Will 2020 be a landslide either way?

[AGA]

Trump's expectations are so low, that if his presidency has any success, he will get a lot of credit for it and people will believe that political outsiders can be good presidents.

If Trump's presidency is unsuccessful, it will be easy for people to tie it to him never having qualifications to be president and they will easily return to a political insider who knows how to get things done.

I could see these two scenarios resulting in landslides.

[DPKdebator]

Unless Trump ends up being an absolute godsend or absolutely terrible, a landslide is very unlikely.

[DPKdebator]

I'd say a landslide (ie-winning by 5 or more) either way is not very likely, but a lot can happen. If there is a landslide, it's far more likely to be a Democratic one than a Trump one for these reasons:

• Humans are naturally hard to please and seem to focus on the negative things over positive things. This makes it a challenge for any president, really. It doesn't help that half the country is already looking for a reason to hate him before he even takes office. I would've said the same if Hillary had won. In fact, on RRH, I predicted that whoever of Clinton or Trump won in 2016, that person would lose in 2020. I see no reason to think that will suddenly change.
• The electorate is only getting less whiter, and those Boomer Trump-lovin' Republicans are being replaced by Millenials and Gen Zers.

Millennials are definitely extremely liberal, but Gen Zers are almost ruby red conservative (and the latter group starts to vote in 2020).

[DPKdebator]

I'd say a landslide (ie-winning by 5 or more) either way is not very likely, but a lot can happen. If there is a landslide, it's far more likely to be a Democratic one than a Trump one for these reasons:

• Humans are naturally hard to please and seem to focus on the negative things over positive things. This makes it a challenge for any president, really. It doesn't help that half the country is already looking for a reason to hate him before he even takes office. I would've said the same if Hillary had won. In fact, on RRH, I predicted that whoever of Clinton or Trump won in 2016, that person would lose in 2020. I see no reason to think that will suddenly change.
• The electorate is only getting less whiter, and those Boomer Trump-lovin' Republicans are being replaced by Millenials and Gen Zers.

Millennials are definitely extremely liberal, but Gen Zers are almost ruby red conservative (and the latter group starts to vote in 2020).

There's been mixed signals as to whether that holds water. Scholastic's results this year showed they voted overwhelmingly D. Meanwhile, Fox came out with a poll (with a small sample size) that showed they were fairly conservative, but nowhere near to the extent of Boomers.

There's a fairly large survey (80,000!) done by the Hispanic Heritage Center which showed a 15% lead for Donald Trump among high schoolers, and being a Gen Zer myself I can say that lots of us are moderate and conservative- in my grade, there are very few true liberals; many support Donald Trump, support deporting illegal immigrants, and absolutely adore Trump's economic policies (lower taxes for all and Chinese tariffs).

[Xing]

I advise against making confident predictions when it comes to 2018 and 2020. While I know most Democrats believe that Republicans will lose in a huge landslide in the coming elections (including losses in states like TX, UT and MS), there's really no way we can tell that for sure at this point in time.

Like Obama's presidency, Trump's presidency should have its own ups and downs. I don't think 2020 will be a landslide, the country is probably too polarized for that.

I agree with this, though that also includes predictions that Trump will win states like Connecticut and Rhode Island. Any predictions this far out (or even a year out, tbh) are pretty much random guesses.

[JustinTimeCuber]

Millennials are definitely extremely liberal, but Gen Zers are almost ruby red conservative (and the latter group starts to vote in 2020).

I kinda doubt that. The polling is very limited and the 18-30 demographic is very left-leaning. I think that looking at like one or two surveys with potentially lopsided participants and assuming those to be accurate against major trends ( http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/30/a-different-look-at-generations-and-partisanship/ ) isn't a great idea.

[Virginiá]

There's been mixed signals as to whether that holds water. Scholastic's results this year showed they voted overwhelmingly D. Meanwhile, Fox came out with a poll (with a small sample size) that showed they were fairly conservative, but nowhere near to the extent of Boomers.

Personally I intend to wait until I see some actual hard voting data before I fully commit, but the idea that young voters would go from liberal to conservative that fast is a bit dubious to me. We would be talking about a rather sharp divide as we know how the youngest voters (18-24) voted this time, and they were the most Democratic group this year. I'd also like to know what "conservative" is in this aspect - socially conservative? If so, I don't buy that at all. My guess is that Gen Z is not going to be substantially different from Millennials in terms of partisan identification - at least not the first 10 years worth of people, particularly under Trump. Due to the racial makeup of this generation, it's possible they end up more Democratic than Millennials.

It's also worth noting that 18 - 25 is a rather volatile time for partisan and ideological identity. It can be somewhat fluid in this stage. <18 is even more so, and it's not uncommon for a teenager to undergo substantial changes in their views in that 4 year time span.

Finally, it's pretty well-known I think at this point that the incumbent president at the time a person comes of age has a pretty decent effect on their political leanings. Eisenhower helped lock in 8 years worth of Republicans while Bush/Obama did the opposite. There is a decent chance that Trump pushes 4 years worth of voters far away from the GOP for a number of reasons.

[Ljube]

There's been mixed signals as to whether that holds water. Scholastic's results this year showed they voted overwhelmingly D. Meanwhile, Fox came out with a poll (with a small sample size) that showed they were fairly conservative, but nowhere near to the extent of Boomers.

Personally I intend to wait until I see some actual hard voting data before I fully commit, but the idea that young voters would go from liberal to conservative that fast is a bit dubious to me. We would be talking about a rather sharp divide as we know how the youngest voters (18-24) voted this time, and they were the most Democratic group this year. I'd also like to know what "conservative" is in this aspect - socially conservative? If so, I don't buy that at all. My guess is that Gen Z is not going to be substantially different from Millennials in terms of partisan identification - at least not the first 10 years worth of people, particularly under Trump. Due to the racial makeup of this generation, it's possible they end up more Democratic than Millennials.

