California independence updates

[justfollowingtheelections]

http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20161224/is-california-splitting-away-group-believes-california-should-form-its-own-nation?source=most_viewed

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[Ronnie]

In the far-fetched scenario that the hypothetical proposition in question even makes it on the ballot, I would be absolutely astonished if it doesn't go down in a historic landslide. 

[bagelman]

http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20161224/is-california-splitting-away-group-believes-california-should-form-its-own-nation?source=most_viewed

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[DrScholl]

Uh... even in California, this would lose 70%-30%. It might even provide a rally round the flag effect for Trump in 2020 and get him to 40% in the state.

Nothing would get Trump 40% of the vote in California. Just because people might vote against a secession effort doesn't mean they suddenly become Trump fanatics.

[JJC]

Uh... even in California, this would lose 70%-30%. It might even provide a rally round the flag effect for Trump in 2020 and get him to 40% in the state.

Nothing would get Trump 40% of the vote in California. Just because people might vote against a secession effort doesn't mean they suddenly become Trump fanatics.

One thing that got completely ignored during this election is the fact that there was no GOP senate candidate running in California. Unfortunately, they adopted that nonsensical LA system where the top two vote getters are put on the general ballot.

Imagine how many republicans stayed home because they knew there was absolutely no point in showing up. Trump wasn't going to win the state, and they had no Republican candidate to vote for in the senate. So why bother?

I guarantee that this cost Trump at least 5 percentage points.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Imagine how many republicans stayed home because they knew there was absolutely no point in showing up.

I'm sure people who didn't vote for trump because he couldn't win would happily turn out for a republican senate candidate who couldn't win.

[DrScholl]

Uh... even in California, this would lose 70%-30%. It might even provide a rally round the flag effect for Trump in 2020 and get him to 40% in the state.

Nothing would get Trump 40% of the vote in California. Just because people might vote against a secession effort doesn't mean they suddenly become Trump fanatics.

One thing that got completely ignored during this election is the fact that there was no GOP senate candidate running in California. Unfortunately, they adopted that nonsensical LA system where the top two vote getters are put on the general ballot.

Imagine how many republicans stayed home because they knew there was absolutely no point in showing up. Trump wasn't going to win the state, and they had no Republican candidate to vote for in the senate. So why bother?

I guarantee that this cost Trump at least 5 percentage points.

That doesn't really add up. He over performed Romney in the most rural, Republican areas of the state and when you go further down ballot, plenty of Republican incumbents survived despite Trump tanking in their districts. That doesn't suggest that Republican turnout was down enough to cost Trump 5%.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Uh... even in California, this would lose 70%-30%. It might even provide a rally round the flag effect for Trump in 2020 and get him to 40% in the state.

Nothing would get Trump 40% of the vote in California. Just because people might vote against a secession effort doesn't mean they suddenly become Trump fanatics.

One thing that got completely ignored during this election is the fact that there was no GOP senate candidate running in California. Unfortunately, they adopted that nonsensical LA system where the top two vote getters are put on the general ballot.

Imagine how many republicans stayed home because they knew there was absolutely no point in showing up. Trump wasn't going to win the state, and they had no Republican candidate to vote for in the senate. So why bother?

I guarantee that this cost Trump at least 5 percentage points.

Why is it nonsensical?  A Sanchez/Harris was more competitive than any race between Harris and a Republican.  If the real race is the Democratic primary why not move it November when more people vote and also give the opportunity to everyone, including non-Democrats to vote?

[Mr. Smith]

In the far-fetched scenario that the hypothetical proposition in question even makes it on the ballot, I would be absolutely astonished if it doesn't go down in a historic landslide. 

Brexit was supposed to be hypothetical, and when it wasn't (Thanks Cameron), it was supposed to go up in smoke...neither happened.

Enough trump failures, enough far-right agenda advancing at the cost of Californian values, enough polarization in general, enough people not caring jack about the consequences and this could very well gain traction AND pass.

Highly improbable [as in, another attempt by SNP to take Scotland out of the UK is more likely], but not impossible.

[justfollowingtheelections]

In the far-fetched scenario that the hypothetical proposition in question even makes it on the ballot, I would be absolutely astonished if it doesn't go down in a historic landslide. 

Brexit was supposed to be hypothetical, and when it wasn't (Thanks Cameron), it was supposed to go up in smoke...neither happened.

Enough trump failures, enough far-right agenda advancing at the cost of Californian values, enough polarization in general, enough people not caring jack about the consequences and this could very well gain traction AND pass.

Highly improbable [as in, another attempt by SNP to take Scotland out of the UK is more likely], but not impossible.

Exactly.  Lets not dismiss this so soon.  No one expected the U.S.S.R. to collapse either.  But it happened.

[The_Doctor]

California turnout was 8% higher than 2012. Since they're now VBM I expect that Democrats will have a vastly easier time winning California. Also VBM probably saved Clinton's bacon in Colorado.

I don't think the 61-31 margin will substantially change in 2020.

[Fusionmunster]

In the far-fetched scenario that the hypothetical proposition in question even makes it on the ballot, I would be absolutely astonished if it doesn't go down in a historic landslide. 

Brexit was supposed to be hypothetical, and when it wasn't (Thanks Cameron), it was supposed to go up in smoke...neither happened.

Enough trump failures, enough far-right agenda advancing at the cost of Californian values, enough polarization in general, enough people not caring jack about the consequences and this could very well gain traction AND pass.

Highly improbable [as in, another attempt by SNP to take Scotland out of the UK is more likely], but not impossible.

Exactly.  Lets not dismiss this so soon.  No one expected the U.S.S.R. to collapse either.  But it happened.

