US market cap as a % world market cap reaches new high since 2006

[jaichind]

For personal investment purposes I keep track of the total market cap of each country as a percentage of world market cap.  As of today the US market cap reached 37.8% which is the highest this has been since early 2006.  This is more impressive than it seems because this took place during a period where the market cap of Greater China (PRC+HK) has surged from around 4.5% 2004-2006 period to 16.6% today.  US market cap has slowly made gains against European and Japanese market cap since 2010 but it has surged since Trump's election.  Right before Trump's election it was at 36.1%.  At least in market cap, Trump has made American great again

[jaichind]

BTW

Since his election on Nov. 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 8% through Wednesday Dec 15th, the biggest gain in the first five weeks that greeted any president since 1900.

Financial shares have done most of the heavy lifting amid speculation that regulations will ease under Trump.  Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and American Express Co. have surged more than 13 percent since election for the best performance in the Dow.

[ag]

BTW

Since his election on Nov. 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 8% through Wednesday Dec 15th, the biggest gain in the first five weeks that greeted any president since 1900.

Financial shares have done most of the heavy lifting amid speculation that regulations will ease under Trump.  Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and American Express Co. have surged more than 13 percent since election for the best performance in the Dow.

I guess, they are expecting monopoly rents.

[jaichind]

Some of my Clinton voting friends (the ones which were McCain-Romney-Clinton) have since moved over to see some silver lining in Trump's victory especially in light of the strong rally in equities.  Many of them see deregulations and tax cuts as quite simulative and quite profitable for them personally.  Many of them ploughed deep into equities before the election, expecting a Clinton victory.  I did the same even as I voted for Trump.  To our shock election night Trump won.  Then to our delight, our bad equity bet actually paid off despite guessing the results wrong completely and rewarded with a very strong Trump rally. 

Anyway I think the Trump rally is a bit overextended right and I am already shifting out of equities.  The assumption is that the Trump will get all sort of tax code changes (corporate and personal) through.  While he will most likely to be able to do that the risk is that using budget reconciliation gives him a tiny margin of 2 in the Senate.

[Beet]

It turns out deregulation is good for the economy.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It turns out deregulation is good for the economy.

More like good for a few months until the middle class drops off and can no longer spend anything to compensate for the government spending drop. Wait until total collapse!

[DC Al Fine]

Anyway I think the Trump rally is a bit overextended right and I am already shifting out of equities.  The assumption is that the Trump will get all sort of tax code changes (corporate and personal) through.  While he will most likely to be able to do that the risk is that using budget reconciliation gives him a tiny margin of 2 in the Senate.

Do you think its wise to use tactical asset allocation like this. I've seen a few acquaintances get burned in this manner.

[jaichind]

Anyway I think the Trump rally is a bit overextended right and I am already shifting out of equities.  The assumption is that the Trump will get all sort of tax code changes (corporate and personal) through.  While he will most likely to be able to do that the risk is that using budget reconciliation gives him a tiny margin of 2 in the Senate.

Do you think its wise to use tactical asset allocation like this. I've seen a few acquaintances get burned in this manner.

I usually do not.  I usually only do it when I somehow got a windfall profit and I used the windfall, which I view as "undeserved", to gamble on some recent event.  In 2016 I made gambles twice that did not fall in that pattern.  First was Brexit where I bet on European equities before the vote since I was convinced Remain would win.  I lost that gamble and I was lucky that I ended up flat when it could have been a lot worse.  Then I was convinced that Clinton was going to win, mostly by talk by my friends.  I think even I was convinced by group-think by my Clinton voting friends, many of whom have much better investment records than myself, even as I voted Trump and insisted that Trump will do better than polls project.  I was just lucky I was not burned here because we were totally off.  Rotating out of equities now is more about getting back to my neutral allocation. 

You are right.  Most likely I will not invest like this in a while.  I was just lucky that I did not get burned in 2016.

[jaichind]

Another way to view US market cap  in light of the surge in emerging markets is to look at US market cap as a percentage of all Developed markets.  In 2003 this was 56%.  Then it fell to around 48% in the 2007-2011 period.  From 2011 to 2016 it moved up to to 58% by Nov 2016.  Then after Trump's election it surged to 59.5% which is pretty much a record in the post 2000 world.  So far this US Market cap surge post election should earn Trump the title "Trump the Great."  All hail Trump !!!

[Meclazine for Israel]

Clearly, market analysts have a strategy to follow based on Trumps election.

The Australian dollar is getting thumped and gold is going down.

I am trying to get a feel for the direction of the US economy under Trump, but my feelings are mixed.