Honest John

[VPH]

Chafee flip flopped? In our timeline, he supported gay marriage on a federal level by the mid 2000s. As it is, even in 2008, at least 35% of Republicans supported gay marriage, and another ten or fifteen percent probably supported it at a state level.

Irl in 2006 he described it as an issue best left to states, even though you're right that in 2004 he showed some support. In the TL though, Chafee's reasoning is that he can't drift too far left. He's polling so low that he needs to make headway among GOP primary voters.

[VPH]

State of the Race-Democrats


As the presidential race continues on both sides, candidates are in the process of building bases and convincing voters, especially in early states. The Democratic message appears to center around Iraq, healthcare reform, and tax policy. Social issues have come up here and there, but Democrats seem eager to avoid making this election a referendum on the GOP's "culture war" issues. While the economy is relatively steady, decreasing home prices are worrisome to some advisers. If the economy writ large declines, we may see the messaging of this race shift.

Top Tier

Hillary Clinton
Fundraising: A
Organization: A-
Name Recognition: A+

Hillary Clinton is the candidate to beat on the Democratic side. Her formidable campaign appears to be maintaining its early momentum. With the highest name recognition of any candidate by far and a talented staff, Clinton has been able to build a strong fundraising machine. With a generally broad coalition, her chances right now appear good. However, this early on, it is to be expected that the most well known candidate will be ahead. Her campaign's headstrong nature will soon be put to the test at the first debate.

Assets: Well connected and known, good money, particularly strong on healthcare
Vulnerabilities: Lack of apology for Iraq War vote, may be outflanked by center (Bayh) and left (Edwards et. al), rumors of internal disagreement

John Edwards
Fundraising: A-
Organization: A
Name Recognition: B+

While Edwards is not a household name yet, he is decently well known thanks to his 2004 race, and the early states know him well. Trying to meld a coalition of downscale Whites, progressives, and Black voters will prove challenging, but thus far, Edwards is not too bad for wear with his "two Americas" message. He controls an immense amount of grassroots support and is putting innovative fundraising tools to the test. While Edwards could fall early, he also possesses a talented team and incredible upside. Big name donors have not come around as much as with Hillary Clinton, but if Edwards can cement himself as the top-tier candidate against Iraq, he should be able to marshal more support.

Assets: Charismatic and armed with a strong message, most to gain if economy slows
Vulnerabilities: Coalition will be difficult to build, lacks a very detailed agenda

Dark Horses

Bill Richardson
Fundraising: C+
Organization: A-
Name Recognition: B+

As expected, Bill Richardson is running mostly on his experience, both domestic and foreign. He delves adeptly into issues like education and immigration, and brings a refreshing antiwar perspective to the table. His support in Iowa and New Hampshire is concerning, but time remains for him to put together a strong appeal to voters. Nevada could be an opportunity, and it displays his high polling numbers among Hispanic voters. With Bob Shrum and Peter Fenn leading his campaign, it's clear that Richardson is serious about becoming a frontrunner. His small donor numbers are decent, but Richardson has yet to score many high-level endorsements or donations.

Assets: Strong organization, very experienced
Vulnerabilities: Other progressives could take votes from him, gun stance may prove unpopular, a little awkward

Evan Bayh
Fundraising: A-
Organization: C+
Name Recognition: C+

Evan Bayh has been raking in money, especially from well connected centrists. The question remains though, can he put it to use and convince Democratic voters that his centrist stances are best for the country? His controversial stances on Iraq, abortion, and guns could prove unpopular with Democratic base voters. Additionally, in recent months his campaign has struggled to find the footing to respond to attacks. Bayh would need to do decently in the first few states to perhaps squeeze Hillary from the center.

Assets: Lots of money, good media team, polling well in Michigan
Vulnerabilities: Possibly too conservative for Democrats, unknown in some early states, not endorsed by many elected officials

Third Tier

John Kitzhaber
Fundraising: C-
Organization: B+
Name Recognition: C

With a campaign led by Gore 2000 and Kerry 2004 strategist Tad Devine, Kitzhaber appears to have some upside as an unabashedly left candidate. His recent tours on college campuses, progressive bastions, have endeared him to many young voters. His name recognition and fundraising, however, need some serious work. Kitzhaber is regarded even by some who know his name as an oddball. Supporting initiatives like nationally legal gay marriage, universal healthcare, and immediate withdrawal from Iraq, Kitzhaber is bold. In this political climate though, he could possibly latch onto anti-Bush anger.

Assets: Energetic, grassroots organizing is good, young voters like him
Vulnerabilities: Where is the money, begs the general election electability question


Also-Rans

Al Sharpton
Fundraising: D-
Organization: D
Name Recognition: C+

Al Sharpton has a specific niche-among Black voters. This may serve him well in South Carolina, and if 2004 is any hint, Sharpton may stay in for a while trying to rally for his issues. As he tries to prove his progressive chops among others, Sharpton faces an uphill battle. His campaign is underfunded and underorganized, but Sharpton's energy keeps him in the race.

