Tentative 2018 Governor Rankings

[Littlefinger]

These are my predictions for the 2018 Governor races.

Safe D:
California (Newsom*)
Hawaii (Ige)
New York (Cuomo)
Oregon (Brown)

Likely D:
Colorado (Polis*)
Connecticut (Drew*)
New Jersey (Murphy*)
New Mexico (Lujan Grisham*)
Rhode Island (Raimondo)

Lean D:
Florida (Graham*)...betting on Fl dems not crapping the bed as usual
Illinois (Rauner)
Maine ()
Michigan (Whitmer*)
Minnesota (Walz*)
Nevada (Sisolak*)
Pennsylvania (Wolf)
Virginia (Northam*)

Lean D/I:
Alaska (Walker)

Tossup:
Kansas (Open)
Maryland (Hogan)
Wisconsin (Walker)

Lean R:
Arizona (Ducey)
Georgia (Cagle*)
New Hampshire (Sununu)
Ohio (Husted*)
Vermont (Scott)

Likely R:
Iowa (Reynolds?)
Massachusetts (Baker)
Oklahoma (Lamb*)

Safe R:
Alabama (Byrne*)
Arkansas (Hutchison)
Idaho (Labrador*)
Nebraska (Ricketts?)
South Carolina (McMaster)
South Dakota (Noem*)
Tennessee (Black*)
Texas (Abbott)
Wyoming (Lummis*)

Predicting a total gain of 5-8 seats for Dems.

[jamestroll]

Actually those almost mirror my rating. But I had no idea on Wisconsin or Ohio, as I do not know those states at all.

Of course with these races, we could be in big surprises in 2018. Oklahoma could elect a Democratic governor and Connecticut could elect a Republican Governor.

[Xing]

Safe D: CA, NY, OR, HI

Likely D: AK (Likely I), MN, NJ, NM, RI

Lean D: CO, CT, IL, ME, MI, PA, VA

Toss-Up: FL, MD, NV, NH

Lean R: AZ, IA, KS, OH

Likely R: GA, MA, NE, SC, VT

Safe R: AL, AR, ID, OK, TN, TX, WY

Titanium R: WI (Because of Trump's massive landslide win here, WI is now a dark red state that will never go Democratic again. It's more Republican than WV now)

[Xing]

Titanium R: WI (Because of Trump's massive landslide win here, WI is now a dark red state that will never go Democratic again. It's more Republican than WV now)

So is this your new shtick now? I hope you get that Scotty<333 signature again!

There must be balance in nature. Since Titanium D VA is a thing now, why not Titanium R WI? Heh, maybe if I lose a bet I'll put Scotty back in my signature.

[Mr. Illini]

[RINO Tom]

Looks pretty good, though Democratic-friendly.  I think Baker is beyond safe, Hogan is pretty safe and VT is lean R.

[PAK Man]

Predictions for 2017/2018 races.

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Leans R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Leans D
Connecticut - Tossup
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Leans R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup
Iowa - Likely R
Kansas - Likely R
Maine - Tossup
Maryland - Tossup
Massachusetts - Tossup
Michigan - Tossup
Minnesota - Leans D
Nebraska - Likely R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Leans R
New Jersey (2017) - Leans D (+1)
New Mexico - Tossup
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Leans R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Likely D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Leans D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Safe R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Leans R
Virginia (2017) - Tossup
Wisconsin - Leans R
Wyoming - Safe R

[jamestroll]

Yeah, no. I am not even going to try to predict governor races two years in advanced. lmao.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

2017 Ratings
New Jersey Likley D
Virginia Tossup

90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Yellow Tossup
Green Independent
Grey No Election

I have probably been a bit too liberal on the potential competitiveness of some of these races. However with elections still roughly 2 years away, it makes sense to have more races at likely then safe. Democrats start out as slight favorites in two GOP held states;Illinois and Maine.

[SWE]

I'm not going to do a Safe/Likely/Lean thing because it's too early to really make a meaningful distinction, so I'll just rank the states from most likely to elect a Democrat to most likely to elect a Republican. Counting Bill Walker as a Democrat for convenience sake.

California
Hawaii
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Alaska
New Jersey
New Mexico
Colorado
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Virginia
Michigan
Maine
Illinois
Nevada
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Florida
Kansas
Ohio
Iowa
Vermont
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Arizona
Massachusetts
Georgia
Idaho
South Carolina
Alabama
Texas
Arkansas
South Dakota
Tennessee
Wyoming

[heatcharger]

Following SWE's format:

California
Hawaii
New York
Oregon
New Jersey
Rhode Island
Alaska
Colorado
Virginia
Connecticut
Minnesota
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Illinois
Nevada
New Hampshire
Florida
Maine
Wisconsin
_______________________

Kansas
Maryland
Massachusetts
Vermont
Ohio
Georgia
Oklahoma
Arizona
Iowa
Nebraska
Idaho
South Carolina
Texas
Alabama
Arkansas
South Dakota
Wyoming
Tennessee


My prediction: D+9

[windjammer]

Well,
If I have to guess right now: democrats would pick up NV, MI, WI, NM, IL.
So at least 5 pick ups.

For the rest, it will depend on Trump's popularity.

[smoltchanov]

Don't forget - Democrats have it's own weaknesses: Wolf, Raimondo and Malloy are rather unpopular, Minnesota and Colorado were, essentially, purple, this year and may be even more in midterms, and even Brown in Oregon won by not so convincing 7% margin... Democrats will, obviously, gain in 2018, but knowing their ability to snatch a defeat from the jaws of victory - not sure that by much....

