but probably sooner.

[MT Treasurer]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Idiocy - pure and simple. ALL fedreal races were very close this year in NH. Republicans control legislature. And after all that "republican label is unacceptable"? I had very good laugh. Continue to make such statements and you will have excellent chances to become good comic...

Sununu won by a very underwhelming margin against a very bad opponent. Republicans have real trouble winning statewide or federal races in NH, especially when you compare it with how well they do in gubernatorial races (and sometimes even Congressional races) in all the other New England states. I also think Ayotte would have beaten Hassan had she run in Maine, but maybe that's debatable.  

If NH really was such a competitive bellwether state, Trump and Ayotte wouldn't have lost it. So yeah, while NH did trend a bit Republican this year, I fully expect the state to trend even more away from the GOP in the coming years. The Democratic floor there is ridiculously high.

[Kingpoleon]

My money is on Executive Councilor Chris Pappas running.

How would you handicap such a race?

Not the person you were addressing, but I'd rate it Lean D, as it is a midterm, but closer to Tossup than Likely D.

[NHI]

My money is on Executive Councilor Chris Pappas running.

How would you handicap such a race?

At the moment Tossup to Lean D.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Pappas would make sense, as would Shaheen.

I'm also almost certain that Steve Marchand is going to run again, given that he seemingly got in late this time to raise name ID for the next round.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Do you hate NH? Or are you a closed Dem?

I obviously dislike the state, but there are several other reasons why I want to see Sununu lose in 2018:

1.) I'd much rather Kelly Ayotte won than him. Ayotte is an overrated neocon, but she's better than the 'person' that will be sworn in as Senator today.
2.) Sununu, even though he is too liberal for my taste, is obviously way to the right of his state.
3.) If Sununu wins in 2018, he will probably run against Shaheen in 2020 or Hassan in 2022, which will lead Republicans to waste resources in unwinnable NH instead of focusing on competitive states like CO, NC and MT. Republicans wasting all that money to save Ayotte last year almost cost them PA, WI and MO and thus the Senate.
4.) If the RGA had triaged NH and spent all that money in NC instead of NH, Republicans could have held a governorship in a crucial swing state. No one cares whether a blue state like NH has a one-term Republican governor who doesn't have any power anyway. WV might have been winnable as well.
5.) Sununu also strikes me as a pretty unlikeable, phony guy. The guy ran a very nasty, negative, ruthless campaign that appealed to many Clinton/Hassan voters.

So yeah, I hope he loses in 2018. The NH Democratic Party threw away a winnable race this year, I don't think they will make that same mistake in 2018 or 2020. Sununu should be gone in two or four years.

Why do you have such an obsessive hatred of New Hampshire.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

It is only a matter of time before the inevitable Governor, Congresswoman Ann McLane Kuster, be elected Governor of New Hampshire against Chris Sununu because if his brother got crushed by a NH woman, he can too.

Just want to address the notion of Kuster running: NH GOV is basically worth a bucket of warm urine. All state contracts over 10k and a bunch of other things have to pass a 5 member executive council (as other folks have noted in the thread). Kuster is likely far better off amassing seniority in the House or waiting, waiting, waiting for Shaheen to retire.

[smoltchanov]

It is only a matter of time before the inevitable Governor, Congresswoman Ann McLane Kuster, be elected Governor of New Hampshire against Chris Sununu because if his brother got crushed by a NH woman, he can too.

Just want to address the notion of Kuster running: NH GOV is basically worth a bucket of warm urine. All state contracts over 10k and a bunch of other things have to pass a 5 member executive council (as other folks have noted in the thread). Kuster is likely far better off amassing seniority in the House or waiting, waiting, waiting for Shaheen to retire.

well, Shaheen turns 70 this year, but Kuster turns 61 too. And next Senate election in state is in 2020. May be too late for a long Senate career...

