Change in Total Turnout, 2012-16

[RI]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

[Classic Conservative]

The Black Belt wow.

[OneJ]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

WTH happened in New Mexico? This heavy Latino state witnessed a decrease that other high Latino states did not see.

Also, voter suppression throughout the South is devastating, especially here in MS.

[Nym90]

The Latino population of New Mexico has ancestors that have been in the US far longer than that in most states (far longer than the white population of most states in fact).

Not sure if that explains it, but makes sense that they would feel less threatened by anti-immigrant rhetoric.

[jaichind]

I am still confused on why there is a fall in turnout in the Midwest.  Urban Midwest is most likely falling AA turnout but there was a Trump surge in rural Midwest which should indicate a surge in turnout. 

[ottermax]

I am still confused on why there is a fall in turnout in the Midwest.  Urban Midwest is most likely falling AA turnout but there was a Trump surge in rural Midwest which should indicate a surge in turnout. 

Regionally there was a greater decline in Democratic voters from 2012 to 2016 in the Midwest relative to the increase in Republican voters.

For example, in Florida Trump was able to increase his votes substantially, but so was Clinton also. Several Midwestern states would have gone for Clinton if all Obama voters had stayed with her.

I ran all this data on a spreadsheet at one point, but it would be cool is someone could summarize or map the country based on which places had vote swings driven by cool Democrats or excited Republicans and vice versa.

[Bismarck]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

WTH happened in New Mexico? This heavy Latino state witnessed a decrease that other high Latino states did not see.

Also, voter suppression throughout the South is devastating, especially here in MS.

Was it voter suppression, or did the black vote just decline without Obama on the ballot? Was black turnout down in Baltimore due to voter suppression?

[Beet]

Nice map. I'm a little shocked at the huge difference between Pennsylvania and Ohio.

[AGA]

Wow, Trump really got a lot people to vote in Appalachia even if some areas of the region have experienced population decline. Some of these areas experienced changes largely due to population growth, such as the Southwest, Florida, and western North Dakota.

[NOVA Green]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

Looking at the difference in turnout levels between Oregon and Washington states, the only logical conclusion that I can draw is that automatic voter DMV registration actually does have a major impact in people registered and turning out to vote....

Am I missing something here?

[Timothy87]

I'm wondering if the Greenwood County, KS stat is a clerical error.  That county is declining in population but had a 25% increase in votes? Very unlikely

[OneJ]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

WTH happened in New Mexico? This heavy Latino state witnessed a decrease that other high Latino states did not see.

Also, voter suppression throughout the South is devastating, especially here in MS.

Was it voter suppression, or did the black vote just decline without Obama on the ballot? Was black turnout down in Baltimore due to voter suppression?

New voter laws weren't passed in Maryland, but that was the case in Mississippi. Does 562,000 Democratic votes ----> 485,000 seem normal to you? I also noticed the decrease in Republican votes (though not nearly as dramatic) too.

[RI]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

Looking at the difference in turnout levels between Oregon and Washington states, the only logical conclusion that I can draw is that automatic voter DMV registration actually does have a major impact in people registered and turning out to vote....

Am I missing something here?

Oregon also has stronger population growth than WA.

[RI]

Mississippi's also been losing population, especially in the Delta.

[Tender Branson]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

Looking at the difference in turnout levels between Oregon and Washington states, the only logical conclusion that I can draw is that automatic voter DMV registration actually does have a major impact in people registered and turning out to vote....

Am I missing something here?

Oregon also has stronger population growth than WA.

Nope. WA has way higher population growth than OR ...

[RI]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

Looking at the difference in turnout levels between Oregon and Washington states, the only logical conclusion that I can draw is that automatic voter DMV registration actually does have a major impact in people registered and turning out to vote....

Am I missing something here?

Oregon also has stronger population growth than WA.

Nope. WA has way higher population growth than OR ...

Really? I could've sworn it was the other way around. I'm at a loss then.

EDIT: Since 2012, WA's grown at 5.7% while Oregon's grown at 5.0%, though I imagine the Bend area's quite higher than that.

[Tender Branson]

WA has grown faster than OR in the 1990s and 2000s.

And it has grown faster by 2% between the 2010 Census and the 2016 estimates (which came out only a few days ago).

[Nym90]

The automatic registration clearly did have a big effect in Oregon.

The percentage of registered voters who voted went down, as expected given people who normally would never register now are being registered, but the percentage of all eligible voters who voted went way up, proving that a lot of people will vote if you make it easy for them but won't bother to if you make it difficult.

A fact that Republicans pushing to make voting as difficult as possible are well aware of.

[Timothy87]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

Looking at the difference in turnout levels between Oregon and Washington states, the only logical conclusion that I can draw is that automatic voter DMV registration actually does have a major impact in people registered and turning out to vote....