Assets: Strong on the stump, high upside in South Carolina
Vulnerabilities: Seen as divisive and controversial, unorganized bid, lacks funds

Dennis Kucinich
Fundraising: D
Organization: D+
Name Recognition: C-

Another long-hauler in 2004, Kucinich represents the firebrand left. His protectionist stances and antiwar stances combine to easily make him the farthest left in the race. Kucinich, like Kitzhaber, has campaigned mostly in left-wing hubs. He would likely face tough odds in the general election, and his campaign staff looks to be young and inexperienced. Will he stick it out in 2008?

Assets: Strong speaker
Vulnerabilities: Leftist gadlfy, no money

[NewYorkExpress]

How do plan on handling the Rielle Hunter fiasco?

[Don Vito Corleone]

How do plan on handling the Rielle Hunter fiasco?

I'm guessing from the first post where the adviser tells Edwards "But in order for this strategy to work you have to be spotless" and he responds "don't worry, I have no dirt on me", that the Rielle Hunter incident was butterflyed out.

[America Needs R'hllor]

How do plan on handling the Rielle Hunter fiasco?

I'm guessing from the first post where the adviser tells Edwards "But in order for this strategy to work you have to be spotless" and he responds "don't worry, I have no dirt on me", that that was butterflyed out.

Or John wasn't really Honest?

[VPH]

State of the Race-Republicans


Republican candidate have converged on the early states, attempting to convince conservative voters of their experience and policy chops. Republican messaging has in large part played on immigration, terrorism, and hot button social issues. Economic issues have been discussed, especially in regard to tax policy, where most candidates support tax relief.

Top Tier

Mitt Romney
Fundraising: A+
Organization: A
Name Recognition: A

Mitt Romney begins this race as a frontrunner and the top dog on the Republican side. His campaign is running a talented organizing effort, and his fundraising numbers are particularly strong. Romney appears to be angling for the business wing of the party, touting his own credentials in government and the private sector. He was the first candidate to start running ads, and his name recognition is quite high. Romney is also one of the first Republicans to introduce a healthcare plan. However, between his Mormon faith and his formerly liberal social issue stances, Romney may hit a rougher patch.

Assets: Strong organization, lots of money, neighboring state advantage in NH
Vulnerabilities: Lacks Evangelical outreach, may be cast as a flip-flopper

John McCain
Fundraising: B+
Organization: A
Name Recognition: A+

Senator John McCain is hot on Mitt Romney's tail, leading him in South Carolina and not far behind in Iowa, where he sits in a close third. McCain has not yet put up the same advertising blitz that Romney has, having fundraised less than him. McCain's "Maverick Republican" image and record of heroism combine to make him a formidable candidate who stands apart from many of the other candidates. He has the potential to activate all-important independents in open primary states moving forward. McCain, however, may face tougher odds among conservatives, even as his military background lends him strength with them on foreign policy issues. McCain has already faced criticism from some conservative pundits and this is likely to grow.

Assets: Strong record on foreign policy, well-known, independent support is high, strong general election candidate
Vulnerabilities: Immigration may be a tough point, critical of George W. Bush, not as prolific of a fundraiser as he needs to be

Dark Horses

Rudy Giuliani
Fundraising: B+
Organization: B-
Name Recognition: A+

Rudy Giuliani probably would have ranked higher on this list earlier in the campaign season. While as a whole he's polling third, his footprint on the trail seems to have decreased in recent weeks. Giuliani has attempted to muscle himself into the race as a conservative on homeland security and immigration, but he's taken hits on his stances on abortion. Giuliani's biggest weakness is his personal life. Allegations of misconduct in the mayor's office regarding workers' compensation and other issues have dogged him so far. He still holds decent comeback potential though, with a decent fundraising base and stellar name recognition. It's just a matter of exploiting his tough talking demeanor.

Assets: Some of the top name recognition, numerous offices, potential to gain
Vulnerabilities: Socially too liberal, personal scandals, losing momentum

Sam Brownback
Fundraising: B
Organization: A-
Name Recognition: B-

Kansas Senator Sam Brownback leads in Iowa, the most important state to developing a foothold with evangelicals throughout the campaign. His campaign has climbed the polls in recent weeks, profiting from strong Evangelical and Catholic outreach. Brownback's campaign style has built him an impressive following among religious communities. Additionally, he enjoys a host of endorsements from state officials in Iowa's more religious pockets. His tax platform is one of the most conservatives, and the right loves him. However, can Brownback reach out to more moderate Republicans? Moving past Iowa, this will be crucial.

