Rate the Swing Sates (Post Election edition)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Now that the election is over, how would you rate the following "swing states" in a general statewide election. Please note that these rating reflect an election in the following sates in a neutral environment between a Generic R and Generic D

Ohio
Iowa
North Carolina
Florida
Nevada
Colorado
Virginia
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
Minnesota
Arizona
Georgia

States that may not be swing states but are still interesting to classify   
Maine
Texas

---------------------------
Ohio:Tilt R
Iowa:Lean R
North Carolina:Tilt R
Florida:Tossup
Nevada:Tilt D
Colorado:Lean D
Virginia:Lean D
New Hampshire Tilt D
Pennsylvania Tilt D
Wisconsin Tossup
Michigan Lean D
Minnesota Lean D
Arizona Lean R
Georgia Tilt R
Maine Likley D
Texas Likley R

[Xing]

Ohio: Lean R
Iowa: Lean R
North Carolina: Tilt R
Florida: Toss-Up
Nevada: Lean D
Colorado: Likely D
Virginia: Lean D
New Hampshire: Tilt D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
Wisconsin: Titanium R
Michigan: Tilt D
Minnesota: Tilt D
Arizona: Tilt R
Georgia: Lean R
Maine: Likely D (ME-02: Lean R)
Texas: Likely R
NE-02: Tilt R

[SWE]

Texas: Likely R
Iowa: Likely R
Ohio: Lean R
Georgia: Lean R
Arizona: Tilt R
North Carolina: Tilt R

Florida: Tossup
Pennsylvania: Tossup

Wisconsin: Tilt D
Michigan: Tilt D
Nevada: Tilt D
New Hampshire: Titlt D
Minnesota: Lean D
Colorado: Lean D
Maine: Likely D
Virginia: Likely D

[JGibson]

From D to R.
Virginia: Likely D.
Maine (statewide): Likely D
Colorado: Likely D
Nevada: Lean D
Michigan: Lean D
Minnesota: Lean D
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Wisconsin: Tilt D
New Hampshire: Tossup/Tilt D
Florida: Tossup
ME-02: Tossup
Ohio: Tossup/Tilt R
North Carolina: Tilt R
Georgia: Lean R
Arizona: Lean R
NE-02: Likely R
Texas: Likely R
Iowa: Likely R
Utah: Likely to Safe R if two-way, Lean R if McMullin (or other credible conservative-leaning indy) runs in 2020.

[Lachi]

Ohio- Lean R
Iowa- Lean/Likely R
North Carolina- Toss-up/ Tilt R
Florida- Pure Toss-up
Nevada- Lean D
Colorado- Lean D
Virginia- Likely D
New Hampshire- Toss up/Tilt D
Pennsylvania- Lean D
Wisconsin- Lean D
Michigan- Lean D
Minnesota- Lean D
Arizona- Toss-up/ Tilt R
Georgia- Lean R
Maine
At Large- Lean/likely D
CD-1: Safe D
CD-2: Toss-up/Tilt D
Texas: Likely/Lean R

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why people still think WI is a Tilt/Lean D state? Trump underperformed by quite a bit in the Milwaukee suburbs and still won the state. I'd say WI at least tilts R in a close election.

[jamestroll]

Not sure why people still think WI is a Tilt/Lean D state? Trump underperformed by quite a bit in the Milwaukee suburbs and still won the state. I'd say WI at least tilts R in a close election.

I think because Hillary Clinton did virtually no campaigning there. Obama did very well in the Midwest in 2008.  Also do not forget Kerry won it by a massive margin of 11,400 (approx) votes in 2004.

I probably agree that it tilts R in a close election but I would assume it does vote for the Democrat the next time the Democrat wins the electoral college. But who knows though.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Texas: Likley R
Maine CD-2: Likely R
Iowa: Likely R
Georgia: Lean R
Ohio: Tilt R
North Carolina: Tilt R
Arizona: Tilt R
Wisconsin: Pure Tossup
Florida: Pure Tossup
Michigan: Tossup/slightly Tilt D
Pennsylvania: Tossup/slightly Tilt D
New Hampshire: Tossup/Tilt D
Nevada: Tilt D
Colorado: Tilt D
Virginia: Lean D
Minnesota: Lean D
Maine: Lean D

[SWE]

Not sure why people still think WI is a Tilt/Lean D state? Trump underperformed by quite a bit in the Milwaukee suburbs and still won the state. I'd say WI at least tilts R in a close election.

Trump got fewer votes than Romney did in 2012. Any Democrat who made an effort to contest the state would be favored, and they can win without convincing a single Trump supporter to change their minds - just get a fraction of the people who went third party or stayed home, thinking Wisconsin safe, and they've won it.

