Why did Genesee County (Flint), MI swing so strongly Republican?
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  Why did Genesee County (Flint), MI swing so strongly Republican?
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Author Topic: Why did Genesee County (Flint), MI swing so strongly Republican?  (Read 2406 times)
Crumpets
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« on: December 31, 2016, 02:11:35 PM »

Looking at the swing map of Michigan, the suburbs of Detroit and the area around Grand Rapids were some of the few places to swing towards the Democrats. One of the many places that didn't was Genesee County, home of Flint. If I had to guess one county in Michigan which would have swung to the Democrats in an otherwise bad year, it would have been Genesee, and yet it seems to have swung at least 15 points to the Republicans. Any ideas why? Is the lead poisoning not seen as much of a partisan issue there as it was from afar? Low turnout among minorities? Flint proper swinging to the Democrats with the rest of the county compensating with an even larger swing to the Republicans?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2016, 02:58:21 PM »
« Edited: December 31, 2016, 03:05:00 PM by AKCreative »

Genesee is actually more than two thirds white and not really a large metro.   In the past the African American vote did help the Dems, but the real source of strength in the county for Dems was union turnout,  which were largely white working class.

It's pretty much just the city of Flint that votes heavily Democrat now,  with all of the outer suburbs voting Republican.   It's pretty much the exact same scenario you see in the rest of the country.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2016, 03:04:18 PM »

I think many Flint residents moved away from the area, so Flint's proportion of the vote in the county decreased.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #3 on: January 01, 2017, 12:46:45 AM »

I think many Flint residents moved away from the area, so Flint's proportion of the vote in the county decreased.
In 1930, Flint was 74% of the county population, with the city quadrupling in population between 1910-1930. Between 1910 and 1930, the city increased by 118K and the rest of the county added 29K.

When Flint hit its peak population of 197K in 1960, it was 53% of the county population. Between 1930 and 1960, the city added 41K and the remainder of the county added 121K.

By the time Genesee hit its peak population in 1980. Flint was 36% of the county population. Between 1960 and 1980, the city declined 37K and its population was similar to what it was in 1930. The remainder of the county had added 113K.

By 2010, Flint was 24% of the county population. Between 1980 and 2010, Flint lost 58K or 36% of its population. The remainder of the county gained 34K.
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Shadows
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« Reply #4 on: January 01, 2017, 06:07:27 AM »

Because Hillary was the "Establishment" candidate who used the crisis for publicity while Trump was the change candidate.

The Wikileaks expose had a devastating effect on turnout - They gave away questions to Hillary about a mother asking about his child poisoned & what not & Hillary prepared for it. Wikileaks also told us about how Hillary wanted to use the Flint Crisis & gain publicity.

I remember the person whose question was leaked by Donna Brazile came to Fox News & said she felt betrayed & taken advantage of for political reasons. She was a Democrat & said she will refuse to vote for either candidate.

These kind of things turned people off  - Apart from the usual Hillary Establishment & White Working Class people issue!
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2017, 10:09:09 AM »

Simple: Protectionism and anti-trade sentiment.  Same as the rest of the Rust Belt, and same as the working class British voters who supported Brexit.
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Beet
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« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2017, 03:32:41 PM »

I would have thought Flint swinging strongly Republican in an election such as this would be expected. It's a beaten-down industrial area. I wouldn't be surprised if the city of Flint swung Republican, either.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2017, 06:16:18 PM »

They just cant get enough of that Lead water I guess
That stuff started with a Democrat mayor and city council, and another Democrat-run city that held them hostage until they paid an exorbitant fee to reconnect with their water.  Try again.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2017, 06:18:17 PM »

Let me put it this way:

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SWE
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2017, 06:46:18 PM »

Flint proper swinging to the Democrats with the rest of the county compensating with an even larger swing to the Republicans?
Nope, even Flint proper itself swung GOP.
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RI
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« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2017, 07:39:01 PM »

Flint proper swinging to the Democrats with the rest of the county compensating with an even larger swing to the Republicans?
Nope, even Flint proper itself swung GOP.

By 10 points, even.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2017, 11:20:43 PM »

Republicans seem to do great in counties no-one wants to live in (if they had a choice), Genesee County (Flint) seems to fit this mold, particularly in light of it's recent struggles.

Sigh.... Non Swing Voter, just when I thought you were starting to realize the real America that most of us live in, you post something that is absolutely absurd and silly....

You need to admit in retrospect that the whole concept of "counties that no-one wants to live in" is really  smacking of a world view that only 5-10% of Americans might subscribe to that includes members of both political parties....

