Chances of taking Tom Cotton down in 2020 and Marco Rubio down in 2022

[peterthlee]

On 17 November 2016, Joshua Wong, the Secretary of the Hong Kong localist group Demosisto, met with senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Tom Cotton (R-AR). After the meeting, the duo tabled the revised Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which serves as 'punitive measures' for officials 'implementing repression on local human rights' in HK.

Pro-beijing camp vented their anger not only on Wong, ridiculing him as 'traitor', but also on the duo. They hoped that 'whizzy Americans could take them down no sooner'.

Discuss the chances of taking Tom Cotton down in 2020, as well as Marco Rubio in 2022.

Note: this thread shall not discuss the justifications of the Act.

[peterthlee]

My prediction:
Cotton--no way will he be taken down, even in Dem landslide, except that he being entangled in massive scandal and replaced. AR is too crimson red to flip.

Rubio--if Trump is re-elected, he will be in real danger. Otherwise, he will still eke out a narrow win of low to middle single digits in 2022, as in the case of 2016.

[peterthlee]

Despite my innate pan-Chinese nationalism, I try to convince those pro-Beijing advocates not to pipe-dream on taking Cotton down in 2020. Indeed, I'm quite confident that Cotton will secure over 60 percent. He bonded to Trump much more tightly than his fellow Boozman, and this increases his chances a lot.

[Xing]

I'd love to see Cotton lose, but it's not happening. Flawless Beautiful Marco will be likely be targeted in 2022 (if he runs), but who knows who his opponent will be six years from now...

[smoltchanov]

I'd love to see Cotton lose, but it's not happening. Flawless Beautiful Marco will be likely be targeted in 2022 (if he runs), but who knows who his opponent will be six years from now...

+1

[morgieb]

Cotton's chances of losing is somewhere near zero. I just can't see how Democrats can compete in Arkansas by 2020.

Rubio would be rather vulnerable with Trump in a second term, less so with an incumbent Democrat. Too early to say.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Assuming voting patterns are close to what they are now:

Cotton's seat will be Safe Republican and will not be in danger unless he says something really stupid.

Rubio will be a target, though just how much of a target he will be remains to be seen. If 2022 looks to be a neutral or better year for the GOP, Dems may well stay out of Florida and look to spend that money in less expensive states like they did this year.

[Figueira]

Cotton isn't losing barring very, very weird circumstances.

Rubio depends on what kind of a year 2022 is. He will be a top target for Democrats that year no matter what.

[Miles]

Cotton -> safe barring DG/LB, sadly.

Rubio -> Can only see him losing if its a 6th year Trump midterm.

[peterthlee]

Indeed, to unseat Cotton, he needs to DO something immoral or law-breaching (rape, murder, minority discrimination, etc), not just SAY something stupid. I doubt whether a GOP split would result in Dem win, as AR is now scarlet red, and when Pryor could only got high 30s as an INCUMBENT, will any remaining AR Dems outperform him?
After Cotton and Rubio tabled the Act, some pro-Beijing hardcores already discredited them as 'lunatic'.

[Santander]

Take your pro-Peking drivel elsewhere. This forum is about American politics and by extension, American values. The central organizing principle of this republic is freedom. Hong Kong was a few tiny fishing villages before Britain came and turned it into the greatest city in the world east of Jerusalem. Supporting Chinese oppression in Hong Kong is the same thing as supporting ISIS oppression in Iraq and Syria.

(Not saying that I support Joshua Wong - he's a silly kid)

[DavidB.]

Take your pro-Peking drivel elsewhere.

Yeah, this.

[peterthlee]

Take your pro-Peking drivel elsewhere. This forum is about American politics and by extension, American values. The central organizing principle of this republic is freedom. Hong Kong was a few tiny fishing villages before Britain came and turned it into the greatest city in the world east of Jerusalem. Supporting Chinese oppression in Hong Kong is the same thing as supporting ISIS oppression in Iraq and Syria.

(Not saying that I support Joshua Wong - he's a silly kid)

Haha, I am sorry for having such connotation. I just quoted from some really diehards of pro-Beijing. I also want to have universal suffrage (no matter in what form) in the mear future. I quoted their curses to say that stupidity could be viewed from different aspects -- it is very subjective. Some might say that they are guards of democracy, which I respect. I just want to exemplify that to make Cotton lose in re-election, he needs to do something really immoral by conventional standards, not just from a perspective.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Wouldn't China supporting their opponents actually help them?

[Figueira]

Wouldn't China supporting their opponents actually help them?

I dunno. Being supported by a hostile foreign power seemed to pay off this time.

[peterthlee]

Wouldn't China supporting their opponents actually help them?

Quite hard to predict. Remember the first draft of the bill is co-proposed by Democrat Sherrod Brown (D-OH).
In addition, for omegascarlet, as you go through the thread, unless Cotton does something really immoral (e.g. rape, indecent public appearance), he will win by at least 15 percent.
Even if he antagonizes people by uttering the same words as Todd Akin, he will still win by double digits.
Don't know about Rubio, but as I have fliped through Chinese politics book, the cyber-organization of PLA is somewhat incomparable to Russia. Moreover, Florida has a big population, and after Trump's surprise win, people might be inclined to vote in person, not through electronic system.
Rubio will still be a top target in 2022 no matter who is POTUS (Democrats or Trump) then.

Note: I fiercely object to any cyber-attacks in electoral systems which favour a particular candidate in my home city. Need not to say any foreign countries, though I'm pro-Beijing.