Was the West Virginia gubernatorial race even winnable for Republicans?

[MT Treasurer]

I know it sounds like a crazy question, but was this race even winnable for the GOP with a Democratic candidate like Justice (who is basically a Democratic version of Trump)? Or did Cole run a poor campaign?

[PAK Man]

I've often said that West Virginia isn't a Democratic or a Republican state; it's a coal state. As long as you support coal, you'll be supported by West Virginians, at least that's what it seems to me.

Before 2000, Democrats won West Virginia very easily at the presidential level. What killed them? Al Gore's environmental stance. Since then, most Democrats have been pro-environment and are perceived as anti-coal. But, if you're vocally pro-coal and a Democrat in the state, you'll win.

I saw a very fascinating mini-documentary on Facebook that visited the poorest county in West Virginia, which also happened to be the one county in the country that gave Trump his biggest victory margin in the primaries. Nearly everybody interviewed said they didn't agree with him on every issue (ie, his comments on minorities) but they truly believed him when they said he was going to make America great again. They took at as meaning he was going to bring all of their coal jobs back. The crew even somehow tracked down an OBAMA voter who said he wasn't going to vote for Clinton because he said she was anti-coal.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

An A-Lister like Morrissey would have won. But Rs settled for the rather pathetic Cole, who was not strong in name rec. or ability to campaign.

[Maxwell]

Morrissey under-performed Trump pretty badly and did much worse than I expected an incumbent Republican in West Virginia to do. I suppose that has to do with West Virginia not really being Republican but more anti-modern Democrat. I am not sure Morrissey would've won, and on top of that Morrissey is a carpetbagger just like Mooney (this time from New Jersey).

As soon as Justice was nominated it became pretty tough for Republicans to win. I have no doubt Cole would've beat Goodwin by at least 5, and beat Kessler by quite a bit more.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Morrissey under-performed Trump pretty badly and did much worse than I expected an incumbent Republican in West Virginia to do. I suppose that has to do with West Virginia not really being Republican but more anti-modern Democrat. I am not sure Morrissey would've won, and on top of that Morrissey is a carpetbagger just like Mooney (this time from New Jersey).

As soon as Justice was nominated it became pretty tough for Republicans to win. I have no doubt Cole would've beat Goodwin by at least 5, and beat Kessler by quite a bit more.

All the Republican candidates for row officer underperformed Trump, which makes sense given that the state Democratic party is viewed in a different light than Clinton is. Clinton was the worst possible candidate for the state, and did laughably bad as a result. 

[Potus]

The money situation was pretty unbelievable. I remember early on in the cycle thinking that RGA and the Cole SuperPAC would take a more active role throughout the entire year. In the two weeks leading up to the Democrat primary, the fact that Justice is a jerk to cops, screws over business partners, and very illegally evading his obligations to the government were all very salient, new, and a chance to drive the narrative. There was data detailing how many voters were supporting Jim Justice for his business experience. We are talking a huge chunk of Democrat primary voters, the most loyal general election voters. Basically, the non-Justice Democrat was DoA in the fall. It was clear to everyone, too. This wasn't just some special circumstance found in the data. It was pretty much conventional wisdom that Justice was their best candidate, Kessler would get annihilated, and Goodwin was sort of an empty suit who was even more bearable than Justice.

Back to just the money situation, Justice spent an ungodly amount of money. I'm always a bit surprised that everyone is confused when candidates whose only substantial media presence is in the last month, month and a half of the campaign lose. This was the biggest lesson, for me as someone who gets involved in campaigns, of the 2012 presidential election. Early money is not wasted money. Justice had free reign to decide how people see him. The hefty, nice, maybe a little dumb but apparently gets the job done businessman who speaks like a lot of folks used to in my state. That was a pretty alright guy that you can't really assign all of these bad things to. He spent an enormous amount of his own money selling that during primary season, during the summer, and it made the RGA attacks in the fall less likely to stick.

There are some other tangential things that would have narrowed the margin, but added together, I'm not sure they would have changed the outcome. The tax increase during special session comes to mind. It was very high profile, lots of folks in the activist community were paying attention. Cole was the one who didn't promise to avoid tax increases if he want. Jim Justice promised no new taxes and to keep spending where it is. It's nonsense, but when your candidate is either not smart enough to know what he's saying or is a terrific, tax-dodging liar that he can say it anyway, you've hit the electoral jackpot. Problem is, it means he's a bad person and unlikely to be a very good governor.

Other small stuff, things like what appearances were done. I don't really think that is a reason things turned out the way it did, but I remember some chatter among political folks being concerned that Cole was at a bunch of Business and Industry Council, Chamber of Commerce events and Lincoln Day Dinners. Maybe it's a product of data showing the damage of the tax hikes to activist enthusiasm. Like I said, I don't think this did it, but the chattering class thought all of those people were already voting for him.

I know this is going to sound like corporate crony EVIL CONSERVATIVE backdoor reasoning. However, West Virginia has extraordinarily strict contribution limits. $1,000 for the primary. $1,000 for the general. At the federal level, when you get a max contribution, you can do real work with it. The result of this is that those most able to self-fund are hugely advantaged by the system. Justice cut his own campaign millions, Cole funded himself with hundreds of thousands. Matching state contribution limits to federal limits would open the door to a lot of people to run and be competitive.

[MT Treasurer]

^Wow, thanks for that comment, Potus! It really explains what happened in WV this year. Do you think the WV GOP is capable of beating Manchin in 2018 or will they end up losing that race as well?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Can't resist the Justice

[Deblano]

Can't resist the Justice