Assets: Growing support among religious right, strong in Iowa, strong on policy issues
Vulnerabilities: May not be able to bridge the party's divides, weaker outside of Iowa, not very charismatic, could split constituency with Santorum

Third Tier

Rick Santorum
Fundraising: C-
Organization: B+
Name Recognition: C

Rick Santorum, like Sam Brownback, badly wants the religious right's support. However, some of his policies don't fit the traditional conservative orthodoxy. His mild protectionism and support for a higher minimum wage set him apart from many others, but give him a unique point upon which he can build support from downtrodden independents. Santorum is campaigning fulltime after losing his 2006 senate election. However, this loss calls into question his ability to win challenging campaigns. Fundraising has, predictably, not been great for Rick Santorum, but his grassroots support has been pretty good, following his folksly demeanor well. Santorum has upside, but it can only be realized if Brownback slips somewhat.

Assets: Strong grassroots, stands out from other candidates, good on the stump
Vulnerabilities: Splits constituency with Brownback, sinking in polls lately, lack endorsements

Morry Taylor
Fundraising: A
Organization: C
Name Recognition: C+

Morry Taylor's campaign is the true wild card of the bunch, possessing both disappointment potential and upset potential. While his polling numbers are very low, blue collar Michigan excepted, Taylor has loads of his own money to invest in a bid. Additionally, he has built more name recognition than in his ill-fated 1996 run through a combination listening/rally tour before even announcing his bid. Taylor's straightforward, angry speeches are drawing impressive crowds so far, even if his platform is vague and out of place in the GOP primary. Protectionist, nationalistic, and populist, it evokes Ross Perot more than Ronald Reagan. Taylor's path forward is tenuous, but there does a exist a path forward, simply on account of his fundraising.

Assets: Built up name recognition through here quickly, outsider status, money, emotional
Vulnerabilities: Unproven on the trail, undisciplined, lacks political prowess, doesn't play great to social conservatives. vague platform

Also-Rans

Lincoln Chafee
Fundraising: D
Organization: C-
Name Recognition: D-

Chafee's antiwar campaign has fallen startlingly flat. Observers expected there to be some conservative antiwar rumblings-enough perhaps to propel a serious candidacy. While Chafee checks the policy boxes for a libertarian-leaning run, he also looks too much like a liberal on issues like the environment and immigration. Chafee seems to lack the energy or organization it takes to run a presidential campaign. His fundraising isn't awful, getting some support from antiwar larger donors. A late Ron Paul or Walter Jones entry into the race may come if Chafee doesn't consolidate support with disaffected GOPers.

Assets: Could tread centrist ground and attract antiwar voters
Vulnerabilities: No charisma, lacking organization

[VPH]

Hillary Clinton Reveals Healthcare Reform Plan
June 25th, 2007, Des Moines, Iowa


Hillary Clinton today became the first Democratic candidate to reveal a full-scale healthcare reform agenda, known as the American Health Choices Plan. Her plan expands the Medicaid program to help more Americans, mandates employer coverage for their workers, improves required coverage of plans, and provides tax credits to enhance affordability. Clinton's 1990s push alongside her husband for healthcare reform failed due to Congressional opposition, but Clinton is hoping that with a likely Democratic Congress, she can pass her reforms this time. Clinton, in her address today, touted the plan as universal, allowing her to boost credibility with the more progressive wing of the party, which until now has gravitated more towards other candidates.

Other candidates have discussed healthcare and outlined principles for a plan. Senator John Edwards noted that universality is crucial. John Kitzhaber, Al Sharpton, and Dennis Kucinich have both emphasized the need for single-payer, government administered healthcare, although neither has of yet released a detailed plan. Evan Bayh discussed affordability in a June 2nd speech in Dover, New Hampshire, proposing simplifying the research process' bureaucracy and allowing the government to directly negotiate drug prices. Price negotiation is also addressed in Clinton's plan.

The only other candidate to introduce a detailed plan this early has been Mitt Romney, the Republican frontrunner. His plan provides tax deductions for the purchase of healthcare to increase portability and consumer choice. Romney also emphasizes the use of high-risk pools to lower costs. Other candidates have discussed similar reforms, but none has gone as far as Romney in regard to details. Sam Brownback voiced support for a similar tax deduction system and an expansion of private health savings plans. Santorum broadly called for more competition, as has John McCain. Morry Taylor criticized Romney's plan for "not going far enough" to lower costs and ensure competition in the healthcare market.

[VPH]

Rudy Giuliani Faces Allegations of Corruption
June 27th, 2007
New York City, NY

Multiple sources have come forth with information concerning an alleged affair between Rudy Giuliani and Judith Nathan. According to documents obtained by the Times, Giuliani billed charges to various city agencies in an attempt to cover his trip expenses in visiting Nathan. These expenses, according to audit, had nothing to do with city operations. When reached for comment, this is what former Mayor Giuliani said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Some campaign experts have noted that this will further damage Giuliani. "His fundraising base may shrivel up, and whatever goodwill he built up with Evangelicals might not sustain this blow. It's tough to see a way forward if this story grows", said Jason Yules, a political science professor at NYU. Most other GOP candidates declined to comment, but Morry Taylor immediately released a public statement calling Giuliani "unfit for office" and "morally corrupted". Rick Santorum noted in a quip to reporters that trust was an "important characteristic for primary voters to consider in any candidate", and John McCain told the Des Moines Register that he is the "candidate America can count on-no backroom deals or fishy spending".