It's also worth noting that 18 - 25 is a rather volatile time for partisan and ideological identity. It can be somewhat fluid in this stage. <18 is even more so, and it's not uncommon for a teenager to undergo substantial changes in their views in that 4 year time span.

Finally, it's pretty well-known I think at this point that the incumbent president at the time a person comes of age has a pretty decent effect on their political leanings. Eisenhower helped lock in 8 years worth of Republicans while Bush/Obama did the opposite. There is a decent chance that Trump pushes 4 years worth of voters far away from the GOP for a number of reasons.

Can you give me one reason why Trump would push any voters away from him? Isn't the anti-Trump vote already maxed out?

It seems to me, there is only room for Trump to gain voters, not lose them.

[Figueira]

No, these "It wil be a landslide either way!!!" predictions are always terrible and nonsensical.

[OneJ]

I'd say a landslide (ie-winning by 5 or more) either way is not very likely, but a lot can happen. If there is a landslide, it's far more likely to be a Democratic one than a Trump one for these reasons:

• Humans are naturally hard to please and seem to focus on the negative things over positive things. This makes it a challenge for any president, really. It doesn't help that half the country is already looking for a reason to hate him before he even takes office. I would've said the same if Hillary had won. In fact, on RRH, I predicted that whoever of Clinton or Trump won in 2016, that person would lose in 2020. I see no reason to think that will suddenly change.
• The electorate is only getting less whiter, and those Boomer Trump-lovin' Republicans are being replaced by Millenials and Gen Zers.

Millennials are definitely extremely liberal, but Gen Zers are almost ruby red conservative (and the latter group starts to vote in 2020).

Our generation (Gen Z) is already more tolerable towards gay marriage than past generations and is very diverse (our generatiin will be the last white-majority generation). Hey if you look on sicial media, there is intense dislike against Trump. So most likely we, as a whole, will pick up habits from Millennials by voting D big league.

On the lanslide topic, no. We're to polarized as a nation.

[they don't love you like i love you]

What a stupid question to ask now.

[pbrower2a]

Basically --

If the Republicans rig the election by ensuring that Democrats have no chance to win more than about 100 electoral votes while keeping about 35 Senate seats, they will have a landslide no matter how bad things are.

If Donald Trump brings about an economic miracle that requires few sacrifices (the working people work fifty hour weeks so that the rich can be exempt from taxes) then he might get a bare win. "Life may be harder, but at least I have a job; there is more security in being overworked and underpaid"... expectations are that low. 

Bare loss? A marginal shift in public opinion occurs because Americans start to find him or his successor Pence offensive, and they are willing to take it out at the ballot box. A weak Democratic nominee (maybe some big-city mayor) can defeat Trump or Pence.

Marginal landslide, like Obama 2008 for the Democrats?  The Democrats nominate someone slick who can take advantage of a few problems, like corruption or a faltering economy.

Democratic landslide, parallel to FDR 1932 or Reagan 1980? In such a case the Republicans have big problems -- widespread strikes, riots, or demonstrations, a war going badly, or an economic meltdown. Democrats have another Obama. Michelle, perhaps?   

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Basically --

If the Republicans rig the election by ensuring that Democrats have no chance to win more than about 100 electoral votes while keeping about 35 Senate seats, they will have a landslide no matter how bad things are.

If Donald Trump brings about an economic miracle that requires few sacrifices (the working people work fifty hour weeks so that the rich can be exempt from taxes) then he might get a bare win. "Life may be harder, but at least I have a job; there is more security in being overworked and underpaid"... expectations are that low. 

Bare loss? A marginal shift in public opinion occurs because Americans start to find him or his successor Pence offensive, and they are willing to take it out at the ballot box. A weak Democratic nominee (maybe some big-city mayor) can defeat Trump or Pence.

Marginal landslide, like Obama 2008 for the Democrats?  The Democrats nominate someone slick who can take advantage of a few problems, like corruption or a faltering economy.

Democratic landslide, parallel to FDR 1932 or Reagan 1980? In such a case the Republicans have big problems -- widespread strikes, riots, or demonstrations, a war going badly, or an economic meltdown. Democrats have another Obama. Michelle, perhaps?   

Michelle Obama isn't happening.

[Pericles]

The bottom could easily fall out for Trump. He barely won against a sh**t sandwich of a candidate. He is personally unpopular and the fundamentals, which were in his favor this year, could turn on him with a war or recession coming up. Trump is in a weak position politically, though this is disguised by his and the GOP's wins, and could easily lose. If Trump governs badly, which is very likely, and the Democrats nominate a candidate a majority of voters find preferable to a sh**t sandwich then he could lose and lose badly.

[pbrower2a]

He may have gotten a Kennedy-like win of the electoral vote.... but he is definitely not JFK. He's not even John Forbes Kerry.

He is able to convince only people impressed by the 'realism' of speech at the elementary-school level or of someone barely literate. Democrats have a very solid 48% of the vote awaiting them in 2020 because he can do little to please people so0lidly opposed to his reactionary agenda. He is a brittle target for protests and demonstrations intended to make him look bad on issues.

We are going to see equivalents of Tea Party rallies all over America, this time by and for the Left.

Bare winner with huge flaws, including extremism and a lack of political acumen -- he goes down to defeat unless Republicans can rig the 2020 election with intimidation, violence, or dirty tricks.   

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Electoral vote landslide? Possibly.

Popular vote landslide? No.