Which states that were close this year are unlikely to be close in 2020?
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  Which states that were close this year are unlikely to be close in 2020?
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Author Topic: Which states that were close this year are unlikely to be close in 2020?  (Read 702 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: December 24, 2016, 12:37:49 AM »

You can define close however you like. There are several possibilities, depending on how Trump fares, but I'll be #edgy and say that Maine is unlikely to be as close.
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2016, 12:45:05 AM »

If Bernie is the nominee, he'll beat Trump by double digits in New Hampshire.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2016, 01:01:44 AM »

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2016, 02:31:02 AM »
« Edited: December 25, 2016, 02:21:09 PM by L.D. Smith, Nobody's Favorite Since 2014 »

Too many things to factor in: But I'll go with the base assumptions that Trump stays in for re-election, the Democrats attempt to go left again, and states roughly remain the same.

2 scenario's assume the consequences mirror 1976-1980, 2 assume 2000-2004, and 2 assume Trump is somehow gonna actually be competent/ become reasonably popular.

1. Trump really is Carter, Democrats nominate the anti-Reagan.

Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nebraska CD-2, Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico , Virginia, North Carolina

New close states: Georgia,  Iowa, Texas, Florida, Utah, Maine CD-2

2. Trump really is Carter, Democrats nominate their John Anderson (or George H.W. Bush '80) somehow instead

Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Nebraska CD-2, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia

New close states: New Hampshire, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina

3. Trump is actually Dubya, Democrats nominate a non-screaming Dean [because Dean probably woulda' won Ohio]

Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nebraska CD-2, Michigan, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota

New close states: North Carolina,Georgia, Florida, Maine CD-2

4. Trump is actually Dubya, Democrats nominate Kerry again

New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina

New close states: Colorado, Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Virginia


5. Trump is actually comfortably popular, Democrats continue the Hillary path anyway

New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nebraska CD-2, North Carolina, Georgia

New close states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Rhode Island, Illinois

 

6. Trump is actually comfortably popular, Democrats try out the Sanders style

Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nebraska CD-2, Nevada, New Hampshire

New close states: Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico , Michigan , Pennsylvania, Maine


Still not accounting for impeachments, handovers to Pence midway through, declining re-election, or actual and complete depolarization in his favor.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2016, 10:48:16 AM »

Arizona and Georgia in my opinion.
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SWE
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« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2016, 10:50:04 AM »

Minnesota
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Figueira
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« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2016, 10:55:03 AM »

If they count as being close this year, Virginia and Colorado.
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Pericles
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« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2016, 02:37:08 PM »

Call back in 2020 and even then we'll probably get it wrong.
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Ljube
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2016, 06:55:40 PM »

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: December 25, 2016, 12:08:48 PM »

I don't think North Carolina and Wisconsin will be particularly close.

Should Gauleiter Walker be defeated in 2018, then Wisconsin will go Democratic. Republicans can still have a huge stench in North Carolina, which will hurt a Republican nominee.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #10 on: December 25, 2016, 08:44:19 PM »

Minnesota, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire
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