Mitt Romney Scores Big Endorsements
June 29th, 2007
Concord, New Hampshire

Today, Mitt Romney announced three high profile endorsements: those of South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint, Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, and New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg. These endorsements boost Romney's credibility with GOP conservatives and most certainly reinforce his standing in New Hampshire. Gregg and Romney met a few weeks ago and spoke for 2 hours. Both men reported that the meeting had been both amicable and productive.


Evan Bayh Talks Affordable College
July 2nd, 2007
Ann Arbor, Michigan

Evan Bayh unveiled an ingenious plan to lower college costs today-by providing a $6,000 refundable tax credit for the first $6,000 of college expenses for families making less than $100,000 a year. College affordability has not been a major issue of focus in this campaign, and this is a sign that Bayh, sensing slippage in the polls, is trying to regain his footing. Coverage and reactions to the plan were largely positive, so this may prove a boon for Bayh.

[VPH]

Happy Independence Day!

As candidates in the field take to the street for parades in the early primary states, John Edwards takes to the stage at a 4th of July concert in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. In front of a crowd of 5,000 at the US Cellular Center, Edwards dove into an impassioned speech contrasting the America that prospers and the America that struggles. Through this moment in the campaign had emphasized this message, but pundits noted that the Cedar Rapids speech was a game-changer in that it articulated Edwards' vision for America far better than any other speech had. With numerous memorable lines and an impassioned story of Edwards' father's struggles in the mills, it was a rousing hit of a speech, tying policy to vision. Edwards explained the need for accessible healthcare, an end to the Iraq War, fair tax reform, and the fight against poverty. Immediately after the speech, which was livestreamed on Edwards' website (at the suggestion of Online Director Zephyr Teachout), small donations to the campaign skyrocketed. While at first, Teachout, Axelrod, and Devine worried that the speech's timing on the 4th of July would minimize its media impact, over the next few days, networks across the political spectrum, national and local, made a big deal of the speech. Hillary Clinton's joint appearance with Bill Clinton at Davenport, Iowa's parade was largely overshadowed, even in local media. Al Sharpton's fierce Montgomery, Alabama speech on patriotism went unnoticed by large media outlets too. Edwards clearly won the day. Will this be his turning point in Iowa?

Simultaneously, at a parade in Nashua, New Hampshire, John McCain was confronted by an angry heckler ranting about his stance on immigration and support for current reform efforts. With cameras rolling, McCain gave a passionate defense of his record.

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McCain's off the cuff comment became another brick in the maverick tower McCain purports to stand on. As the media covered this moment, McCain's numbers among self-professed moderates and independents, crucial to New Hampshire, began to rise. McCain's top strategists debated the merits of the moment, with some noting that the effect in New Hampshire could trade off with needed support in Iowa and South Carolina. Whatever happens, Romney's 4th of July was comparatively uneventful, which for McCain looks like a positive.

[VPH]

BREAKING: Immigration Reform Fails in Senate
July 11th, 2007


On a vote of 46-53, the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007 has been voted down by the Senate. While measures were taken to extend debate earlier on, the measure did not garner enough Republican support to pass. This failure may provide Democratic candidates with an extra sense of urgency to win and pass reform, but it may also embolden Republican voices with different plans.

Most Democrats in the race have proposed immigration plans. Richardson's is easily the most liberal, providing a speedy process to legality for undocumented immigrants, including a path to a citizenship. Other candidates, like Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, have discussed implementing a similar process, with some timing differences. Additionally, most Democrats support enhancing border security and modifying the visa process. Evan Bayh's plan, more conservative in nature, includes additional restrictions to prevent visa overstays and more funding for border security than other Democratic plans propose. Not all candidates, however, have released much of a plan. John Kitzhaber announced his support for a path to citizenship and decried human rights abuses in Latin America, but he has not cobbled together a full plan. Kucnich and Sharpton have both discussed the issue, but not in depth.

GOP plans have been far tougher on immigration than Democratic ones. A few of the plans, such as John McCain's, Sam Brownback's, and Lincoln Chafee's, include a clear path to citizenship. Other candidates either have muddled stances or have come out against what they call "amnesty". All Republicans have discussed enhancing funding for border security and enforcing the nation's current laws, although Rick Santorum, Morry Taylor, and Rudy Giuliani go further to call for English as the official language, and Taylor, Santorum, and Romney indicate support for anti-sanctuary city policies.

[VPH]

GOP Debate: The Griz Appears

July 25th, 2007
Davenport, Iowa

At a contentious debate in Davenport yesterday evening, Morry Taylor seemed to emerge the winner. His memorable one-liners had the audience laughing and applauding on a number of occasions, and his attacks levied against Rick Santorum for "not being for the people" seemed to do some damage, causing Santorum to stumble over his policy stances. Taylor also told anecdotes from the factory floor and wove his personal story into his policy rhetoric. Searches for "Morry Taylor 2008" spiked during and after the debate, according to Google.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani clashed over immigration, with each accusing the other of being weak on the issue. Giuliani took even more flak from Lincoln Chafee for his tenure as mayor of New York City, with Chafee calling him corrupt. It was certainly not a night for Rudy to relive.

