NH-GOV 2018: Molly Kelly (D) running

[smoltchanov]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Idiocy - pure and simple. ALL fedreal races were very close this year in NH. Republicans control legislature. And after all that "republican label is unacceptable"? I had very good laugh. Continue to make such statements and you will have excellent chances to become good comic...

[smoltchanov]

It is only a matter of time before the inevitable Governor, Congresswoman Ann McLane Kuster, be elected Governor of New Hampshire against Chris Sununu because if his brother got crushed by a NH woman, he can too.

Just want to address the notion of Kuster running: NH GOV is basically worth a bucket of warm urine. All state contracts over 10k and a bunch of other things have to pass a 5 member executive council (as other folks have noted in the thread). Kuster is likely far better off amassing seniority in the House or waiting, waiting, waiting for Shaheen to retire.

well, Shaheen turns 70 this year, but Kuster turns 61 too. And next Senate election in state is in 2020. May be too late for a long Senate career...

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, they can get back a congressional seat. NH-1 is a tilt R district, carried by Trump and Ayotte, Guinta just had too many scandals.

I don't think the 2nd district is out of reach either, although probably not happening in 2018.

Yeah, but for that to happen either wave or better candiddate, then rather bland Lawrence, is required...

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, they can get back a congressional seat. NH-1 is a tilt R district, carried by Trump and Ayotte, Guinta just had too many scandals.

I don't think the 2nd district is out of reach either, although probably not happening in 2018.

Yeah, but for that to happen either wave or better candiddate, then rather bland Lawrence, is required...

Lawrence came shockingly close. Flanagan would have probably made it even closer, but still lost.

Probably - partisanship. Percentages in all major races in New Hampshire (President, Senator, Governor, House) were, generally, similar. Sununu got slightly better percentage (more crossover appeal???), but all are, essentially, similar.

Republicans can still win with relatively conservative candidate in 1st, but will, probably, need moderate in 2nd...

[smoltchanov]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Not likely.  New Hampshire is a very elastic state and much more Republican in midterms than in presidential years.  The GOP candidates for governor in 2010 and 2014 far overperformed their poll numbers, the GOP took one or both House seats, and they made gains in the legislature.  Having a chair like this doesn't mean much either, since Sununu is a different character.

And the midterm before 2010? Oh look at that, 74% for the Democrat.

It was one of the strongest Democratic waves with incumbent being a popular and noncontrovercial Democratic governor. Do we have that NOW???

[smoltchanov]

Sununu is toast even if he governs as a moderate or liberal. Having an R next to your name is unacceptable in NH.

Not likely.  New Hampshire is a very elastic state and much more Republican in midterms than in presidential years.  The GOP candidates for governor in 2010 and 2014 far overperformed their poll numbers, the GOP took one or both House seats, and they made gains in the legislature.  Having a chair like this doesn't mean much either, since Sununu is a different character.

And the midterm before 2010? Oh look at that, 74% for the Democrat.

It was one of the strongest Democratic waves with incumbent being a popular and noncontrovercial Democratic governor. Do we have that NOW???

We don't know that yet, but at this point, I'm almost rooting for every downballot R to get destroyed in every election until they renounce Trump.

Well, i just read governor Scott (Vermont) statement. It seems he would like to do what you want, but, with a lot of money coming to state budget from federals, simply can't denounce it directly. I think a lot of Republican officeholders will be in the same position..

[smoltchanov]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

Who said that a state with Republican trifecta is turning into safe D? All Democratic victories in 2016 were very narrow, and, in some cases (Guinta) - against very flawed opponents..

[smoltchanov]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

NH isn't turning Safe D. The reason it's not trending R the way ME is is because ME's trend is mostly in the north, away from the population centers of NH.

BTW, the northernmost county of New Hampshire (Coos), which may have some similarities with likewise counties in Maine (strong blue-collar Democratic areas mixed with some ancestrally Republican one, not especially high level of education, and so on) also swung heavily to Trump... It's relatively small, so it didn't influenced New Hampshire results too much, but - still...

[smoltchanov]

Is there an explanation for why NH is turning into a safe D state but Maine is trending R?

NH isn't turning Safe D. The reason it's not trending R the way ME is is because ME's trend is mostly in the north, away from the population centers of NH.

BTW, the northernmost county of New Hampshire (Coos), which may have some similarities with likewise counties in Maine (strong blue-collar Democratic areas mixed with some ancestrally Republican one, not especially high level of education, and so on) also swung heavily to Trump... It's relatively small, so it didn't influenced New Hampshire results too much, but - still...

Same with Essex County, Vermont. For whatever reason, that huge region of Essex, Coos, every inland county in Maine, and Washington County swung heavily towards Trump.

Yeah, i noticed it too. So, probably, a combination of factors (mostly white+ mostly blue collar+ not very high education level+ mostly rural+ may be something else) is determining factor of last year swing to Trump where we observe it... Midwestern  and Appalachian areas, which swung to Trump, also exhibit many of those features... And even some Southern (like NE Mississippi) - too...

[smoltchanov]

Berlin and Gorham in Coos county (White Mountains area) still votes Democratic.   It's mostly the area along the Connecticut River that swung heavily to Trump, in Coos County.

Yeah, but even there Clinton got only 50% against 45% for Trump. Usually Democrats fare much better.

[smoltchanov]

Good that reasonable Republicans, not voting for idiotic legislation, and having their own (distinct from party leadership) opinion on isuues still exist. AFAIK - there are similar Democrats too....

[smoltchanov]

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For such a small state, NH has a huge legislature

It's quite pointless too.   People just vote straight ticket 95% of the time, that leads to districts electing slates of representatives that are 100% Democrat or 100% Republican almost universally.  

It would be so easy to downsize the chamber and have it be way more effective.  

But then all those hard working legislators would be out of work!

That said, I also kind of dislike the system that Washington, Arizona, and New Jersey use where each Senate district elects two House members. Leads to smaller communities not being represented enough IMO.

They get paid $200 a term. For 90% of them, it's more a question of losing their hobby they picked up when the kids went off to college rather than any financial concern.

Absolutely. I was surprized at the extremely high number of retired persons in New Hampshire legislature, but only until i saw a legislator's payment sum. It's really a hobby for vast majority of them...

[smoltchanov]

Good that reasonable Republicans, not voting for idiotic legislation, and having their own (distinct from party leadership) opinion on isuues still exist. AFAIK - there are similar Democrats too....

Huh, pleasantly surprised you're anti-RTW.

I am not anti-union, though i can't say i admire all of them. And i am pro-environment, pro-choice (with only minimal restrictions, which looks reasonable to me) and pro-SSM (though it took time for me to come to this position, i was "only" pro civil unions initially). So - i am not that "reactionary", rather very strong "anti-party maverick", who is absolutely mad about present day political polarization (especially - compared to early 1970th when i began to study politics).....

[smoltchanov]

Kelly, of course, is very serious candidate. But - easily characterized as "ultraliberal from ultraliberal Keene". What was very good for state Senator, representing very liberal area of the state (her state Senate district was more then 60% for Clinton on 2016, while she got only plurality in the state), may be not so good for governor candidate.

[smoltchanov]

I don't know of anyone who would describe Keene as "ultraliberal."

And I - know a lot. Almost all my friends would characterize 64 - 31% Clinton city this way. We have different sets of friends))))