President Forever Round III Tiebreakers

[Erc]

The main part of Round III is over, and now we move onto the tiebreakers.

5 Democrats and 5 Republicans won their series...not necessarily the ones we expected to win, however.

However, only 4 of each can advance to Round IV--so one person from each party will be knocked off before these tiebreakers are done.

For the Republicans,
1) Supersoulty, 3-0, 440 EV/g
2) MHS2002, 395.3 EV/g
3) Wildcard, 306.3 EV/g

have guaranteed berths in the next round.

4) PBrunsel, 3-1
5) Ernest, 3-2-1

Will have to fight for the fourth slot.  PBrunsel, being 1.5 games ahead of Ernest already, will have a decided advantage, and will only have to win one game more than Ernest to advance.


For the Democrats:
1) Gabu 3-0

is guaranteed a berth.

2) Ilikeverin 270.2 EV/g
3) Hughento 269.2 EV/g
4) nini2287 267.4 EV/g (1337 EV total)
5) Alcon 262.2 EV/g

will be fighting to not be in that fifth slot.

[Erc]

The tiebreakers will be settled by having all Democrats play against a standard Republican, and all Republicans play against a standard Democrat.  A player is guaranteed a berth when they move two or more games ahead of any other player.

The standard Republican will be Jake (apologies to Alcon).
The standard Democrat will be Blerpiez.


First results to be posted tomorrow.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

have guaranteed berths in the next round.

4) PBrunsel, 3-1
5) Ernest, 3-2-1

Will have to fight for the fourth slot.  PBrunsel, being 1.5 games ahead of Ernest already, will have a decided advantage, and will only have to win one game more than Ernest to advance.

Don't be counting me out just yet.  I was facing a higher seeded opponent, yet was 5-1 in the popular vote, and averaged 286.3 EV  per game to PBrunsel's 279 EV's in Round III.  Granted, I'll need to to have some good luck for a change, but I could still make it to Round IV!

[nini2287]

Bump.  We have to see who gets elminated

[Erc]

Republican Tiebreakers will be settled first.

To expedite what could be a very long process, percentages will not be included in the maps.

Round 1:

PBrunsel:

Long and nasty game, with some horrid scandals being thrown against Brunsel near the end.

Peter Blerpiez (D-MA): 64,477,824, 51%, 281 EV
Paul Brunsel (R-IA): 59,211,921, 47%, 257 EV



Blerpiez broke 60% in AL...

Closest states: Michigan, followed by Missouri.

PBrunsel is now 3-2...and will thus not knock out Ernest in the first round.


Ernest:

Blerpiez had caught up to the point where he had a shot by November 1...but Ernest still had a decided advantage.

Ernest Bunbury (R-SC): 64,073,383, 51%, 339 EV
Peter Blerpiez (D-MA): 59,742,351, 48%, 199 EV



Ernest is now ahead by half a game.

[Max Power]

Blerpiez broke 60% in AL...

That's wierd....

[Gabu]

Blerpiez broke 60% in AL...

That's wierd....

I broke 60% in Mississippi and won Texas and Oklahoma at the same time.  Weirder things have happened.

[Platypus]

G'day Erc...Erc? Where's Erc fellas?

O HNO!!!! Erc's KIDNAPPPED!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!111!!!1!1!!!!!1!11!!!!!1

[Erc]

Oh Noes!

Sorry about the delays here, folks.


I will try to get these tiebreakers finished up by the end of the week...

But then I'll pretty much be away until the end of August.

So don't hold your breath to see who the winner is.

[12th Doctor]

So, are we ever acctually going to finish this thing, or what?

[Gabu]

So, are we ever acctually going to finish this thing, or what?

He said he'll be away until the end of August in the post above yours, so presumably yes, but not for a while.

[Platypus]

bumpiddy bump

[nini2287]

bump now that Erc is back

[Erc]

Hmmm...I had run a few more games of these tiebreakers back in August, but didn't post them.

Can't remember the results, can't find where I put them on the computer--so I'll just run them again.

Results up later this evening.


Apologies for not doing anything the last...4 months.  Got tired of having to make all the maps, and work caught up with me.  But there's no better incentive to work than some competition...