While some argued amongst themselves, Sam Brownback and John McCain both put up strong performances, which is exactly what each needs to possibly pull ahead of Mitt Romney. Santorum and Brownback especially garnered cheers when abortion and gay marriage were discussed. McCain's answers on veterans and foreign policy endeared the audience to him, and his performance outdid most expectations. McCain stood by the need for a "smarter, tougher Iraq policy-a victory policy" in one of his most successful lines of the night.

The expectation now is that Iowa will continue to tighten. The upcoming Iowa straw poll in early August will provide a better indication of support on the ground.

[VPH]

Brownback Wins Ames Straw Poll

Kansas Senator Sam Brownback has racked up another important milestone in Iowa, winning the social-conservative dominated Ames Straw Poll. While the poll represents a relatively unscientific marker of the state of the race in Iowa, it nonetheless gives a boost to those who perform well and in the past has hastened the departure of underperformers.

2007's Ames Straw Poll demonstrates Sam Brownback's strength with Evangelical voters, a large bloc in Iowa. Rick Santorum's result is also indicative that he has a hold on some of this group. There was quite a drop-off between third place Mitt Romney and the rest of the pack. Morry Taylor's result may seem surprising, but it shows that his efforts to raise name recognition have largely paid off. Notable are the disappointing results for John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Lincoln Chafee. These three continue to struggle with socially conservative grassroots voters, and Giuliani's stock has plunged so far that he finished behind "write-ins". Notable is the fact that 3/4 of all write-in votes were for Texas Representative Ron Paul, who has made noise about potentially entering the race. Clearly, anti-war Republicans are rejecting Lincoln Chafee thus far.

IOWA
Republicans
Sam Brownback- 32%
Rick Santorum- 25%
Mitt Romney- 20%
John McCain- 8%
Morry Taylor- 6%
Write-In- 5%
Rudy Giuliani- 3%
Lincoln Chafee- 1%



Total: 15,756

[VPH]

I will be continuing this timeline, but at a more expedited pace so we can get to the fun parts (actual primary results and stuff).

[VPH]

Edwards Proving Popular with Unions
October 7th, 2007

Today, John Edwards received the endorsements of the United Steelworkers and the United Mine Workers of America. Thousands of cheering union members looked on as Leo Gerard and Cecil Roberts sang Edwards' praises. This dual endorsement cements Edwards as the early leader in labor support, despite heavy efforts from Hillary Clinton, Evan Bayh, and John Kitzhaber to court their support. Kitzhaber last week scored the support of the Seafarers International Union of North America, while Bayh won over the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and Hillary touted her support from the National Taxi Workers' Alliance. These endorsements have been important, but Edwards now adds to his repertoire, which already included endorsements from numerous locals in Iowa and Michigan, the Amalgamated Transit Union, and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union.

Some of the largest unions, including the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America, National Education Association, Teamsters, SEIU, International Association of Machinists, and others have not yet made their endorsements. The International Association of Fire Fighters, which proved crucial to John Kerry's 2004 win in Iowa, is currently in the midst of its membership vote, which will determine its endorsement.

Union leaders have described John Edwards as "very popular" among their membership bases, especially owing to his stances on renegotiating trade deals, strengthening collective bargaining, and raising wages. At a visit to a crowded sheet metal shop in Davenport, Edwards deftly answered questions about his record and worked the crowd, registering a high degree of support.

Bill Richardson Banks on Iowa, Nevada
October 10th, 2007
Reno, NV

Polling third in Iowa and second in Nevada, Bill Richardson is attempting to win over anti-Iraq War liberals and Hispanic voters alike. These two constituencies will prove crucial to both these early caucuses, and Richardson's strong organization in both states is sure to boost him. Richardson touts his record on both domestic and foreign policy as proof he is most ready to govern. He seems to be popular with younger voters, but faces competition against John Edwards to an extent and John Kitzhaber for liberals.

Santorum Stumbles
October 18th, 2007
Des Moines, Iowa

Under pressure in a heated Iowa town hall, Rick Santorum's response to a question about his record drew heavy boos. Instead of answering a question addressed by an emotional constituent on the topic of Medicare, Santorum decided to attack rivals Sam Brownback and Mitt Romney. When confronted with the issue, he doubled down, drawing more boos.

The debate was widely seen as helping Santorum's case, as was his strong performance in the Ames Straw Poll. However, his lack of high profile endorsements, many of which have gone to Sam Brownback, and recent gaffes, leave him vulnerable.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Loving this!

[VPH]

Debate Night for the Democrats-Richardson Shines

November 8th, 2007
Iowa City, Iowa

Today's debate revealed differences between the Democratic candidates.

