President Barack Obama vs Donald Trump

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

How would the map look?

[Xing]

Obama would've won WI, MI, PA, and probably FL.

[Shadows]

Obama would've won WI, MI, PA, and probably FL.

This. And IW, OH would have been much closer as well - Comfortable Obama victory!

[Pericles]

Obama by about 5 or 6 points over Trump in the PV, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin go D, perhaps Arizona too, maybe Georgia. Hillary was a terrible candidate and she still got 3 million more votes than Trump and lost by margins of less than 1% in 3 states, if she had switched a few thousand votes she'd be the President-Elect.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama wins, but nothing like the win Bernie would have gotten.

[Mr. Smith]

Toss-up, tilt Obama.

Obama's approvals changed because of Hillary, who took the flack, he likely would've been stuck in the 40's for good if not for her.

On the other hand, Obama was more likely to play things less safely and rip Trump some new ones, rather than wait for him to fall over and thus win by not losing.

In the end, both of these factors probably would've kept it, once again, closer than it should be, but incumbency would be an advantage.

I forgot to take into account how much further invested in Trump the Congresscritters would've been and the likelihood of McConnell doing more to obstruct everything and anything that could help Obama.

Toss-up/Tilt Trump.

[Kolip1]

TRUMP LANDSLIDE

[Gabagool102]

Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY) / Governor Michael R. Pence (R-IN) (280 EV) vs. President Barack H. Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe R. Biden (D-DE) (258 EV)

[jaichind]

It would be 50/50 with a tiny edge for Obama.  One thing we have to keep in mind is that Clinton did not run that poor of a campaign.  She actually won the PV by 2.1 48/46 when the House vote went 49.1/48 for GOP.  Also there are 20+ seats each that that GOP and Dem did not contest.  I did some back of the envelope map and found that if the GOP and Dem were able to put up a nominal candidate in every seat (it was not possible in places like CA and LA) then the House vote would end up something like 49.5/48.2.  So Clinton beat the Dem House vote by 3.4%.  Now she clearly under-performed in non-college Whites leading to her defeat in PA MI WI but she over-performed with college Whites which locked up VA CO NH.  

If Obama-Biden ran instead it is not clear he would actually beat Clinton in the PV edge since they would have to over-perform the Dem House vote by more than 3.4% which clearly did not take place in 2012.  I guess Obama would win narrowly PA MI WI but would be in danger of losing CO VA NH.  Trump will win NC FL OH IA and ME-2.  Obama could easily lose any of PA MI WI CO VA NH and lose the election.  Most likely he holds all of them but it would be 50/50 overall.

[SillyAmerican]

An excellent display of why we need the 22nd amendment (and why we should have a similar amendment which applies to those folks elected to the House and Senate).

[Pericles]

Obama wins.

[Beet]

In 2013, Obama's favorables were 41% while Clinton's were 69%. It reversed when the focus of partisanship changed from him to her. If he was running for a 3rd term this shift wouldn't have happened. He'd have lost and a lot of people would be attacking him for letting Trump win by going for a 3rd term.

[Spark]

Trump would have won. Obama is overestimating himself.