Hamilton County, IN went from a Republican bulwark to a statewide bellwether

[ElectionsGuy]

Indiana, 2004

Bush: 60%
Kerry: 39%

Hamilton County, 2004

Bush: 74% (77.9 K) (+51.3 K)
Kerry: 25% (26.4 K)

Statewide, 2016

Trump: 56%
Clinton: 37%

Hamilton County, 2016

Trump: 56% (87.4 K) (+30.1 K)
Clinton: 37% (57.3 K)

It is notable however that in other races (Governor, Senator) Hamilton County was much more Republican than the state. It still was the most Democratic trending county in most races, just less so than in the presidential race.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The local Democratic Party has made a concerted effort here of late; in 2016, we had a Democrat on the ballot in every race right down to the county offices for the first time in living memory. They've been able to gain some ground (though not nearly enough to actually win county office) thanks to a split between evangelicals and upper middle class voters in places like Carmel, the latter of whom were alienated by the social policies of the Pence Administration, a split that manifested itself two years ago when a first time Democratic candidate nearly unseated a three-term Republican State Senator (details) in what was otherwise a very good year for IN Republicans.

[Bismarck]

Hamilton was one of (perhaps the only?) counties where Holcomb and Young got more total votes than Trump. I think Hamilton is clearly not the solid bastion it used to be, by this poor performance was mostly specific to Trump. In the attorney generals race, which was pretty much generic R vs generic D, Curtis Hill got 68 % and 103,000 votes, a record in the County.

[libertpaulian]

The local Democratic Party has made a concerted effort here of late; in 2016, we had a Democrat on the ballot in every race right down to the county offices for the first time in living memory. They've been able to gain some ground (though not nearly enough to actually win county office) thanks to a split between evangelicals and upper middle class voters in places like Carmel, the latter of whom were alienated by the social policies of the Pence Administration, a split that manifested itself two years ago when a first time Democratic candidate nearly unseated a three-term Republican State Senator (details) in what was otherwise a very good year for IN Republicans.

As an IN Dem, do you predict a "Fairfax County Effect" happening in Hamilton?

[RINO Tom]

The local Democratic Party has made a concerted effort here of late; in 2016, we had a Democrat on the ballot in every race right down to the county offices for the first time in living memory. They've been able to gain some ground (though not nearly enough to actually win county office) thanks to a split between evangelicals and upper middle class voters in places like Carmel, the latter of whom were alienated by the social policies of the Pence Administration, a split that manifested itself two years ago when a first time Democratic candidate nearly unseated a three-term Republican State Senator (details) in what was otherwise a very good year for IN Republicans.

As an IN Dem, do you predict a "Fairfax County Effect" happening in Hamilton?

I'll be interested to hear actual Indiana folks (who know what they're talking about like you guys!) answer, but from my experiences - which is my sister going to Butler and mostly meeting friends from Hamilton County and now living in Indianapolis and working for Chase - there won't be anything close to that.  It seems much more socially conservative (though obviously not a firebreather county or anything) than NOVA, and NOVA is a unique suburban area due to the influence government has on the people there.  Indy's suburbs still largely resemble a suburban area of the 20th Century ... the ones that were solidly Republican.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's a trend that's going on in all the affluent suburban counties to medium-big Midwest metros: Delaware OH and Waukesha WI say hi.