Through the sparring, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson stood out as poised and experienced. On a question about US-China policy, he caught John Kitzhaber off guard, attacking Kitzhaber's lack of foreign policy experience. When asked by the moderator about immigration, Richardson told a poignant story of an immigrant family being split apart, and launched into his platform on the issue, eliciting widespread applause.

The ostensible frontrunners, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, both had a decent evening but did not particularly stand out. Edwards drew heavy applause when discussing the minimum wage and his plans to raise it. Similarly, Clinton showed her strength on healthcare issues. However, Sharpton hammered Clinton on her husband's record on crime issues.

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh stood out as the most centrist candidate, backing a gradual drawdown of troops and attacking Dennis Kucinich as a"pipe dream radical". This line set off Dennis Kucinich, who asked why Bayh was even a Democrat, to laughter from Al Sharpton.

Overall, this debate may empower Bill Richardson, who needs to do well in Iowa and Nevada. Evan Bayh's appeal is clearly confined to moderate Democrats, but it appears that Hillary Clinton may cut into his backing among suburban Dems. Who will fall if Richardson rises is as of yet unclear, but with new Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan polling coming out in a few days, we will soon find out.

[VPH]

Polls Out!
November 10, 2007

IOWA
Republicans
Sam Brownback- 27% (+2)
John McCain- 22% (+1)
Mitt Romney- 21% (-2)
Rick Santorum- 12% (0)
Morry Taylor- 11% (+9)
Rudy Giuliani- 6% (-7)
Lincoln Chafee- 1% (-3)


Democrats
Hillary Clinton- 34% (-4)
John Edwards- 29% (+2)
Bill Richardson- 19% (+3)
John Kitzhaber- 12% (+2)
Evan Bayh- 4% (-2)
Dennis Kucinich- 2% (-1)
Al Sharpton- 0% (0)

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Republicans
John McCain- 31% (+5)
Mitt Romney- 29% (-3)
Sam Brownback- 13% (+2)
Rudy Giuliani- 10% (-5)
Morry Taylor- 9% (+4)
Rick Santorum- 6% (-2)
Lincoln Chafee- 2% (-1)


Democrats
Hillary Clinton- 30% (-5)
John Edwards- 24% (+1)
John Kitzhaber- 18% (+3)
Bill Richardson- 14% (-1)
Evan Bayh- 11% (+4)
Dennis Kucinich- 2% (-2)
Al Sharpton- 1% (0)

MICHIGAN
Republicans
Mitt Romney- 32% (-3)
John McCain- 24% (+4)
Morry Taylor- 16% (+10)
Sam Brownback- 13% (-3)
Rick Santorum- 10% (-2)
Rudy Giuliani- 4% (-5)
Lincoln Chafee- 1% (-1)


Democrats
John Edwards- 30% (+1)
Hillary Clinton- 29% (-5)
Evan Bayh- 18% (+4)
Bill Richardson- 9% (+2)
Al Sharpton- 6% (-2)
John Kitzhaber- 6% (0)
Dennis Kucinich- 2% (0)


SOUTH CAROLINA
Republicans
John McCain- 26% (0)
Rick Santorum- 23% (+2)
Mitt Romney- 21% (-1)
Sam Brownback- 17% (0)
Rudy Giuliani- 8% (-4)
Morry Taylor- 4% (+3)
Lincoln Chafee- 1% (0)

Democrats
John Edwards- 38% (+2)
Hillary Clinton- 27% (-2)
Evan Bayh- 15% (+2)
Al Sharpton- 9% (-2)
Bill Richardson- 7% (0)
John Kitzhaber- 4% (+1)
Dennis Kucinich- 0% (-1)


NEVADA
Republicans
Mitt Romney- 33% (-2)
John McCain- 30% (+3)
Sam Brownback- 12% (0)
Rudy Giuliani- 10% (-3)
Rick Santorum- 7% (-1)
Lincoln Chafee- 4% (+1)
Morry Taylor- 4% (+2)


Democrats
Hillary Clinton- 32% (-3)
Bill Richardson- 24% (+1)
John Edwards- 22% (+2)
Evan Bayh- 10% (+1)
John Kitzhaber- 9% (0)
Dennis Kucinich- 2% (0)
Al Sharpton- 1% (-1)

[VPH]

Inside the Hillary HQ
November 10, 2007


Hillary: I'm disappointed by the polls today. What are we doing wrong? We had it all going for us.

Mark Penn: We keep bleeding support, and our internals show that we're losing to Edwards with blue-collar voters and losing Hispanic support to Richardson.

Maggie Williams: Our original strategy of positioning as a pragmatic candidate tailored to working-class concerns is simply not working. But there's good news-Bayh gives you a chance to position yourself to the left of somebody in this race, and internals show that suburban moderate voters are up for grabs.

Hillary: So are we going to regear our strategy months before the first primary?

Penn: It's more of an adjustment than anything, but we need to put our money into the voters we can flip. Edwards is running stronger than anybody expected him to, and it doesn't help that labor's falling into his camp more and more.

