Elizabeth Warren in the Democratic Nomination

[American2020]

Elizabeth Warren's path in a democratic nomination campaign

Big tests:
-Midwestern states (OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, IL)
-PA
-Southern states with african-americains (SC, NC, GA, AL, FL, MS, LA, TX)
-Western states with latinos (CO, NM, NV, AZ)
-Mountain states

Shoo-in:
-OK
-Great plain states (NE, SD, ND)
-North-East

The great question is if she'd be able to rally Obama's coalition.

[PresidentSamTilden]

-Southern states with african-americains (SC, NC, GA, AL, FL, MS, LA, TX)

DE functions similarly to these, in my view. You can't carry the state without appealing to African Americans. If Warren or anyone with Dem Soc platform wants to win over the democratic party, they have to find a way to do that.

[Crumpets]

I seriously doubt she'd be a shoo-in in Oklahoma any more than Hillary was a shoo-in in Illinois, especially if there's a conservative Democrat in the running as well. Remember, this is a state Wesley Clark won in 2004.

[Figueira]

If she's the left-wing candidate, I think she wins every New England state with the possible exception of CT (I think she wins CT though). Also UT, CO, and some other Western states.

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting note from the latest PPP national poll: Warren’s support in the hypothetical Democratic primary matchup skews even more white and more liberal than Sanders’s support does….but it’s not as skewed towards the young.

In any case, the states where Warren would be favored to do well in the primary (if we actually want to handicap it at this ridiculously early stage) would be the states where the Democratic primary electorate has the highest share of white liberals.  Though obviously it depends on who her opponents would be.

[Shadows]

Interesting note from the latest PPP national poll: Warren’s support in the hypothetical Democratic primary matchup skews even more white and more liberal than Sanders’s support does….but it’s not as skewed towards the young.

In any case, the states where Warren would be favored to do well in the primary (if we actually want to handicap it at this ridiculously early stage) would be the states where the Democratic primary electorate has the highest share of white liberals.  Though obviously it depends on who her opponents would be.

Ofcourse she isn't winning anything if Bernie is running & I don't think they both will run. I think it depends on the field, how the moderate vote is getting divided, if it can converge on a Biden.

If you have a Biden it will be very difficult for Warren. For one, she may do well in the North Eastern & west coast like Bernie & she will as bad in the South, but I don't know what she will do in the plains & some conservative areas & in the mid-west

I don't think she has the conservative vote which Bernie swept in ID, UT, KS, NE etc (Look at the PPP Poll, Bernie has the best numbers among a section of conservatives, better than Biden & Warren does worse). And I don't think she will do as good as Bernie in the mid-west in MI, WI, IN, IA.

So this makes it even harder for her to pull a primary win! Warren will surely lose if Biden runs!

[Thunderbird is the word]

Interesting note from the latest PPP national poll: Warren’s support in the hypothetical Democratic primary matchup skews even more white and more liberal than Sanders’s support does….but it’s not as skewed towards the young.

In any case, the states where Warren would be favored to do well in the primary (if we actually want to handicap it at this ridiculously early stage) would be the states where the Democratic primary electorate has the highest share of white liberals.  Though obviously it depends on who her opponents would be.

I think her coalition will be slightly different then Sanders in that she'll win over more Hillary supporters from this time who might have been inclined to support her for gender reasons or because they were just afraid of nominating someone with the Socialist label. I could potentially see someone like Booker possibly getting to her left on issues on criminal justice reform while she outflanks him on Wall Street and you'd see the current divide unfolding on the left over identity politics play out that way. Another wild card I could see though is a minority of Sanders supporters (the bernieorbust types) who would still be bitter over Warren's failure to endorse Bernie and would support someone like Tulsi Gabbard who would possibly have a spoiler effect on the left.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I think she'd have a similar ceiling to the one Ted Cruz faced this year. Her ideology and persona will just have limited appeal, just like Cruz's did even though basically everything went right for him.

She could well win both Iowa and New Hampshire under the right circumstances, though, but I don't see her winning much after that.

[Ljube]

She should have run this year.

She will lose the nomination in 2020.