The U.S.S.R consisted of countries with different languages and cultures that had existed before Russia forcibly incorporated them. Independence movements in the USA that spring up everytime democrats or republicans(Texas) loose a presidential election is not comparable.

[muon2]

In the far-fetched scenario that the hypothetical proposition in question even makes it on the ballot, I would be absolutely astonished if it doesn't go down in a historic landslide. 

Brexit was supposed to be hypothetical, and when it wasn't (Thanks Cameron), it was supposed to go up in smoke...neither happened.

Enough trump failures, enough far-right agenda advancing at the cost of Californian values, enough polarization in general, enough people not caring jack about the consequences and this could very well gain traction AND pass.

Highly improbable [as in, another attempt by SNP to take Scotland out of the UK is more likely], but not impossible.

Your post causes me to think that there may be another variable that needs to come into play. Even if Dem voters in CA want independence, I strongly doubt that the national Dems could support it in any way. That would extend to most elected Dems in CA, particularly in Congress. I think that for this to gain traction, there would need to be a CA independence party in the mold of the SNP. They would need to start working the top-two primary system to get elected officials who were formally free of the national Dems, but could work with them as SNP does with Labor.

This CAIP might concentrate on state government. Given the supermajorities for the Dems in Sacramento, there wouldn't be too much fear of this giving the Pubs a chamber. If CAIP tactically concentrates on seats with relatively small numbers of Pub votes, they can use the top-two to make Nov races a head-to-head with the Dems. In Pub areas they can try to beat the Dem in the primary and make it Pub-CAIP in Nov; the worst that would happen is a Pub-Pub ballot in a district that already was likely Pub.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Uh... even in California, this would lose 70%-30%. It might even provide a rally round the flag effect for Trump in 2020 and get him to 40% in the state.

After two years of Worst Trump (or even Pretty Bad Trump) this could be far closer than anyone thinks right now. Especially if he's fighting with Silicon Valley.  A hypothetical liberal-libertarian anti-Trump alliance could have real legs in CA.

[Sir Mohamed]

I doubt a secession effort would/will be successful. Even if voters approve it (what I question), congress would never allow the departure of the state. Because if they do, it could be the end of the union as we know it. It would help efforts in other states to become an independent country, most notably TX.

I'm also still confidant that secession would do more harm than good for CA. Sure, the Trumpster is a serious concern, but he won't be president forever.

[DrScholl]

I doubt a secession effort would/will be successful. Even if voters approve it (what I question), congress would never allow the departure of the state. Because if they do, it could be the end of the union as we know it. It would help efforts in other states to become an independent country, most notably TX.

I'm also still confidant that secession would do more harm than good for CA. Sure, the Trumpster is a serious concern, but he won't be president forever.

I don't know. Is there really anything that would stop Trump from refusing to accept an election result or recognize term limits? I could see him ignoring both of those things based on his arrogance.

[Sir Mohamed]

I doubt a secession effort would/will be successful. Even if voters approve it (what I question), congress would never allow the departure of the state. Because if they do, it could be the end of the union as we know it. It would help efforts in other states to become an independent country, most notably TX.

I'm also still confidant that secession would do more harm than good for CA. Sure, the Trumpster is a serious concern, but he won't be president forever.

I don't know. Is there really anything that would stop Trump from refusing to accept an election result or recognize term limits? I could see him ignoring both of those things based on his arrogance.

Call me naive, but I think if it gets really bad and he tries to ignore/overrule existing law, he gets impeached and the story is over. I don't hope it for the better of the country and because I have no desire the homophobic radio talk show host takes over.

[Fusionmunster]

Uh... even in California, this would lose 70%-30%. It might even provide a rally round the flag effect for Trump in 2020 and get him to 40% in the state.

After two years of Worst Trump (or even Pretty Bad Trump) this could be far closer than anyone thinks right now. Especially if he's fighting with Silicon Valley.  A hypothetical liberal-libertarian anti-Trump alliance could have real legs in CA.

Every time the Dems lose an election, Californian independence gets brought up. Every time Republicans lose an election, Texan independence gets brought up. The other 48 states wish California and Texas would get over themselves.

[Wells]

It is not going to happen. That's all.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Uh... even in California, this would lose 70%-30%. It might even provide a rally round the flag effect for Trump in 2020 and get him to 40% in the state.

After two years of Worst Trump (or even Pretty Bad Trump) this could be far closer than anyone thinks right now. Especially if he's fighting with Silicon Valley.  A hypothetical liberal-libertarian anti-Trump alliance could have real legs in CA.

Every time the Dems lose an election, Californian independence gets brought up. Every time Republicans lose an election, Texan independence gets brought up. The other 48 states wish California and Texas would get over themselves.

Maybe those other 48 states should give California a few more Senators.

[Fusionmunster]

Uh... even in California, this would lose 70%-30%. It might even provide a rally round the flag effect for Trump in 2020 and get him to 40% in the state.

After two years of Worst Trump (or even Pretty Bad Trump) this could be far closer than anyone thinks right now. Especially if he's fighting with Silicon Valley.  A hypothetical liberal-libertarian anti-Trump alliance could have real legs in CA.

Every time the Dems lose an election, Californian independence gets brought up. Every time Republicans lose an election, Texan independence gets brought up. The other 48 states wish California and Texas would get over themselves.

Maybe those other 48 states should give California a few more Senators.

That's not how it works sadly. If California feels underrepresented, they could split into multiple states to better represent they're regional interests however.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Didn't we fight a five-year war over this question?

Even if it was to pass, the federal government shouldn't recognize it. If California was to take up arms to secede, the rebellion should be put down with the minimal possible force.

[Beet]

Since the election, many people have been saying California shouldn't decide the fate of the nation. So why should the nation decide the fate of California? An amicable split would be a far better.