Williams: New Hampshire is going to be the state for us. If we can't win it and one of South Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, or Florida, we're done for. The money will dry up if that happens.

[VPH]

On Veteran's Day, Diverging Platforms
November 11, 2007


Today, all candidates hit the road to campaign across America and commemorate the troops. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards both frequented parades in Iowa, along with Bill Richardson. John Kitzhaber and Dennis Kucinich remained in New Hampshire, while Al Sharpton attended a parade in Charleston, SC and Evan Bayh was in Grand Rapids, Michigan. On the GOP side, Sam Brownback, Rick Santorum, and John McCain spent time in Iowa. Rudy Giuliani attended events in his hometown of New York City, and Lincoln Chafee went to a parade in Woonsocket, Rhode Island. Morry Taylor attended a parade in Tampa, Florida.

Interestingly, the campaign schedule today seems to mirror the top targets for each candidate, with some exceptions. With Iowa on January 3rd, it appears the race is competitive and may drag out if the first few states have diverse success stories. Pundits stress that if anyone in either party can win the trifecta of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan, they are primed for a victory in the nomination process. However, if for example, each state went to a different victor, the primary season would likely stretch onward. For the Democrats, another crucial early state will be South Carolina

Amid the parades, candidates have been releasing their stances on veteran's issues.
Most Republican candidates who have released a stance on the issue emphasize making the VA more efficient, with John McCain calling for the allowance of a private option in the VA and a renewed commitment to veteran's education, Morry Taylor suggesting the firing of unnecessary employees and the modernization of the VA through computerization, and Mitt Romney pledging lower wait times and more efficiency.

Democrats, including Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are calling for a comprehensive Veteran's benefits package including expanding free college and increasing funding for the VA. John Kitzhaber, whose stock in New Hampshire has risen recently, is on the forefront of demanding whistleblower protections. Evan Bayh, by contrast, has a similar platform to Mitt Romney on the issue. Democratic action groups like VoteVets have not endorsed a particular candidate, but have vaguely praised Hillary Clinton and John Edwards' ideas.

[VPH]

Big Endorsements Roll In
December 15th, 2007

As the first races grow closer, here's a look at the major endorsements that have been released. Those who have not endorsed, including both of Iowa's senators, are not included. (NOTE: I won't do this for all the primaries, but just for the first few, although if you're wondering about anybody's endorsement feel free to ask. I just want to get to the exciting stuff!!)

Iowa

Statewide
Governor Chet Culver: John Edwards
Secretary of State Michael Mauro: Hillary Clinton
Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald: John Edwards
Auditor David Vaudt: Mitt Romney
Attorney General Tom Miller: Evan Bayh
Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey: Sam Brownback

Congress
IA-01 Rep. Bruce Braley: John Edwards
IA-02 Rep. Dave Loebsack: Bill Richardson
IA-03 Rep. Leonard Boswell: Hillary Clinton
IA-04 Rep.Tom Latham: Mitt Romney
IA-05 Rep. Steve King: Rick Santorum

New Hampshire

Statewide
Governor John Lynch: Hillary Clinton
Attorney General Kelly Ayotte: John McCain
Treasurer Catherine Provencher: John Edwards

Congress
Senator John Sununu: John McCain
Senator Judd Gregg: Mitt Romney
NH-01 Rep. Carol Shea-Porter: John Kitzhaber
NH-02 Rep. Paul Hodes: John Edwards

Michigan

Statewide
Governor Jennifer Granholm: Hillary Clinton
Lt. Governor John Cherry: Evan Bayh
Attorney General Mike Cox: John McCain

Congress
Senator Debbie Stabenow: John Edwards
MI-01 Bart Stupak: John Edwards
MI-02 Pete Hoekstra: Mitt Romney
MI-04 Dave Camp: Mitt Romney
MI-05 Dale Kildee: Evan Bayh
MI-06 Fred Upton: John McCain
MI-10 Candice Miller: John McCain
MI-13 John Conyers: Al Sharpton
MI-15 John Dingell: John Edwards

Nevada

Statewide
Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki: John McCain
Treasurer Kate Marshall: Hillary Clinton
Attorney General Catherine Cortez-Masto: Bill Richardson

Congress
NV-01 Shelley Berkley:John Edwards
NV-02 Dean Heller: Mitt Romney
NV-03 John Porter: John McCain
 

[VPH]

Des Moines Register: Endorsement of John McCain and John Edwards
December 17th, 2007

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New Hampshire Union-Leader: Pick Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton
December 21st, 2007

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New Year's Eve-Caucus Eve
December 31st, 2007


Tonight's fireworks both mark the new year and perhaps the surprises about to explode in the Iowa Caucus on January 3rd and the New Hampshire Primary on January 8th. It's well known who the frontrunners are, but who might the dark horses be for a surprise?

