Was anyone surprised by North Carolina?

[Gabagool102]

In 2016 North Carolina, went to Donald J. Trump with a 3.66% margin of victory , in 2012 Romney picked up the state with a 2.04% margin of victory. Prior to the election, everyone was saying this was gonna be closer than in 2012 , and some media outlets actually still had the state as lean-Clinton. So what happened?

[pppolitics]

Voter suppression happened.

[Inmate Trump]

Russia happened.

[Virginiá]

If you go by the 2012 results - isn't this year's margins in NC similar to how the electorate from 2012 voted? Clinton got less than Obama did nationally, and thus Trump's NC margin was somewhat higher than Romney's.

Also regarding voter suppression - We got most of that giant voter suppression bill from 2013 overturned in the 4th circuit, and I think it's undeniable what the GOP tried and in some respects succeeded with, but most of those deeply unfair early voting changes were concentrated in the first week of early voting that was restored by the courts. After that, more sites opened up. As I understand it, the early voting plans still were at least somewhat tainted by GOP partisan motivations but in the end, African American turnout just wasn't what it was in 2012. The Hurricane really didn't help, either.

I won't get into the reasons why Clinton lost/got what she did nationally as that is a thought exercise best meant for another thread, but suffice to say, the result seems in line with the national results.

[TDAS04]

I would have been more surprised if Trump had won without it.

[Lachi]

If it wasn't for the gore suppression laws, I had no doubt clinton would have been able to win the state.

All in all, I wasn't too surprised because of these laws.

[Pericles]

I thought it was tossup, maybe with a slight Trump lean. The national polling error, while small, threw it off and gave Trump a bigger than expected win. I was surprised he won it so easily, and that he won bigger there than in Arizona(proving the idea that Arizona will not be a swing state ridiculous). Voter suppression may have played a small role but fundamentally it is more Republican than the nation and Trump did better than expected across the board.

[Ljube]

No. Not at all surprised.

Initially, I didn't even consider North Carolina a swing state. I corrected my assessment based on polls. Best not to listen to any polls coming out of North Carolina any more.

[Mr. Smith]

After the firebombing, the Charlotte riots, and early voter results, the only surprise was the trend line was STILL in the Democratic column.

[Gabagool102]

No. Not at all surprised.

Initially, I didn't even consider North Carolina a swing state. I corrected my assessment based on polls. Best not to listen to any polls coming out of North Carolina any more.

Yea, I remember a couple of weeks before the election a NYT poll had Clinton up +7.

[Vern]

After the firebombing, the Charlotte riots, and early voter results, the only surprise was the trend line was STILL in the Democratic column.

Don't forget Hurricane Matthew too.

[Figueira]

There was a bunch of North Carolina-specific stuff that happened, and also the same thing that happened everywhere happened there.

[Mr. Smith]

After the firebombing, the Charlotte riots, and early voter results, the only surprise was the trend line was STILL in the Democratic column.

Don't forget Hurricane Matthew too.

That too.

There was a bunch of North Carolina-specific stuff that happened, and also the same thing that happened everywhere happened there.

I believe without the NC-specific disaster dominoes, but keeping in everything else, the result would have looked like Wisconsin, Michigan, or Florida...Arizona if being more generous to the GOP.

Cooper would've taken out McCrory by 3 points, and Ross would've lost by about 3 points.
 

[Bigby]

Voter suppression happened.

The Voter ID law was struck down, and you're still claiming voter suppression?!

[ElectionsGuy]

Voter suppression happened.

The Voter ID law was struck down, and you're still claiming voter suppression?!

Well of course if Democrats lose the state its not actually their fault.

[pppolitics]

Voter suppression happened.

The Voter ID law was struck down, and you're still claiming voter suppression?!

You are smart to know that Voter ID is not the only type of voter suppressions.

For example, only opening a few polling locations and making the locations as inconvenient as possible.

I am surprise that the Republicans didn't put them in floating rafts.