[Sir Mohamed]

As of now, I'd rate these races as follows:

[catographer]

Safe D: CA, HI, NY, RI
Likely D: OR, PA, CT, AK (I)
Lean D: MN, CO, NM
Toss-up: IL, NV, MI, ME
Lean R: NH, VT, WI, FL
Likely R: MA, MD, GA, OH, KS, AZ
Safe R: TX, ID, WY, SD, OK, AL, TN, SC, IA, NE

[smoltchanov]

^ RI is not safe, simply because Raimondo is rather unpopular. If Republicans will be able to finally convince Scott Avedisian to go higher, then Warwick mayorship, the race will immediately move close to "tossup"

And CT is not "likely Democratic" simply because Malloy is unpopular on almost Brownback's level. If he runs - Democrats can easily lose (they already lost 3 seats in state Senate and considerable number in state House in 2016). But even without him - Republicans will use his "ghost" all campaign....

I wouldn't call Wolf especially popular too, but this race at least starts as "Lean Democratic"

And very moderate Scott will, most likely, be no less popular in Vermont then Hogan in Maryland...

[President Johnson]

Safe D: CA, HI, NY
Likely D: OR, CT, RI, MN
Lean D: CO, NM, PA

Toss-up: IL, NV, MI, ME, VT, WI, FL

Lean R: NH, AZ, OH, GA
Likely R: MA, MD, KS, AZ, SC, IA
Safe R: TX, ID, WY, SD, OK, AL, TN, NE

Likely I: AK

[The Other Castro]

Stories like these are why CT could be pretty competitive, regardless of the national environment:
http://www.courant.com/education/hc-state-cuts-town-aid-20161229-story.html

[heatcharger]

I included VA and NJ as well.

Safe D: CA, OR, NY, NJ (D+1)
Likely D: NM (D+2)
Lean D: VA, RI, CT, NV (D+3), IL (D+4)
Tilt D: PA, MI (D+5)

Likely I: AK
Tossup: MN, WI, NH, ME, MD, FL

Tilt R: GA
Lean R: VT, MA, KS, AZ
Likely R: OK, IA, OH
Safe R: TX, AR, AL, TN, SC, NE, SD, WY, ID

Gun to my head, I'd say Democrats win MN, NH, ME, and FL, while Republicans hold WI and MD. A lot could change though.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Could somebody explain to me how Wisconsin could be anything other than Lean R? As much as I dislike Scott Walker, I'm at a loss for how the state Democrats could reestablish a foothold within the next decade. Milwaukee and Madison obviously despise him, but upstate and the northern shore cities like Green Bay, Appleton, Sheboygan, etc. are becoming decidedly more conservative in their outlook due to the decline of unions and cultural reshuffling exacerbated by the urban/rural divide. Milwaukee may be experiencing a revitalization and Madison is still growing, but I don't see how that can break the Republican coalition of the Milwaukee suburbs and an increasingly conservative upstate anytime soon.

[heatcharger]

Could somebody explain to me how Wisconsin could be anything other than Lean R? As much as I dislike Scott Walker, I'm at a loss for how the state Democrats could reestablish a foothold within the next decade. Milwaukee and Madison obviously despise him, but upstate and the northern shore cities like Green Bay, Appleton, Sheboygan, etc. are becoming decidedly more conservative in their outlook due to the decline of unions and cultural reshuffling exacerbated by the urban/rural divide. Milwaukee may be experiencing a revitalization and Madison is still growing, but I don't see how that can break the Republican coalition of the Milwaukee suburbs and an increasingly conservative upstate anytime soon.

What am I missing?

You make good points, but Walker's approval rating is kind of in the dumps right now. Also, there could be Republican fatigue, and Wisconsin has never given a governor a third term despite not having term-limits.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Safe D: CA, CT, HI, NY, OR, RI
Likely D: AK, MN, NM
Lean D: CO, IL, ME, MI, NV, PA
Tossup: FL, NH, OH, WI
Lean R: AZ, IA, VT
Likely R: GA, KS, MD, MA
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WY

[publicunofficial]

SAFE D: California, Oregon, New York, Hawaii
LIKELY D: Rhode Island, Alaska, Connecticut
LEAN D:New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Jersey, Minnesota
Toss-Up: Michigan, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia, Florida, Illinois
Lean R: Maryland, Vermont, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Georgia
Likely R: Massachusetts, Kansas, Nebraska
Safe R: Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama

[Tartarus Sauce]

Safe D:
New York
California
Oregon
Hawaii

Likely D:
Maine
Rhode Island
New Mexico
Minnesota

Lean D:
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Illinois

Tossup:
Nevada
Michigan
New Hampshire
Maryland
Florida

Lean R:
Wisconsin
Georgia
Kansas
Arizona
Vermont
Massachusetts

Likely R:
Ohio
Iowa

Safe R:
Texas
Idaho
Wyoming
South Dakota
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Tennessee
Alabama
South Carolina

Alaska is Likely I.

[Cynthia]

From most likely to flip to least likely:

Likely takeover:
NJ Open
NM Open

Lean takeover:
ME Open

Tossup:
IL
MI Open
NV Open
FL Open
WI
OH Open
NH

Lean retain:
MN Open
CO Open
PA
KS Open
CT
MD
GA Open
RI
AK
IA
AZ
VT

Likely retain:
OK Open
MA
SD Open
TX
NY
AL
SC
NE
OR
ID
WY
AR
HI
CA