1948-2016 Deviations of the States

[Georg Ebner]

Italics mean strong candidates above 5%.

[SingingAnalyst]

The increased polarization between NY+CA and small heartland states is obvious. Still, it is partly obscured between the growing urban+inner suburban vs. exurban+rural divide.  VT seems to be the only exception.

[MT Treasurer]

Thanks! Minnesota and New Hampshire were true shockers this year.

[jaichind]

This is awesome. One thing that struck me is the impact of not having Bush I on the GOP ticket on GOP fortunes in New England.  Bush I was he last real Easterner running at the top of the GOP ticket until Trump 2016 when the GOP finally made a recovery in New England.

[SingingAnalyst]

This is just depressing for Democrats.  They would have to replicate the VA 2008 trend in at least 3 different states to get the EC advantage back in 2020 and beyond.

I think there is great hope for the Dems to win back FL-MI-PA-WI as well as AZ, GA, NC by 2024.

[mianfei]

Georg,

I’ve been planning to do a table like that – only going back much further to the Civil War or the end of Reconstruction and with data to one or two decimal places.

The perspective on the changed polarisation of politics – which seems to me to be, following the work of Jonathan Rodden, turning into a bimodal frequency of voter preferences as seems to have occurred in 1920s and 1930s Europe – is very clear from the graph but a different or merely more complete picture would be obtained with data as far back as the end of Reconstruction.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Really good chart (just remember when looking at this that these numbers effectively double the Cook PVI).  In Cook's world, R+5 means 55-45 in a neutral election, but that is expressed as R+10 here.  Still a really good chart!

[Vosem]

This is awesome. One thing that struck me is the impact of not having Bush I on the GOP ticket on GOP fortunes in New England.  Bush I was he last real Easterner running at the top of the GOP ticket until Trump 2016 when the GOP finally made a recovery in New England.

The former Massachusetts governor Republicans ran in 2012 didn't count as an easterner?

[jaichind]

This is awesome. One thing that struck me is the impact of not having Bush I on the GOP ticket on GOP fortunes in New England.  Bush I was he last real Easterner running at the top of the GOP ticket until Trump 2016 when the GOP finally made a recovery in New England.

The former Massachusetts governor Republicans ran in 2012 didn't count as an easterner?

He is an honorary western due to his work in Utah Certainly the election results seems to imply he was viewed as a Westerner 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In terms of the last time each state voted more R/D than the nation as a whole than it did in 2016 and what it would look like in a 50-50 vote in 2020 if it does half of its 2016 swing:

Maine: Most Republican since 1988 (the last time it voted to the right of the nation as a whole); 55-45 R
New Hampshire: Most Republican since 1992; 52-48 R
Vermont: Most Republican since 2004; 60-40 D
Massachusetts: Most Democratic since 1972; 64-36 D
Rhode Island: Most Republican since 1992; 53-47 D (WOW!!)
Connecticut: Most Republican since 1996; 56-44 D
New York: Most Republican since 1992; 59-41 D
New Jersey: Most Republican since 2008; 56-44 D
Delaware: Most Republican since 1996; 53-47 D (WOW!!)
Maryland: Most Democratic since at least 1944; 63-37 D
Pennsylvania: Most Republican since 1948; 53-47 R
Ohio: Most Republican since at least 1944; 57-43 R
Indiana: Most Republican since at least 1944; 62-38 R
Michigan: Most Republican since 1976; 53-47 R
Wisconsin: Most Republican since 1968; 53-47 R
Illinois: Most Democratic since 2008; 58-42 D
Iowa: Most Republican since 1968; 60-40 R (WOW!!)
Minnesota: Most Republican since at least 1944; 52-48 R
North Dakota: Most Republican since at least 1944; 73-27 R
South Dakota: Most Republican since at least 1944; 69-31 R
Nebraska: Most Republican since 2004; 64-36 R
Kansas: Most Democratic since 2008 61-39 R
Utah: Most Democratic since 1972; 52-48 R (WOW!!)
Wyoming: Most Republican since at least 1944; 75-25 R
Montana: Most Republican since 2000; 63-37 R
Idaho: Most Democratic since 2008; 67-33 R
Alaska: Most Democratic since 1992; 58-42 R
Washington: Most Democratic since at least 1944; 58-42 D
Oregon: Most Democratic since 1988; 55-45 D
Hawaii: Most Republican since 2004; 63-37 D
California: Most Democratic since at least 1944; 66-34 D
Nevada: Most Republican since 2004; 51-49 R
Arizona: Most Democratic since 1948; 51-49 R (WOW!!)
Colorado: Most Democratic since at least 1944; 52-48 D
New Mexico: Most Republican since 2004; 53-47 D
Texas: Most Democratic since 1988; 54-46 R (WOW!!)
Oklahoma: Most Republican since 2008; 69-31 R
Missouri: Most Republican since at least 1944; 63-37 R
Arkansas: Most Republican since at least 1944; 65-35 R
Louisiana: Most Republican since 2008; 61-39 R
Mississippi: Most Republican since 1972; 61-39 R
Alabama: Most Republican since 1964; 66-34 R
Florida: Most Republican since 2008; 52-48 R
Georgia: Most Democratic since 1992; 53-47 R
South Carolina: Most Republican since 1972; 59-41 R
North Carolina: Most Democratic since 1980; 53-47 R
Tennessee: Most Republican since at least 1944; 65-35 R
Kentucky: Most Republican since at least 1944; 68-42 R
West Virginia: Most Republican since at least 1944; 76-24 R
Virginia: Most Democratic since at least 1944; 52-48 D
Washington DC: Most Democratic since 1984; 94-6 D

