Nationwide likely D
Trump 51-46-3
Notable deviations from the election
in reality:
1/ Due to decreased black and home state enthusiasm Trump could not crack 60 in Maryland and Illinois and 70 in Hawaii. However, he still went away with 58 in Maryland, 56 in Delaware, 57 in Illinois and 64 in Hawaii.
2/ Benefiting from a home state bump, Trump won by a lopsided 67-29-4 in New York State, with 85-10-5 in NYC. He swept every county except Wyoming, Allegany and Hamilton, making it the most democratic state in the nation.
3/ Trump's coal revival make WV fell to Dem's column after 12 years, instead of further swing to Reps.
4/ As said in argument 1, declined Black turnout kept NC in Reps' column, by a comfortable 8 percentage point margin of victory.
5/ Being a Mormon, Romney won by 76 percent in UT, demolishing Trump in every county. He got 62 percent in Salt Lake County and 93 percent in Utah County, setting a breathtaking record for Republicans.