Oh but I forgot, Trump won by a whopping seven tenths of a percent, so clearly we have a solid R state our hands

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why people still think WI is a Tilt/Lean D state? Trump underperformed by quite a bit in the Milwaukee suburbs and still won the state. I'd say WI at least tilts R in a close election.

Trump got fewer votes than Romney did in 2012. Any Democrat who made an effort to contest the state would be favored, and they can win without convincing a single Trump supporter to change their minds - just get a fraction of the people who went third party or stayed home, thinking Wisconsin safe, and they've won it.

Oh but I forgot, Trump won by a whopping seven tenths of a percent, so clearly we have a solid R state our hands

I mean, Trump was probably the worst fit for Wisconsin and he still won it. I don't think a Kasich vs. Clinton race in WI would have been particularly close in WI. Also what about the Senate race? A state that reelects Ron Johnson over Russ Feingold in a presidential year (not to mention all the Scott Walker wins) is hardly a lean D state.

I do agree that Sanders would have beaten Trump handily in WI, though. 

[The_Doctor]

Ohio: Lean Republican
Iowa: Likely Republican
North Carolina: Lean GOP
Florida: Swing
Nevada: Swing
Colorado: Lean Democratic
Virginia: Likely Democratic
New Hampshire: Swing
Pennsylvania: Swing
Wisconsin: Swing
Michigan: Swing
Minnesota: Swing
Arizona: Lean GOP
Georgia: Lean GOP

States that may not be swing states but are still interesting to classify   

Maine: swing, ME-02 Lean GOP
Texas: Likely GOP

[DPKdebator]

Ohio - Likely R
Iowa - Likely R
North Carolina - Lean/Likely R
Florida - Lean R Tossup
Nevada - Lean D
Colorado - Lean D
Virginia - Lean D
New Hampshire - Absolute Tossup
Pennsylvania - Lean R
Wisconsin - Lean R
Michigan - Absolute Tossup
Minnesota - Absolute Tossup/Lean D
Arizona - Likely R
Georgia - Likely R
Maine - Absolute Tossup/Lean D (ME-01: Solid D, ME-02: Solid R)
Texas - Likely R

[OneJ]

List of states arranged by order of margin this year along with the swing:

Iowa: --> Lean/Likely R
Texas: <-- Likely/Lean R
Ohio: --> Lean/Likely R
Georgia: <-- Lean R
North Carolina: --> Lean/Tilt R
Arizona: <-- Lean/Tilt R
Florida: --> Toss Up/Tilt R
Wisconsin: --> Toss Up
Pennsylvania: --> Toss Up/Tilt D
Michigan: --> Tilt D/Toss Up
New Hampshire: --> Toss Up/Tilt D
Minnesota: --> Tilt D/Lean D
Nevada: --> Lean D
Maine: --> Tilt D
Colorado: --> Lean D
Virginia: <-- Lean D/Likely D

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Basically, my idea is that Trump wins the PV by 2-3 points, largely due to doing far better with suburban educated whites:

Iowa: Likely R
Ohio: Likely R
Georgia: Likely R
North Carolina: Likely R
Arizona: Leans R
Florida: Tilts R
Wisconsin: Tilts R
Pennsylvania: Tilts R
Michigan: -Pure Tossup
New Hampshire: Pure Tossup
Minnesota: Tilts R
Nevada: Pure Tossup
Maine: Pure Tossup
Colorado: Pure Tossup
Virginia: Tilts D
Rhode Island: Likely D
Delaware: Likely D

ME-02: Likely R
NE-02: Leans R

Texas is not in play in 2020.

[AGA]

Ohio- Lean R
Iowa- Likely R
North Carolina- Lean R
Florida- Lean R
Nevada- Lean D
Colorado- Lean D
Virginia- Lean D
New Hampshire- Tossup
Pennsylvania- Tossup
Wisconsin- Tossup
Michigan- Lean D
Minnesota- Lean D
Arizona- Likely R
Georgia- Likely R
Maine- Likely D
Texas- Safe R

[Young Conservative]

Ohio: Lean R
Iowa: Lean R
North Carolina: Tilt R
Florida: Tossup/Tilt R
Nevada: Tossup
Colorado: Lean D
Virginia: Lean D
New Hampshire: Tossup
Pennsylvania: Tossup
Wisconsin: Tossup
Michigan: Tossup
Minnesota: Tilt D
Arizona: Lean R
Georgia: likely R
Maine: Tilt D (ME-02: likely R)
Texas: TITANIUM SAFE R TEXAS IS NOT A SWING STATE
NE-02: Tilt R