National average trends
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  National average trends
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Author Topic: National average trends  (Read 1958 times)
Gustaf
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« on: July 18, 2005, 07:57:38 AM »

Here's a map of 2004. The shading works like this:

30%=upto 3% greater margin than the national average for a party.

40%=upto 5%
50%=upto 7%
60%=upto 10%
70%=upto 15%
80%=upto 20%
90%= more than 20%



The idea is to make more of those and see if we can establish trends.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2005, 12:26:54 AM »

I assume that the national average would be the percentage of the vote each party received?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2005, 03:02:44 AM »

The national average as usually defined here on Atlasia... Wink
For simplicity's sake I've used the margin. Basically, I've adjusted the numbers so that for every state Bush won I've subtracted his national margin from his margin in the state and done the opposite for Kerry.
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Smash255
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« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2005, 03:39:43 AM »
« Edited: July 19, 2005, 03:53:18 AM by Smash255 »

2000


1996

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Smash255
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« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2005, 04:14:42 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2005, 02:55:09 AM by Smash255 »

1992


1988


By the way I have used the 2004 EV's for all the maps
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Gustaf
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« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2005, 05:49:59 AM »

Thanks. Smiley I would say from this that Minnesota, for instance is not really going anywhere, despite the claims to the contrary. Wisconsin and Ohio, for instance seem to be going towards the Democrats.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2005, 05:58:17 AM »

It can also be seen that the polarization has increased constantly. I would say that the states likely to remain "light" for the next election are Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, New Hampshire, Oregon, Florida, Iowa and Wisconsin.
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DanielX
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« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2005, 09:13:50 AM »

Thanks. Smiley I would say from this that Minnesota, for instance is not really going anywhere, despite the claims to the contrary. Wisconsin and Ohio, for instance seem to be going towards the Democrats.

Uh.. 1988 was wrong: Wisconsin should be solid Democrat, not solid Republican. It did, after all, go to Dukakis. Tongue
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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2005, 10:12:44 AM »

Thanks. Smiley I would say from this that Minnesota, for instance is not really going anywhere, despite the claims to the contrary. Wisconsin and Ohio, for instance seem to be going towards the Democrats.

Uh.. 1988 was wrong: Wisconsin should be solid Democrat, not solid Republican. It did, after all, go to Dukakis. Tongue

Since what you're saying contradicts my statement I will choose to ignore it.

(Yeah, of course...I should've remembered that, silly me.)
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2005, 03:32:33 PM »


I think the biggest trend is that the Republican states have become much more Republican.   Much darker blues on the 2004 map than previous ones.  I suppose the same must be true of the Democratic states, but it is not as obvious.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2005, 05:13:11 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2005, 05:15:00 PM by TakeOurCountryBack »


I think the biggest trend is that the Republican states have become much more Republican.   Much darker blues on the 2004 map than previous ones.  I suppose the same must be true of the Democratic states, but it is not as obvious.

True, I think we are headed for a time were you see presidential canidates cracking 60% a lot more.  I think the GOP might actually get 60% across the South and Dems 60% in the Northest in one election.  True Red and Blue states might be close, as it seems like a North-South rivalry is coming back.  This is now 2 straight election where the entire Northeast voted liberal (remember NH's Nader vote in 2000) and the entire Southeast voted conservative.  How longs it been since that happened? 
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A18
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« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2005, 05:20:52 PM »

It never has happened.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2005, 05:24:05 PM »

How longs it been since that happened? 

I don't think anyone has ever won 100% across the "North" or the "South" before...
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Smash255
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« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2005, 02:57:00 AM »

corrected the mistake on WI in 88
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