What would have the results been if the state of Jefferson existed

[jaichind]

Northern CA has always voted differently from the rest of CA.  One question to ask is what would the result be if the state of Jefferson existed which would be carved out of CA and OR.

 

Without Jefferson the result for CA and OR in 2016 and 2012 are

CA              2016                        2012
Trump     31.49%     Romney   37.07%
Clinton    61.49%     Obama     60.16%
Johnson    3.36%     Johnson      1.10%
Stein         1.96%     Stein          0.66%
Other        1.70%     Other         1.02%

OR             2016                        2012
Trump     39.09%    Romney    42.15%   
Clinton    50.07%    Obama      54.24%
Johnson    4.71%    Johnson      1.35%
Stein         2.50%    Stein          1.09%
Others       3.63%    Others        1.18%

If Jefferson (JF) existed  then it would be

JF              2016                        2012
Trump     51.85%     Romney   53.76%
Clinton    38.36%     Obama     42.34%
Johnson    4.46%     Johnson      1.37%
Stein         2.42%     Stein          1.00%
Other        2.91%     Other         1.52%

CA              2016                        2012
Trump     30.41%     Romney   36.12%
Clinton    62.74%     Obama     61.18%
Johnson    3.29%     Johnson      1.08%
Stein         1.93%     Stein          0.63%
Other        1.63%     Other         0.98%

OR             2016                        2012
Trump     36.05%    Romney    39.72%   
Clinton    52.90%    Obama      56.70%
Johnson    4.78%    Johnson      1.34%
Stein         2.53%    Stein          1.11%
Others       3.74%    Others        1.13%

So if Jefferson existed, CA would be the most Dem state in USA, overtaking HI.  OR would lean Dem around the same level as WA (which would make sense).  OR would also pretty much have zero swing from 2012 to 2016 which would make it similar to WA.  So OR without counties that went to JF would make it a clone of WA.  JF would go GOP in 2016 with a margin 13.5% which would make it like SC with a Trump swing of around 2% which would be similar to SC.  So JF would be another SC while OR would be just like WA while CA becomes the most pro-Dem state in USA. 

[Nym90]

Pretty sure Jefferson wouldn't have voted Dem since 1964, though 1976 perhaps was close.

[Young Conservative]

Jefferson being a state would be great for Republicans. How many electoral votes would it have?

[Bigby]

Jefferson being a state would be great for Republicans. How many electoral votes would it have?

Probably four or five. California Jefferson on its own would be 4 electoral votes, I believe.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Saying that El Dorado (and even Placer) Counties would be part of Jefferson is a real stretch.