NH-GOV 2018: Molly Kelly (D) running

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Not likely.  New Hampshire is a very elastic state and much more Republican in midterms than in presidential years.  The GOP candidates for governor in 2010 and 2014 far overperformed their poll numbers, the GOP took one or both House seats, and they made gains in the legislature.  Having a chair like this doesn't mean much either, since Sununu is a different character.

[The Other Castro]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Not likely.  New Hampshire is a very elastic state and much more Republican in midterms than in presidential years.  The GOP candidates for governor in 2010 and 2014 far overperformed their poll numbers, the GOP took one or both House seats, and they made gains in the legislature.  Having a chair like this doesn't mean much either, since Sununu is a different character.

And the midterm before 2010? Oh look at that, 74% for the Democrat.

[smoltchanov]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Not likely.  New Hampshire is a very elastic state and much more Republican in midterms than in presidential years.  The GOP candidates for governor in 2010 and 2014 far overperformed their poll numbers, the GOP took one or both House seats, and they made gains in the legislature.  Having a chair like this doesn't mean much either, since Sununu is a different character.

And the midterm before 2010? Oh look at that, 74% for the Democrat.

It was one of the strongest Democratic waves with incumbent being a popular and noncontrovercial Democratic governor. Do we have that NOW???

[smoltchanov]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Not likely.  New Hampshire is a very elastic state and much more Republican in midterms than in presidential years.  The GOP candidates for governor in 2010 and 2014 far overperformed their poll numbers, the GOP took one or both House seats, and they made gains in the legislature.  Having a chair like this doesn't mean much either, since Sununu is a different character.

And the midterm before 2010? Oh look at that, 74% for the Democrat.

It was one of the strongest Democratic waves with incumbent being a popular and noncontrovercial Democratic governor. Do we have that NOW???

We don't know that yet, but at this point, I'm almost rooting for every downballot R to get destroyed in every election until they renounce Trump.

Well, i just read governor Scott (Vermont) statement. It seems he would like to do what you want, but, with a lot of money coming to state budget from federals, simply can't denounce it directly. I think a lot of Republican officeholders will be in the same position..

[publicunofficial]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

[smoltchanov]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

Who said that a state with Republican trifecta is turning into safe D? All Democratic victories in 2016 were very narrow, and, in some cases (Guinta) - against very flawed opponents..

[Figueira]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

NH isn't turning Safe D. The reason it's not trending R the way ME is is because ME's trend is mostly in the north, away from the population centers of NH.

[smoltchanov]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

NH isn't turning Safe D. The reason it's not trending R the way ME is is because ME's trend is mostly in the north, away from the population centers of NH.

BTW, the northernmost county of New Hampshire (Coos), which may have some similarities with likewise counties in Maine (strong blue-collar Democratic areas mixed with some ancestrally Republican one, not especially high level of education, and so on) also swung heavily to Trump... It's relatively small, so it didn't influenced New Hampshire results too much, but - still...

[Figueira]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

NH isn't turning Safe D. The reason it's not trending R the way ME is is because ME's trend is mostly in the north, away from the population centers of NH.

BTW, the northernmost county of New Hampshire (Coos), which may have some similarities with likewise counties in Maine (strong blue-collar Democratic areas mixed with some ancestrally Republican one, not especially high level of education, and so on) also swung heavily to Trump... It's relatively small, so it didn't influenced New Hampshire results too much, but - still...

Same with Essex County, Vermont. For whatever reason, that huge region of Essex, Coos, every inland county in Maine, and Washington County swung heavily towards Trump.

[smoltchanov]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

NH isn't turning Safe D. The reason it's not trending R the way ME is is because ME's trend is mostly in the north, away from the population centers of NH.

BTW, the northernmost county of New Hampshire (Coos), which may have some similarities with likewise counties in Maine (strong blue-collar Democratic areas mixed with some ancestrally Republican one, not especially high level of education, and so on) also swung heavily to Trump... It's relatively small, so it didn't influenced New Hampshire results too much, but - still...

Same with Essex County, Vermont. For whatever reason, that huge region of Essex, Coos, every inland county in Maine, and Washington County swung heavily towards Trump.

Yeah, i noticed it too. So, probably, a combination of factors (mostly white+ mostly blue collar+ not very high education level+ mostly rural+ may be something else) is determining factor of last year swing to Trump where we observe it... Midwestern  and Appalachian areas, which swung to Trump, also exhibit many of those features... And even some Southern (like NE Mississippi) - too...

