2020 Election what if Trump unpopular

[JayJay85]

What if President Trump unpopular like Jimmy Carter or George H.W Bush was to be come a one term president due to a civil unrest, economic collapse who could beat him or how would electoral map will look like?

I think Kamala Harris pres and Tulsi Gabbard VP would be on same ticket (a balnce ticket)
with him losing, Trump getting 114 Electoral votes and Harris getting 424 electoral votes, With Harris picking up PA, MI, WI, OH, ME-1, NC, GA, TX narrowly, IA narrowly, AZ.
popular vote Trump getting around 45% and Harris getting 53%, 1% for others.

but if Trump stays in approval range of 48%-51% then gets reelected with 280 electoral votes or so (only with him losing MI and WI).

[MLM]

If his first term is absolutely terrible and looses support from even the most rural rust belt areas (this map is the absolute worst I think Trump would do in 2020);

If Trump is very bad but is able to keep some hope with his base;

If Trump is pretty bad;

[Mr. Smith]

I don't see Trump losing Missouri or South Carolina even in a worst case scenario.  Lots of uneducated whites in both states and they tend to vote against their own interests anyways (e.g., Obamacare, taxes).

Carter wasn't supposed to lose Massachusetts, Arkansas, The Carolinas, Tennessee, or Kentucky either.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

1980 elections are not possible anymore with this polarized environment. Which is why Obama won by the same % as Bush but got about 60 less EVs.

[Pericles]

If Trump is Carter Bernie Sanders can be Reagan.

Bernie Sanders/Cory Booker-Democratic: 406 EV 53.24%
President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 132 EV 42.76%

[Figueira]

I don't see Trump losing Missouri or South Carolina even in a worst case scenario.  Lots of uneducated whites in both states and they tend to vote against their own interests anyways (e.g., Obamacare, taxes).

Carter wasn't supposed to lose Massachusetts, Arkansas, The Carolinas, Tennessee, or Kentucky either.

...Stop. Not everything will be like 1980 reversed.

The point still stands that Non Swing Voter's "WWC will always Republican" thing is wrong. MLM's map isn't exactly a 1980-level landslide. I do doubt very much that Trump will lose Missouri, though. South Carolina is also pretty unlikely.

[Hindsight was 2020]

If Trump is Carter unpopular: Booker/Bernie Sanders 407 vs Trump/Pence 131
If Trump is Bush 41 unpopular: Bullock/John Morgan 326 vs Trump/Pence 212

[GlobeSoc]

If Trump is Carter Bernie Sanders can be Reagan.

Bernie Sanders/Cory Booker-Democratic: 406 EV 53.24%
President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 132 EV 42.76%

Flip Iowa, Georgia, Texas, and Missouri for what I would expect that map to be. Maybe Indiana and Montana too.

[bagelman]

If Trump is Carter unpopular: Booker...

nooooooooooooo

[Pericles]

If Trump is Carter Bernie Sanders can be Reagan.

Bernie Sanders/Cory Booker-Democratic: 406 EV 53.24%
President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 132 EV 42.76%

Flip Iowa, Georgia, Texas, and Missouri for what I would expect that map to be. Maybe Indiana and Montana too.

Trump won Iowa more than Texas and Texas is trending D, plus the bottom of the D ticket is from Texas. Georgia went to Trump by only 5%. Trump got 57% of the vote in Missouri. This is roughly a pretty uniform swing from 2016, adjusted for a different Democrat ticket.

[Figueira]

The point still stands that Non Swing Voter's "WWC will always Republican" thing is wrong.

But his "White college-educated voters will continue trending Democratic" thing is right or what?

No.

[tambrosia]

I'd go with Harris/Franken; I love Kamala but can't stand Tulsi and we need a regional balance!

[Xing]

Are we talking about an approval rating in the low 40s or the low 20s?

If he's unpopular, but not to an extreme degree, he probably loses by a margin similar to what we saw in 2012.

If his approval ratings are historically low, and he truly tanks to an extreme degree, then we'll probably see something resembling a landslide, though he'll win more than 5 states.

[OneJ]

If Trump is Carter Bernie Sanders can be Reagan.

Bernie Sanders/Cory Booker-Democratic: 406 EV 53.24%
President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 132 EV 42.76%

This map is most plausible to me. I don't think SC is going anywhere yet (remembering this year's results), but it could swing closer to Democratic. Texas isn't totally impossible for Trump to lose. It depends on how he handles immigration. He either:
A. Pisses off Latinos for giving the boot to many illegal immigrants trying to make a living.
B. Pisses off the White Working Class for not fulfilling his promises on immigration (remember a large portion of White voters didn't really care for the economy but really liked Trump's rhetoric on immigration and terrorism. After all, Hillary won those who said that the economy was most important.). Trump won't lose Texas this way, but he might lose MI and PA. WI is also possible.

[MLM]

I also doubt Trump would ever lose MO but I was going with the absolute worst I could see. SC I think will be a surprisingly close but you are right it won't go D in 2016. Trump losing UT is very possible in my mind especially if McMullin runs a good campaign.

[pbrower2a]

A historically-bad election for an incumbent President is best marked in 1932  (Hoover having no clue about how to deal with the worst economic meltdown possible at the time) or Carter (inflation and the hostage situation in Iran). 

Hoover got 59 electoral votes, then 11.1% of the electoral votes available.  That is roughly 60 electoral votes today as a percentage.

Carter got 49 electoral votes.  For the mean between those.... let's see how he gets 54 or so electoral votes.

This is a mathematical model and not a prediction. The scenario? He or Mike Pence, his successor, faces economic or military distress. Protests, strikes, and riots are seemingly everywhere but strongly-Democratic states.