[Erc]

Republican Tiebreaker, Round 2:

Blerpiez v. PBrunsel

PBrunsel had the advantage throughout this campaign--but it was looking pretty close on election night.  However, Blerpiez' last-minute hopes were dashed--Minnesota went Republican by the slimmest of margins, and Blerpiez' last-minute campaign stop in Alabama appeared to have the opposite effect than intended--Brunsel won the state by nearly 15 points.

Paul Brunsel (R-IA): 63,239,859, 50%, 287 EV
Peter Blerpiez (D-MA): 60,621,940, 48%, 251 EV



Blerpiez v. Ernest

Ernest began with a seven-point advantage over Blerpiez....and only relinquished two points of it by election day.

Blerpiez had not completely given up hope, however...if every marginal state went his way, he'd have a shot--but the night did not live up to his expectations.  Vermont, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Minnesota all went to Ernest.  Blerpiez had already conceded the election when the final blow came in--California went to Ernest by 14,000 votes.

Ernest Bunbury (R-SC): 65,524,113, 52%, 389 EV
Peter Blerpiez (D-MA): 57,805,913, 46%, 149 EV



No change...Ernest still leads by half a game.

[Erc]

Round 3:

PBrunsel v. Blerpiez

Brunsel was ahead seven points on election day...but his hopes for victory rested solely on slim leads in Minnesota and California.  The polls showed him up in both places, but who would turn up on election day?

The Republicans.

Paul Brunsel (R-IA): 66,531,512, 53%, 341 EV
Peter Blerpiez (D-MA): 56,610,783, 45%, 197 EV



Ernest v. Blerpiez

Will a Republican win California...again?

These races are beginning to look more and more like '76 each time...going into election day, Ernest was ahead in California but was doing so poorly east of Kansas City that it would come down to the wire this time.

On paper, Ernest had 269 EV's...but was vulnerable in Arizona, New Mexico, and California.

In order to win this, Blerpiez had to hold onto all of his marginals--take the tossups of Kansas, Connecticut, and Iowa--and take one of Ernest's three marginals to break the tie.

All went well for Blerpiez in the early portions of the night--holding onto to his marginals in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Arkansas, and winning Connecticut.  Last-minute campaigning in Kansas put the home of Alf Landon and Bob Dole in his column.  All was going very well...and then New Mexico came in.  Preliminary results put Blerpiez up by 355 votes.  There was jubilation in the Blerpiez camp--but they realized they'd still have to hold onto Washington and Wisconsin--and take either Iowa or California.

And then Iowa declared for Blerpiez.

California went to Ernest by six points...but it didn't really matter.  It all came down to Washington, and the exit polls weren't really looking up for Bunbury...

But he somehow won it anyway [I uttered a mild expletive in surprise when i saw WA turn blue...P4E never ceases to surprise].

Jubilation turned to despair in Boston as Bunbury's EV count ticked up to 272.  The hordes of lawyers descending on Santa Fe found themselves out of a job.

Ernest Bunbury (R-SC): 62,240,764, 50%, 275 EV
Peter Blerpiez (D-MA): 60,985,123, 49%, 263 EV

[Erc]

Round 4:

PBrunsel v. Blerpiez

Brunsel got hit with a moderate scandal right before election day, putting him down one point--would it be enough to prevent him from going to the White House?

A win in North Carolina made it much easier...but without a win someplace else, it wouldn't happen.

Despite the presence of all four candidates in Rhode Island on the last day, it voted pretty much the same way it did in 2004...and everything else went as expected.

Peter Blerpiez (D-MA): 61,935,935, 49%, 270 EV
Paul Brunsel (R-IA): 61,756,582, 49%, 268 EV

Ouch...



If Ernest wins here, he wins the tiebreak.

Ernest v. Blerpiez

This one was coming down to the wire, folks...