Have you ever lived in a neighborhood that the wealthier communities in your area considered to be "on the wrong side of the tracks"? Have you ever gone to a public elementary, middle or High School in a working-class community, where simply because of where you live is "looked down upon" by those of your own age, simply because of where you live? Have you ever worked a job, where simply because of your occupation many consider to be "less worthy" of respect, such as a janitor, fast-food/ food sector, working the belt in a manufacturing line?

Now, back to the point that several have made, the reason that even the City of Flint, as well as Genesee swung towards Trump is clearly based predominately on economics, and the fact that the Democratic Candidate, although she certainly addressed the water issue, did little to talk about economic issues in a way that resonated within the city of Flint, nor the larger surrounding communities within the county.

Michael Moore, regardless of one's personal opinions about him, was one of the few who predicted that Trump would win the General Election.... he knows Flint and the surrounding area extremely well, not to speak of Macomb County and Western Wayne County.
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« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2017, 12:55:17 AM »

I oppose Obamacare, too, Nonswing. Glad we are, again, agreed on something.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2017, 01:38:12 AM »

Republicans seem to do great in counties no-one wants to live in (if they had a choice), Genesee County (Flint) seems to fit this mold, particularly in light of it's recent struggles.

Sigh.... Non Swing Voter, just when I thought you were starting to realize the real America that most of us live in, you post something that is absolutely absurd and silly....

You need to admit in retrospect that the whole concept of "counties that no-one wants to live in" is really  smacking of a world view that only 5-10% of Americans might subscribe to that includes members of both political parties....

Have you ever lived in a neighborhood that the wealthier communities in your area considered to be "on the wrong side of the tracks"? Have you ever gone to a public elementary, middle or High School in a working-class community, where simply because of where you live is "looked down upon" by those of your own age, simply because of where you live? Have you ever worked a job, where simply because of your occupation many consider to be "less worthy" of respect, such as a janitor, fast-food/ food sector, working the belt in a manufacturing line?

Now, back to the point that several have made, the reason that even the City of Flint, as well as Genesee swung towards Trump is clearly based predominately on economics, and the fact that the Democratic Candidate, although she certainly addressed the water issue, did little to talk about economic issues in a way that resonated within the city of Flint, nor the larger surrounding communities within the county.

Michael Moore, regardless of one's personal opinions about him, was one of the few who predicted that Trump would win the General Election.... he knows Flint and the surrounding area extremely well, not to speak of Macomb County and Western Wayne County.

Yes, I lived in such neighborhoods in college, which is why I did something with myself like got an education and a job.  I have little empathy for most of the losers who choose to do nothing with themselves and then demand government handouts while at the same time demanding Obamacare be repealed and espousing racist views about immigrants.  I am glad these people are no longer democrats.

So.... NonSwingVoter (NSV) if you don't mind me taking the liberty of shrinking down your screen name, simply because it is taking a considerable amount of time having to repeatedly type out the entire deal....

Everything you just posted in the bolded portion, appears to reinforce all of the stereotypes of working-class Americans, that was first nationalized under Republican Presidential candidate Richard Nixon, as part of the infamous Southern strategy, and then a few years later by Ronald Reagan...

Granted their goal was to tie African-Americans as being "lazy and on government handouts" as part of the whole strategy to create a permanent Republican Majority in the South....

Your argument appears to be an exact mirror of modern Republican political leaders, where now instead of everything being quite as "racialized" is essentially a position where anyone whom is receiving any kind of government assistance (Not sure about your positions regarding entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, Unemployment Insurance, etc...) is somehow lazy and not entitled to the benefits that their taxes have paid into as part of the social safety net....

Quite frankly Sir, I wonder why you are even a Democrat?

There are many Republican friends, family members and coworkers that have greater understanding on these issues than some of your occasional posts appear to exhibit, although likely as is the nature of an internet Forum, it is often easy to misconstrue simple words without overall context.

I certainly understand your anger and frustration with the current state of affairs in our great nation, and although I believe I likely agree with you on a wide variety of policy positions, "living in a few neighborhoods in college" is not the same thing as growing up in, living and working over many years in rural and small-town America (Where believe it or not there used to be a boatload of Democrats in most places outside of the Deep South until recently).
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2017, 02:06:38 AM »

Republicans seem to do great in counties no-one wants to live in (if they had a choice), Genesee County (Flint) seems to fit this mold, particularly in light of it's recent struggles.