Unless all stronger candidates opt out due to their realzation they can't beat Trump.

[Progressive]

I think it all depends on the mood of the electorate.

In 2004, albeit I was still a pre-teen, I figured the Democratic base and electorate was going to select a let's tear s@!t done type of candidate. I saw Howard Dean's stock rise and I saw the 2000 VP candidate Lieberman without a chance in hell of winning. But then it seems like the party rallied around the guy perceived as the "grownup in the room" for better or worse--probably for worse--instead of the candidate I thought would be the best at the time.

So I'm curious what the actual mood will be like. I think Elizabeth Warren "checks off a lot of boxes" for people. She is fiercely progressive, fiercely smart, and probably can bridge the gap between activists and party stalwarts.

[Blair]

She, unlike Bernie has 4 years to work on her outreach with African-Americans. Of course the old adage about a rising tide lifting all the boats would be true with her; if she wins Iowa/New Hampshire after months of good fundraising, and high poll numbers her lack of support from African Americans won't sink her

[Shadows]

I don't think there is any chance she will do well among African Americans. I think it will be very difficult for her to win Iowa & Bernie did really well in Iowa, NH too. Let us see - 3 years is a long time!

[Del Tachi]

In a race sans Biden and Sanders, I can easily see the nomination becoming a Warren vs. Booker matchup. 

I think Warren would be slightly favored in this scenario, but Booker would probably sweep the South and have a chance in states like CA and IL. 

[Crumpets]

She, unlike Bernie has 4 years to work on her outreach with African-Americans. Of course the old adage about a rising tide lifting all the boats would be true with her; if she wins Iowa/New Hampshire after months of good fundraising, and high poll numbers her lack of support from African Americans won't sink her

Pretty much. There's always the chance that African Americans don't break strongly for any one particular candidate. Clinton and Obama were pretty unique in this regard in the last two cycles, but you don't have to go very far back to find when Southern states were all over the place in the Democratic primary.

[lulu]

In a race sans Biden and Sanders, I can easily see the nomination becoming a Warren vs. Booker matchup. 

I think Warren would be slightly favored in this scenario, but Booker would probably sweep the South and have a chance in states like CA and IL. 

Hopefully not Booker can't stand him he is the money candidate plus i assume there will be issues as he is single therefore rumours will arise. Plus Trump would associate booker with Obama but then again that could work in his favour.

[OneJ]

This does make me wonder, if in 2020 becomes a battle for the Democratic Nomination, Bernie v. Elizabeth, who does win each demographic, especially us African Americans? Assume there is no other major candidate.

Each Demographic group and the possible winner:
-White Seniors/younger Baby Boomers: Split
-White GenXers: Sanders
-White Millennials and GenZers: Sanders

-Black Seniors/younger Baby Boomers: Lean Sanders
-Black GenXers: Sanders
-Black Millennials and GenZers: Sanders

-Latino Seniors/younger Baby Boomers: Split
-Latino GenXers: Sanders
-Latino Millennials and GenZers: Sanders

-Asian Seniors/younger Baby Boomers: Sanders
-Asian GenXers: Sanders
-Asian Millennials and GenZers: Sanders

*My guesses are just made up and based on favorable ratings from PPP.

[Shadows]

This does make me wonder, if in 2020 becomes a battle for the Democratic Nomination, Bernie v. Elizabeth, who does win each demographic, especially us African Americans? Assume there is no other major candidate.

Each Demographic group and the possible winner:
-White Seniors/younger Baby Boomers: Split
-White GenXers: Sanders
-White Millennials and GenZers: Sanders

-Black Seniors/younger Baby Boomers: Lean Sanders
-Black GenXers: Sanders
-Black Millennials and GenZers: Sanders

-Latino Seniors/younger Baby Boomers: Split
-Latino GenXers: Sanders
-Latino Millennials and GenZers: Sanders

-Asian Seniors/younger Baby Boomers: Sanders
-Asian GenXers: Sanders
-Asian Millennials and GenZers: Sanders

*My guesses are just made up and based on favorable ratings from PPP.

They would never run together IMO - And surely a Biden would run if they both run - Or some guy like Booker will get large parts of the establishment support!