Am I missing something here?

Also, Oregon saw its raw turnout decline in two consecutive presidential elections, from 1,836k in 2004 to 1,827k in 2008, to 1,789k in 2012 so it had more room to grow, whereas Washington was one of the few states that saw its turnout (in raw numbers) increase in 2012

[Nym90]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

Looking at the difference in turnout levels between Oregon and Washington states, the only logical conclusion that I can draw is that automatic voter DMV registration actually does have a major impact in people registered and turning out to vote....

Am I missing something here?

Also, Oregon saw its raw turnout decline in two consecutive presidential elections, from 1,836k in 2004 to 1,827k in 2008, to 1,789k in 2012 so it had more room to grow, whereas Washington was one of the few states that saw its turnout (in raw numbers) increase in 2012

That's one way to look at it. Another is that the reversal was quite a surprise given that Oregon wasn't a swing state, and thus the automatic registration of voters had a significant impact.

[Sbane]

I am still confused on why there is a fall in turnout in the Midwest.  Urban Midwest is most likely falling AA turnout but there was a Trump surge in rural Midwest which should indicate a surge in turnout. 

Or maybe what we see as a Trump surge in this region was a combination of interest in Trump and a decline in voter turnout among white working class Democrats in this region.

[Lothal1]

Percent change in total vote, 2012-16:

WTH happened in New Mexico? This heavy Latino state witnessed a decrease that other high Latino states did not see.

Also, voter suppression throughout the South is devastating, especially here in MS.

Not all Hispanics are Mexicans. Most New Mexicans are Hispanos, who are native to the US and are completely assimilated.

[Figueira]

Welp, I think we know why Mississippi trended R.

Also I bet we can flip Georgia if black turnout goes back to 2008 levels.

[MarkD]

I'll add this info to your discussion. I have finished analyzing the number of votes cast in my region - St. Louis City and County.
I live in the 1st Congressional District. The population, according to 2010 census, is roughly 50% black and 47% white. In the 2012 election, I have counted 351,065 votes cast for President; 79.87% of that for Obama, 18.89% for Romney, and 1.24% for others (Johnson and Goode). But in 2016, the number of votes cast, according to my count, is 320,559. That's a drop of 8.6%. Clinton got 76.81%, Trump got 18.76%, and 4.43% were for the others (Johnson, Stein, Castle, and write-ins). The drop in the number of votes cast for the Dems was almost 34,000; the drop in the number of votes cast for GOP was about 6,000; and the increase in the number of votes cast for others was about 10,000.
Within St. Louis City and County, I have also been calculating the presidential votes within each State Representative District, of which there are about 36. Districts 67, 68, 73-79, and 84-86 are the ones that are predominantly black. Those 12 districts are adjacent to one another, and collectively that region is 70% black. That's where the vast majority of the decline in voter turnout occurred. I calculated that in 2012, those 12 districts cast almost 210,000 votes. But in 2016, the number declined to a little over 182,000 votes -- a drop of 13.2%. There was a decline in the white-majority State Representative Districts within the 1st Congressional District too, but no where near as drastic.
I'm sure there is some population decline occurring -- out-migration -- but it surely is not as high as 13.2% in just four years.

[RI]

I'll add this info to your discussion. I have finished analyzing the number of votes cast in my region - St. Louis City and County.
I live in the 1st Congressional District. The population, according to 2010 census, is roughly 50% and 47% white. In the 2012 election, I have counted 351,065 votes cast for President; 79.87% of that for Obama, 18.89% for Romney, and 1.24% for others (Johnson and Goode). But in 2016, the number of votes cast, according to my count, is 320,559. That's a drop of 8.6%. Clinton got 76.81%, Trump got 18.76%, and 4.43% were for the others (Johnson, Stein, Castle, and write-ins). The drop in the number of votes cast for the Dems was almost 34,000; the drop in the number of votes cast for GOP was about 6,000; and the increase in the number of votes cast for others was about 10,000.
Within St. Louis City and County, I have also been calculating the presidential votes within each State Representative District, of which there are about 36. Districts 67, 68, 73-79, and 84-86 are the ones that are predominantly black. Those 12 districts are adjacent to one another, and collectively that region is 70% black. That's were the vast majority of the decline in voter turnout occurred. I calculated that in 2012, those 12 district cast almost 210,000 votes. But in 2016, the number declined to a little over 182,000 votes -- a drop of 13.2%. There was a decline in the white-majority State Representative Districts with the 1st Congress District too, but no where near as drastic.
I'm sure there is some population decline occurring -- out-migration -- but it surely is not as high as 13.2% in just four years.

To add to this, much of the decline in black turnout was among younger black voters:



Also, there's this from the article:

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