Sigh.... Non Swing Voter, just when I thought you were starting to realize the real America that most of us live in, you post something that is absolutely absurd and silly....

You need to admit in retrospect that the whole concept of "counties that no-one wants to live in" is really  smacking of a world view that only 5-10% of Americans might subscribe to that includes members of both political parties....

Have you ever lived in a neighborhood that the wealthier communities in your area considered to be "on the wrong side of the tracks"? Have you ever gone to a public elementary, middle or High School in a working-class community, where simply because of where you live is "looked down upon" by those of your own age, simply because of where you live? Have you ever worked a job, where simply because of your occupation many consider to be "less worthy" of respect, such as a janitor, fast-food/ food sector, working the belt in a manufacturing line?

Now, back to the point that several have made, the reason that even the City of Flint, as well as Genesee swung towards Trump is clearly based predominately on economics, and the fact that the Democratic Candidate, although she certainly addressed the water issue, did little to talk about economic issues in a way that resonated within the city of Flint, nor the larger surrounding communities within the county.

Michael Moore, regardless of one's personal opinions about him, was one of the few who predicted that Trump would win the General Election.... he knows Flint and the surrounding area extremely well, not to speak of Macomb County and Western Wayne County.

The point you made (bolded above) is actually what's absurd.  Living in the middle of no-where does not mean someone lives in the "REAL AMERICA."  In fact, the majority of the population lives in urban or close in suburban areas.  It's this kind of thought process that "middle America" is somehow "more American" than people on the coasts (who drive the whole damn economy and pay far more than their fair share of taxes) is the absurd undercurrent of American politics that needs to be stamped out.  I'm tired of paying to fund Obamacare for rural people who then say they're the "real Americans" and the rest of us are "coastal elites."

Not sure if you have noticed my avatar, but I currently live in the West Coast....

Oregon is a lot more than just Metro-Portland..... Washington is a lot more than just Metro- Seattle/Tacoma. California is a lot more than just Metro Bay Area/SoCal and throw in Metro Sacramento just for fun....

I have lived in Ohio for four years, lived in Texas for three years, family up and down the Eastern seaboard...

I do agree that many Republicans like to pull out California, New York, Massachusetts, etc as punching bags and stereotypical of the "Liberal Coastal Elites"....

I know how badly we get screwed by Federal tax redistribution policies that have massively transferred the wealth from the Coasts, and the industrial trade union backbone of the MidWest to the Deep South and effectively subsidize their reactionary anti-worker and the corporate agenda of the MNCs from the early '70s onwards.

Trust me, it's at a point that if CalExit passes I'll be right there with most of the West Coast as part of secession movement that creates a real Progressive Nation based upon Labor & Environmental standards, that includes not only a $15/Hr minimum wage, but additionally dignity and respect for foreign nationals that work in the fields, restaurants, hotels, medical sector and the boardrooms of Silicon Valley and Silicon Forest....

Now, there were some major swings towards Trump in many mill towns and rural communities in Oregon & Washington..... You can choose to live in a bubble and believe they did that simply because they "hate" Latinos and Blacks, or actually look at what has been happening in what you apparently do not consider to be "real America" which is a massive loss of decent paying, and although not entirely union jobs, still paying prevailing industry wages, as a direct result of unfair trade policies that Democratic and Republican administrations alike, although House Dems have been pretty solid on this issue for quite some time, Senate Democrats not so much....

You can either chose to bury your head in the sand and blame it on WWC voters, or look at the alternate perspective, which is that the whole "Free" trade agenda where MNCs and the financial sector have been selling us down the river and lining the pockets of both political parties and Americans are finally starting to wake up to the long-term impact of these policies....

Hey---- I like you NSV, but I will call BS when I see it, regardless of the party avatar.

If your concept of the future of the Democratic Party solely resides in urban/suburban enclaves, and the "emerging Democratic Majority" then it appears I can offer you a really good deal on a bridge in Brooklyn that Karl Rove tried to buy and resell back in the early 2000s...  Smiley
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Beet
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2017, 02:08:03 AM »

Non Swing Voter. We need you in the party, we need everyone in it. Just accept, both NOVA Green and Non Swing Voter, this is a big, diverse country with a lot of different types of people and situations. It's hard to paint everyone with the same broad brush. Unless you've walked a mile in their shoes, you don't know.

As for Flint, why would they vote for Clinton, who represented the status quo? Their county is sh**t, so the status quo is by definition working out poorly for them. That does not change the fact that the votes of these areas are needed. Next time, the Democratic party has GOT to offer something more.
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