[KingSweden]

Good lord...

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http://www.vnews.com/Fresh-off-2016-success-Republicans-choose-new-chair-7767400

Ooooh, an angry NH woman! Bet you're excited

[MAINEiac4434]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

Over the past fifteen years, Maine has gotten an influx of African refugees from Somalia and Sudan. Older, white Mariners who voted Democrat, especially Franco-Americans, think they're bringing crime, draining welfare and not integrating into their communities. You can see why the current tract of the Republican Party would appeal to them.

[Nyvin]

Berlin and Gorham in Coos county (White Mountains area) still votes Democratic.   It's mostly the area along the Connecticut River that swung heavily to Trump, in Coos County.

[smoltchanov]

Berlin and Gorham in Coos county (White Mountains area) still votes Democratic.   It's mostly the area along the Connecticut River that swung heavily to Trump, in Coos County.

Yeah, but even there Clinton got only 50% against 45% for Trump. Usually Democrats fare much better.

[MAINEiac4434]

Good job GOPers who voted against that disastrous legislation. Interesting to see where Sunununununu will go from here.

[Babeuf]

Great news! Thankful for the courage of the anti-RTW NH GOP reps. 

Next step: gain trifectas in a few RTW states during the midterms and repeal these awful laws. And also come up with legislative workarounds in response to the inevitable gutting of public unions in Friedrichs 2.0 whenever Gorsuch joins the Court. 

[Nyvin]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

Who said that a state with Republican trifecta is turning into safe D? All Democratic victories in 2016 were very narrow, and, in some cases (Guinta) - against very flawed opponents..

Republican Quadfecta is more accurate.

[MAINEiac4434]

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For such a small state, NH has a huge legislature

I think the largest per-capita in the world.

[Virginiá]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

Who said that a state with Republican trifecta is turning into safe D? All Democratic victories in 2016 were very narrow, and, in some cases (Guinta) - against very flawed opponents..

Meh, I'd also like to chime in that many GOP victories in NH were narrow as well. I believe there were like 3 State Senate races where the Republican only won by 4 or fewer points, and like 6 where it was <8 points. Their grip on power is pretty unstable, but Democrats don't really have any grip either. 2016 had a remarkable number of close races in NH.

But, with that, I'd say the GOP is pretty vulnerable in the legislature and maybe even Gov race in 2018. Probably won't even take national wave conditions to cost the GOP a chamber or two in NH with these kinds of numbers.

edit: ok noticed it was an old post but w/e

[Nyvin]

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For such a small state, NH has a huge legislature

It's quite pointless too.   People just vote straight ticket 95% of the time, that leads to districts electing slates of representatives that are 100% Democrat or 100% Republican almost universally.  

It would be so easy to downsize the chamber and have it be way more effective.  

[publicunofficial]

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For such a small state, NH has a huge legislature

It's quite pointless too.   People just vote straight ticket 95% of the time, that leads to districts electing slates of representatives that are 100% Democrat or 100% Republican almost universally.  

It would be so easy to downsize the chamber and have it be way more effective.  

But then all those hard working legislators would be out of work!

That said, I also kind of dislike the system that Washington, Arizona, and New Jersey use where each Senate district elects two House members. Leads to smaller communities not being represented enough IMO.

[Badger]

Good job GOPers who voted against that disastrous legislation. Interesting to see where Sunununununu will go from here.

[windjammer]

Lol if they can't unite their caucus behind this kind of important legislation.

[smoltchanov]

Good that reasonable Republicans, not voting for idiotic legislation, and having their own (distinct from party leadership) opinion on isuues still exist. AFAIK - there are similar Democrats too....

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

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For such a small state, NH has a huge legislature

It's quite pointless too.   People just vote straight ticket 95% of the time, that leads to districts electing slates of representatives that are 100% Democrat or 100% Republican almost universally.  

It would be so easy to downsize the chamber and have it be way more effective.  

But then all those hard working legislators would be out of work!

That said, I also kind of dislike the system that Washington, Arizona, and New Jersey use where each Senate district elects two House members. Leads to smaller communities not being represented enough IMO.

They get paid $200 a term. For 90% of them, it's more a question of losing their hobby they picked up when the kids went off to college rather than any financial concern.