Minnesota 2020 = Arizona 1996?

[MT Treasurer]

I see some interesting parallels here. Of course it depends on who the Ds nominate and how Trump's approvals are, but in 2020, Minnesota will have voted Democratic for president for 44 years (since 1976). In 1996, Arizona had voted Republican since 1952 (also for 44 years), until Clinton narrowly won it in the same year because of Perot, Dole's weaknesses among seniors and Hispanics and the attack ads against him in the GOP primary there.

Could we see Minnesota finally ending its Democratic winning streak in presidential elections in 2020? IIRC, this year was also the first time in history the state was more R than the nation as a whole.

[Xing]

I'm not sure we should be looking to how many years it's been since a state went Democratic/Republican to determine its fate. For Trump to win Minnesota, he'd have to hold down the gains he made among rural voters in the state, while also doing better among urban/suburban voters. Sure, that could happen, but I think it's more likely that only one of those two things will happen. Either way, if he wins Minnesota in 2020, it'll be because he's popular, not because of some sort of internal electoral clock.

[JustinTimeCuber]

I think Minnesota and Arizona will have almost exactly the same margin in 2020, with Arizona getting more Democratic and Minnesota getting slightly more Republican.

[TDAS04]

I don't think so, as long as Trump loses the popular vote.

[Heisenberg]

Just remembered: Going into 1996, Arizona had he longest R voting streak (1964 wiped out all other states, except in the LA-MS-AL-GA-SC chain where they all never voted for Ike), and 1984 took care of all states except Minnesota, which still has the longest D streak.

[JJC]

I think Minnesota and Arizona will have almost exactly the same margin in 2020, with Arizona getting more Democratic and Minnesota getting slightly more Republican.

It's destined to happen. In fact, I believe that in the long term the entire geopolitical map will flip, with the northeast going to the GOP and the south going to the Dems.

And I entirely blame the left's identity politics for this.

[Devils30]

I don't think the left is going with the Booker/Harris coalition in 2020. The Bernie/Warren voters are younger and I could see a hard swing back leftwards in the Midwest with Warren or Brown as nominee. The elitist wing of the Democratic Party isn't terribly large. If you take the Bernie voters from 2016 and add more minorities, it's a clear win for the left.

[Bismarck]

I don't think the left is going with the Booker/Harris coalition in 2020. The Bernie/Warren voters are younger and I could see a hard swing back leftwards in the Midwest with Warren or Brown as nominee. The elitist wing of the Democratic Party isn't terribly large. If you take the Bernie voters from 2016 and add more minorities, it's a clear win for the left.

The idea that there is this huge base of far left people in the rural Midwest who didn't vote is a fallacy. Unless Trump is very unpopular (which is very possible of course) I think it's more likely that a far left candidate just repels the gains Hillary made in places like the Milwaukee suburbs.