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

It is only a matter of time before the inevitable Governor, Congresswoman Ann McLane Kuster, be elected Governor of New Hampshire against Chris Sununu because if his brother got crushed by a NH woman, he can too.

Just want to address the notion of Kuster running: NH GOV is basically worth a bucket of warm urine. All state contracts over 10k and a bunch of other things have to pass a 5 member executive council (as other folks have noted in the thread). Kuster is likely far better off amassing seniority in the House or waiting, waiting, waiting for Shaheen to retire.

well, Shaheen turns 70 this year, but Kuster turns 61 too. And next Senate election in state is in 2020. May be too late for a long Senate career...

Well yeah. In that case she should just stay in Congress, since the corner office in NH is a strict downgrade.

[krazen1211]

Right to work is coming! Great news! Crush the unions.

Link

[Nyvin]

Right to work is coming! Great news! Crush the unions.

Link

Quite worthless legislation in a state with a 2.6% unemployment rate.  

It is only a matter of time before the inevitable Governor, Congresswoman Ann McLane Kuster, be elected Governor of New Hampshire against Chris Sununu because if his brother got crushed by a NH woman, he can too.

Just want to address the notion of Kuster running: NH GOV is basically worth a bucket of warm urine. All state contracts over 10k and a bunch of other things have to pass a 5 member executive council (as other folks have noted in the thread). Kuster is likely far better off amassing seniority in the House or waiting, waiting, waiting for Shaheen to retire.

Not to mention two other tidbits:

1.  The NH state government operates on a bare bones budget and only performs the most rudimentary tasks that you typically see state governments perform.   A friend of mine pointed out how Massachusetts and Maine both have reflectors on their state roads, while NH has nothing of the sort.    You see these discrepancies all over, especially in contrast to Massachusetts.  As the head of the NH state government,  you REALLY don't get much to work with.

2.  Being elected every two years as opposed to four in one of the most politically volatile states in the country.

You have to say...NH Gov is the pits,  so much hassle and so little benefit.  

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Well, they can get back a congressional seat. NH-1 is a tilt R district, carried by Trump and Ayotte, Guinta just had too many scandals.

[Figueira]

^ Well, they can get back a congressional seat. NH-1 is a tilt R district, carried by Trump and Ayotte, Guinta just had too many scandals.

I don't think the 2nd district is out of reach either, although probably not happening in 2018.

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, they can get back a congressional seat. NH-1 is a tilt R district, carried by Trump and Ayotte, Guinta just had too many scandals.

I don't think the 2nd district is out of reach either, although probably not happening in 2018.

Yeah, but for that to happen either wave or better candiddate, then rather bland Lawrence, is required...

[Heisenberg]

^ Well, they can get back a congressional seat. NH-1 is a tilt R district, carried by Trump and Ayotte, Guinta just had too many scandals.

I don't think the 2nd district is out of reach either, although probably not happening in 2018.

Yeah, but for that to happen either wave or better candiddate, then rather bland Lawrence, is required...

Lawrence came shockingly close. Flanagan would have probably made it even closer, but still lost.

[SATW]

I honestly would take a job w/ NH GOP just to make it red again to troll MT Treasurer/TN Volunteer.

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, they can get back a congressional seat. NH-1 is a tilt R district, carried by Trump and Ayotte, Guinta just had too many scandals.

I don't think the 2nd district is out of reach either, although probably not happening in 2018.

Yeah, but for that to happen either wave or better candiddate, then rather bland Lawrence, is required...

Lawrence came shockingly close. Flanagan would have probably made it even closer, but still lost.

Probably - partisanship. Percentages in all major races in New Hampshire (President, Senator, Governor, House) were, generally, similar. Sununu got slightly better percentage (more crossover appeal???), but all are, essentially, similar.

Republicans can still win with relatively conservative candidate in 1st, but will, probably, need moderate in 2nd...

[Figueira]

I think NH-02 might have been closer than usual this time largely because of depressed Sanders voters.