Trump Supporters: What the Hell Happened in Nevada?

[Free Bird]

I don't frequent this part of the forum, so maybe this has been answered. Donald over-performed polls and proved that they had a systematic sampling problem, which cancelled out the common method of using the aggregate to get past the individual firms' biases.

However, Donald often had a lead in Nevada, sometimes outside the MoE, so why did he lose it? I ask Trump supporters only.

[MT Treasurer]

Two words: Early voting.

Something like 75% of NV voters vote early, and Democrats built an insurmountable edge in early voting. Trump won the election day vote (probably decisively), but it just wasn't enough.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Retromike22 worked on the Clinton campaign in NV. He can tell you they were much better organized than those rust belt failures.

[Free Bird]

Reid Machine maximized early voting turnout. The one "swing" state that was probably baked before Election Day. When one side turns out a ridiculous percentage of their voters and they have two weeks of in-person early voting (on top of an even longer period for mail absentees, I believe), the other side is at a severe disandvantage. This year was probably an Election Day blowout for Trump, but he still lost by several points in terms of the total NV vote.

This wasn't specific to this year, it's been a trend in the state for much of Reid's tenure. Since he's retiring in January, one would guess that some of that advantage would dissipitate. Overall it's a state that seems tailor-made for Trump (one of the highest percentages of WWC voters of any state), so it might be a reasonable target in 2020.

Is CCM inheriting the Reid machine? You would think Sandoval would be popular enough to put together a counter-coalition.

[MLM]

Early vote and polls in NV are always a bit iffy (should not I'm not a Trump supporter despite the name of the thread)

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

A smaller percentage of WWC than in the Midwest, poor showing among Washoe County Republicans, and undersampling of Hispanics. The polls weren't that far off in Nevada.

Nevada was the closest state to the national popular vote both in 2016 and 2004.

[Xing]

Also, dare I mention *cough* demographics *cough*

Nevada was always going to be tough for Trump, as I reminded people many times before the election. It's a competitive state, but it's clearly not a pure toss-up state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump lost every single state with a huge Latino population: CA, NV, NM, CO, IL, NY and NJ and FL and AZ and TX were GOP. But, PA, MI and WI and even OH aren't that Latino proportional so, that's why we got the results we did on election day.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

He actually under-performed his polls west of the Mississippi, for the most part.  It just so happens that most of the competitive states are in the East, where he did better than expected.