The states that set their extremes since 1944:

The map in 2020 with that "half repeat trend" and a 50-50 PV:

No wonder liberals hate the Electoral College so much!!

[Vosem]

I did a quick calculation a few weeks ago of an "all trends repeat" scenario (which obviously never happens, but whatever), though I didn't adjust to a national 50/50 map; Trump improves very slightly in the Electoral College, with ME/MN/NH/NV all flipping R while only AZ/UT flip D. That gives the following map:

Trump wins, 312-226, a slight improvement over 2016's 305-233 (discounting the Maine electoral vote). However, it takes only a very slight universal swing to defeat Trump, while none of the Democrat's states are particularly close. Here are all victories with a margin of under 1%:

Nevada: Trump+0.08
Texas: Trump+0.46
Georgia: Trump +0.63

A swing of 0.46 is even less than real-life's necessary swing of 0.79. Flip Nevada and Texas and the Democrat wins, 270-268:

If you double the 2016 trends, rather than halving them, you get a narrow Democratic victory, 276-262:

From the previous map, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Georgia all flip.

My point being, while trends never necessarily continue in a certain direction (see Utah being the strongest-trending state two elections in a row; in 2012 towards the Republican, in 2016 towards the Democrat), the trends from 2016, if you assume consistent population distribution between states (which also never happens, but whatever) don't really point to an eternal Republican Electoral College lock; they point to neither party having much of a consistent advantage, which is in agreement with the historical data. If you plug in population trends, with Sun Belt states gaining electoral votes and Rust Belt states losing them, you come to the conclusion that there'll eventually be a narrow Democratic advantage to the Electoral College.

Except not -- because by then the coalitions will have shifted. As they inevitably do

[mianfei]

In terms of the last time each state voted more R/D than the nation as a whole than it did in 2016 and what it would look like in a 50-50 vote in 2020 if it does half of its 2016 swing:

I will list those that are not all-time records for the state in question, but are since 1944 or before:

• Maryland: Most Democratic since 1924
• Ohio: Most Republican since 1932
• Minnesota: Most Republican since 1944
• Washington: Most Democratic since 1896
• Colorado: Most Democratic since 1916
• Virginia: Most Democratic since 1944

California is most Democratic on record relative to the nation. The following states are most Republican ever relative to the nation:

• Indiana
• North Dakota (although 1904 comes very close)
• South Dakota (although 1904 comes very close)
• Wyoming
• Missouri
• Arkansas
• Tennessee
• Kentucky
• West Virginia

It is notable that all these states except Wyoming and the Dakotas form the core of what Colin Woodard (American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America) calls “Greater Appalachia” and what James Löwen (Sundown Towns: A Hidden Dimension of American Racism) calls the “nontraditional South” (I prefer the term “nonplantation South” because the region is just as traditional as what Löwen calls the “traditional South”.) In 1969’s The Emerging Republican Majority, Kevin Philips predicted the disappearance of Civil War-based rural Democratic tradition in the nonplantation South to occur within the decade of the book’s publication, rather than in the 2000s and 2010s as actually observed.

Of the others, South Carolina really surprises me. I imagined it voted more relatively Republican in 2000 and 1988 than in 2016.