National average trends

[Gustaf]

Here's a map of 2004. The shading works like this:

30%=upto 3% greater margin than the national average for a party.

40%=upto 5%
50%=upto 7%
60%=upto 10%
70%=upto 15%
80%=upto 20%
90%= more than 20%



The idea is to make more of those and see if we can establish trends.

[Gustaf]

The national average as usually defined here on Atlasia...
For simplicity's sake I've used the margin. Basically, I've adjusted the numbers so that for every state Bush won I've subtracted his national margin from his margin in the state and done the opposite for Kerry.

[Gustaf]

Thanks. I would say from this that Minnesota, for instance is not really going anywhere, despite the claims to the contrary. Wisconsin and Ohio, for instance seem to be going towards the Democrats.

[Gustaf]

It can also be seen that the polarization has increased constantly. I would say that the states likely to remain "light" for the next election are Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, New Hampshire, Oregon, Florida, Iowa and Wisconsin.

[Gustaf]

Thanks. I would say from this that Minnesota, for instance is not really going anywhere, despite the claims to the contrary. Wisconsin and Ohio, for instance seem to be going towards the Democrats.

Uh.. 1988 was wrong: Wisconsin should be solid Democrat, not solid Republican. It did, after all, go to Dukakis.

Since what you're saying contradicts my statement I will choose to ignore it.

(Yeah, of course...I should've remembered that, silly me.)