From the House directly to the Oval Office?

[Sir Mohamed]

Lots of presidents and major party nominees have been either a senator or a governor; sometimes a cabinet member. We haven't seen that much House members. It seems that it is just very difficult to get nominated or elected as Congress(wo)man. Despite a crowded field this year, there as no U.S. Representative running for president. Will it ever change?

I assume low name recognition is the main reason. And with it, problems with fundraising and so on. I am now more talking about normal house members, no Speaker or leader. However, there were only very few House (and Senate) leaders in the past decades running for president (Bob Dole and LBJ are the only ones I remember now; Gerald Ford was more of an accident).

The only one I can foresee now is Tulsi Gabbard for 2020 besides Paul Ryan, who already earned the GOP VP slot in 2012 as a House member.

[I’m not Stu]

Lots of presidents and major party nominees have been either a senator or a governor; sometimes a cabinet member. We haven't seen that much House members. It seems that it is just very difficult to get nominated or elected as Congress(wo)man. Despite a crowded field this year, there as no U.S. Representative running for president. Will it ever change?

I assume low name recognition is the main reason. And with it, problems with fundraising and so on. I am now more talking about normal house members, no Speaker or leader. However, there were only very few House (and Senate) leaders in the past decades running for president (Bob Dole and LBJ are the only ones I remember now; Gerald Ford was more of an accident).

The only one I can foresee now is Tulsi Gabbard for 2020 besides Paul Ryan, who already earned the GOP VP slot in 2012 as a House member.

Maybe Paul Ryan, he's Speaker. I can't see Gabbard.

[Mister Mets]

I think it's possible for someone to go from Congress to the White House. We keep seeing unprecedented people going to the White House. No one was elected from the Deep South after the Civil War until Jimmy Carter. No one was elected President who spent the first 50+ years of their life outside of public life until Reagan. No Vice President had won an election to succeed their President until Papa Bush. No small state Governor was elected President until Clinton. No presidential son had been elected since John Quincy Adams until George W Bush. No Senator had been elected prior to finishing their first term until Obama. No President had been elected without serving prior public office until Trump.

Members of Congress have some disadvantages which make it easier for other politicos to win primaries. It's hard to stand out in a group of 435, and when there's sufficient seniority to be significant, you can be tarred as a Washington insider. The most talented and ambitious politicians aim for statewide office (see Nixon, JFK, Dole, Gore and Pence) so the type of guys more willing to aim for the presidency are less likely to stick in the House.

It's possible that someone from the House will become President. But it may very well not happen, because other political figures will have greater advantages. The media environment and greater partisanship might help members of Congress. It's easier to get a message out, and there are many areas where statewide office isn't seen as a possibility (Texas Democrats, California Republicans) so someone with presidential ambitions might stick around in the House.

[RaphaelDLG]

The main reasons why you can't really go from the House to the Oval Office is 1) lack of name recognition and 2) lack of fundraising.

Of course, there are some House members that don't have these problems, e.g., Ryan.

Ryan's problem is that he's been vilified by Breitbart type as this evil establishment liberal or something insane like that.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

From what I can remember, only two people have ever gone from House to President with no other offices in between, and they're Abraham Lincoln and James Garfield. Both of them had large name recognition, though, and Garfield was even a Senator-elect at the time of his election as President.

The only one I can foresee now is Tulsi Gabbard for 2020 besides Paul Ryan, who already earned the GOP VP slot in 2012 as a House member.

Gabbard lacks name recognition and thus wouldn't be likely to mount a good campaign, but Ryan has the same, if not better, name recognition as Lincoln and Garfield.

[Figueira]

Ryan almost doesn't count because he was Speaker, but I think Ryan becoming President would be plausible even if he wasn't Speaker, since he was Romney's running mate.

I doubt, say, Jason T. Smith or John Yarmuth would get very far if they randomly ran for President. But I could see someone pulling it off if they did something media-noteworthy and ran a good campaign against a divided field, and there was something unique about them as a candidate.

Also, I don't get why people are so obsessed with "name recognition."

[catscanjumphigh]

Unfortunately it takes a lot of money to win the White House and that's something representatives don't have.  If the House of Representatives had the money needed to win, they'd start in the senate like Ted Cruz or Barack Obama and run for president a couple years into their first term treating it like a stepping stone.

[GoTfan]

The main reasons why you can't really go from the House to the Oval Office is 1) lack of name recognition and 2) lack of fundraising.

Of course, there are some House members that don't have these problems, e.g., Ryan.

Ryan's problem is that he's been vilified by Breitbart type as this evil establishment liberal or something insane like that.

It's amazing how becoming Speaker turns you from a conservative hero into a deep-cover liberal, isn't it?

[RaphaelDLG]

Also, I don't get why people are so obsessed with "name recognition."

Because in political science literature it's right up there with money and incumbency (#1 factor) as the most important factors for electoral success

[Figueira]

Also, I don't get why people are so obsessed with "name recognition."

Because in political science literature it's right up there with money and incumbency (#1 factor) as the most important factors for electoral success

Name recognition when the primaries are actually happening, sure. But not name recognition three years out.