8:04 PM:  Vermont, as expected, declares for Blerpiez
      Actual/Expected
   D 7/261
   R 82/252
8:30 PM:  North Carolina, the biggest tossup, declares for Ernest by 8 points.
   D 7/261
   R 97/267
9:00 PM:  Connecticut declares for Blerpiez
   D 14/261
   R 122/267
9:04 PM:  Maryland declares for Ernest by 3000 votes.  Jubilation in South Carolina.
   D 42/261
   R 132/277
9:08 PM:  Missouri declares for Blerpiez
   D 82/261
   R 138/277
9:11 PM:  Pennsylvania declares for Ernest
   D 97/261
   R 166/277
9:13 PM:  Tennessee declares for Blerpiez
   D 112/261
   R 166/277
10:02 PM:  Colorado declares for Ernest.  The crowds start trickling out of Blerpiez headquarters.  Blerpiez quietly concedes to his staff that, barring a recount in Maryland or a miracle victory somewhere in the Plains or Mountain West, this one's over.
   D 121/261
   R 228/277
11:04 PM:  Utah declares for Bunbury.  Blerpiez, deciding not to contest the Maryland results, concedes in a phonecall to Bunbury.
   D 184/261
   R 274/277

Ernest Bunbury (R-SC): 62,316,115, 50%, 277 EV
Peter Blerpiez (D-MA): 61,335,627, 49%, 261 EV



Congratulations, Ernest, you have somehow come from behind to beat PBrunsel and advance to the Elite 8.

PBrunsel...you've been a worthy, worthy candidate, and you definitely deserved to go a long way--but the bad luck that had been afflicting Ernest for the longest time came back and got you twice today--one with Washington, and then again with that two-point squeaker of a loss.

Now, onto the Democrats!

[Erc]

For the Democrats...

2) Ilikeverin 270.2 EV/g
3) Hughento 269.2 EV/g
4) nini2287 267.4 EV/g (1337 EV total)
5) Alcon 262.2 EV/g

will be fighting to see who gets eliminated.  After one player is eliminated (by falling two behind any other player), the rest will be seeded according to updated EV/g.

Their standard opponent, as determined earlier, will be Jake.

Round 1 to begin shortly.

[Gabu]

But there's no better incentive to work than some competition...

Competition?  Nonsense; I'm merely serving as inspiration.

Nonetheless, given that the contestants in mine are different, I'll press on.  It's not like one interferes with the other all that much.

[Erc]

Ilikeverin v. Jake

Nichols was up one going into election day--but Ilikeverin could still pull it off if he won both New Hampshire and Ohio.

Unfortunately, he did not win Indiana.

New Hampshire went to Nichols by a percentage point..but all hope was not lost.  If Ilikeverin pulled off any of Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Arizona, or Louisiana, he could still win.

Ilikeverin's victory in Ohio made this task significantly easier.

But it wasn't to be.

Jake Nichols (R-PA): 62,907,075, 50%, 272 EV
Chris Ilikeverin (D-IN): 60,900,398, 48%, 266 EV

[Erc]

Game 2:

Hughento v. Jake

Nichols nearly fell prey to the Erc Syndrome [losing Texas]--but recovered in the upcoming weeks.

It was going to be close (yet again)--Ohio, Florida, Kansas, and New Mexico would prove critical.

A slim victory in Florida (as the pollsters predicted) gave an early boost to morale for Bartlett's supporters.

A stunning five-point victory in Ohio put Nichols on the defensive--barring a surprise victory in California, it was over.

Hugh Bartlett (D-OR): 62,181,209, 49%, 292 EV
Jake Nichols (R-PA): 61,590,938, 49%, 246 EV



hughento advances to the next round.

[Erc]

nini2287 v. Jake

Holler was pretty clearly the winner of this race.

Nicholas Holler (D-PA): 63,536,186, 50%, 291 EV
Jake Nichols (R-PA): 60,613,685, 48%, 247 EV



nini2287 advances.

[Erc]

Alcon v. Jake (Take 7?)

This one had a *lot* of tossups throughout the race...ranging from Texas to Louisiana to Michigan to California...but then Nichols got hit with a big scandal halfway through October and never quite recovered.

Alcon San Croix (D-WA): 65,238,500, 52%, 302 EV
Jake Nichols (R-PA): 58,182,848, 46%, 236 EV



Alcon apparently wins the non-Cuban Hispanic vote and the election--and advances to the next round.

[Erc]

These lucky three advance:
Hughento: 273 EV/g
nini2287: 271.3 EV/g
Alcon: 268.8 EV/g

Ilikeverin--my apologies, but you just got bad luck.  At least you did get to win Indiana once.

[Platypus]

Bad luck ILV.

Thanks for re-starting this, Erc.

Elite 8, here I come