Iowa tends to be an anti-war state on the Democratic side and a socially conservative one on the Republican side. Thus, it's no shock that polls show a tight race with antiwar Bill Richardson and John Edwards gaining and with Sam Brownback leading the GOP field. Could Bill Richardson pull off an upset? Analysts say it's possible but not likely. He has fewer offices than Edwards and Clinton have, and in a state where ground game is everything, this can matter on election night. Richardson, however, has marshaled an impressive amount of energy. Republicans John McCain or Mitt Romney could also possibly overcome Sam Brownback, which would severely damage Brownback's chances of winning.

In New Hampshire, independent crossover voters appear to have John McCain in the lead. Mitt Romney, however, is from neighboring Massachusetts and could easily win. The Democratic side appears a bit more unsteady, with John Kitzhaber growing his support, especially among the aforementioned independent likely voters. New Hampshire is known to be less dependent on the ground game, and Kitzhaber has spent much time trying to convince Democrats to vote for him.

[MycroftCZ]

Love this! Keep it up!

[VPH]

Caucus Night in Iowa

January 3rd, 2007

Brownback, Edwards Emerge Victorious


Republican Caucus
Sam Brownback- 26%
Mitt Romney- 24%
John McCain- 23%
Morry Taylor- 14%
Rick Santorum- 9%
Rudy Giuliani- 2%
Lincoln Chafee- 1%

Socially conservative Iowa delivered for a social conservative once again, handing victory to Senator Sam Brownback. The campaign's initial worries that Rick Santorum would cut into support proved unfounded, as Brownback in many places took in Santorum's supporters where they alone did not achieve viability. Rick Santorum expected Iowa to be a strong state for him, but his journey depended on a strong performance there. Duking it out for second place were Mitt Romney and John McCain. McCain won the important independent vote and did best in Eastern Iowa. Mitt Romney won upper-middle and high-income voters, but overall, voters most concerned with terror and foreign policy picked McCain, attesting to his experience on the issue. Both Evangelicals and Catholics preferred Brownback, with Romney in second. One surprise was Morry Taylor's relatively strong performance. While undercovered by many media outlets, his campaign has picked up steam among downscale voters. In Scott County, Taylor finished second, with 24% while in Des Moines County, he came in second with 23%. His performances in Eastern Iowa, more industrial, show a potential strength for him moving forward.

Sam Brownback emerges from Iowa in a stronger position, but it's clear that he still needs to raise his profile in order to win South Carolina and other upcoming primaries. Rick Santorum's weak performance should help Brownback, but it's still possible that Romney can gain among the religious right. Rudy Giuliani's bid continues to fall flat, and in Iowa most of his supporters crossed to McCain as time went on. Giuliani's performance in New Hampshire will be pivotal to whether or not he can remain a serious candidate in contention for the nomination.

An interesting trend is that exit polls showed around 40% of Republicans who were opposed to the war caucused with Democrats. Among the remaining 60%, 65% backed Taylor, 15% backed Brownback, 8% Romney, 5% Chafee, 4% McCain, and 3% Santorum. This may owe itself to the lack of a serious candidate in the GOP field running against the war.



Democratic Caucus
John Edwards- 32%
Hillary Clinton- 30%
Bill Richardson- 21%
John Kitzhaber- 7%
Evan Bayh- 7%
Dennis Kucinich- 3%
Al Sharpton- 0%

In an upset, John Edwards prevailed over Hillary Clinton in Iowa, leading the Clinton campaign team to scramble and secure New Hampshire in order to remain a frontrunner. Edwards performed well with rural voters and union members especially. Clinton's performance was best with higher-educated voters as well as those in suburban areas. This attests to Clinton's strategic pivot having mixed results. On one hand, it's clear that she was able to gain support from her target groups, but it wasn't enough in Iowa. Bill Richardson's strong performance also came as a surprise to some, but his strident antiwar position helped him win Johnson County, Jefferson County, and a few others.

Edwards' campaign is in the midst of a boost from the victory, while the shell-shocked Clinton camp is evaluating the field and just what happened in Iowa. Bill Richardson's campaign is also now drawing attention. The others are on the ropes. Kitzhaber needs a strong New Hampshire performance to remain relevant, and his rise in the polls there gives hope to his supporters. Bayh is looking past New Hampshire, hoping he'll have the money and energy to continue through Florida and Michigan, where his centrist positioning will play well.

[VPH]

Clinton After Iowa Loss: "Bring It On"
1:00 AM, January 4th, 2008

In a speech that was equal parts grateful to her voters in Iowa and clearly frustrated at the final result, Hillary Clinton expressed determination to win in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada. Her passionate speech evoked her mother, who was sitting in the audience, and her strength. In front of a sizable crowd in Des Moines, she met applause on numerous occasions, especially when she pivoted to her critics and said, "Bring it on."
Clinton appears to have high expectations for New Hampshire, where she has received major newspaper and elected official endorsements. Her campaign has made major ad purchases in the Boston and Burlington media markets, spending a larger amount of money in New Hampshire than any other Democratic campaign. While Clinton remains ahead according to polls, her campaign must notch some early wins if it seeks to be the national frontrunner moving forward.

[YPestis25]

Glad to see this is back!