Under what conditions would the preceding poster win the preceding state?

[Xing]

In a general election, primary/caucus, or both.

I'll start with Montana.

[Xing]

General: You'd need a large, continuous GOTV effort, and it would probably help if your opponent was unpopular.

Primary: If your Democratic opponent was even further to the left than you, you'd very likely win it.

Florida

[Xing]

General: If you ran against a corporatist Democrat who was seen as an elitist and part of the establishment, you'd stand a good chance.

Primary: You'd win against a Trump-like Republican in Minnesota.

West Virginia (remember that you can also discuss primaries, and don't necessarily have to talk about a general election)

[Xing]

Since Puerto Rico only votes in the primaries right now, I suppose you'd win it against a very conservative Republican.

Iowa

[Xing]

In a primary (caucus, really): Runs against an establishment, moderate Democrat, and generates more energy.

In a general election: Runs a populist campaign with a focus on agriculture, and doesn't come across as being too anti-oil. Also, the Republican would have to be pretty unpopular, and unapologetically corporatist.

Maine

[Xing]

Primary: Pretty likely to happen, especially against a less conservative Republican from the Northeast or Midwest.

G.E.: Would probably happen if the Democrat were either just as far to the left, or very centrist, and not appealing to progressives. Basically, if the race were close, you'd likely win NC.

Pennsylvania

[Xing]

You had already been elected Governor of Oregon, were decently popular, and ran against a very unpopular Democratic incumbent who was fairly hawkish.

Ohio

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The previous Republican president caused the economy to tank, promoted trade deals that allowed millions of jobs to be shipped overseas, and you run on an economic-centered, populist message.

Alaska

[Xing]

Democrats nominate a man who is unapologetically sexist.

Missouri

[Xing]

You'd need to run a campaign focused mostly on economics, and paint your centrist opponent as an out-of-touch corporatist.

South Dakota

[Xing]

Against an unpopular Trump-like Republican, it's actually not hard to see you winning it.

ME-02

[Xing]

The Democratic candidate makes many highly controversial statements that alienate both working class whites and black voters.

Wisconsin