Can Trump win AZ without Maricopa county?

[5280]

Looking at the results of the AZ 2016 election map, I think Trump could win without Maricopa county, but it would be a a fine line to cross.  He would have to increase turnout in Mohave (Kingman), Yavapai (Prescott, Prescott Valley, Cottonwood) and Pinal (SanTan, Florence, Coolidge) counties.

Maricopa county:

747,361 Trump 47%
702,907 Clinton 44%

Trump only won with 44,454 votes in Maricopa alone. If you give those all to Clinton instead, she would win Maricopa county but still lose the state by 2,306 votes in Maricopa alone. That makes Trump and Clinton at 48%

How does Trump gain more voters in Maricopa county in 2020?

[heatcharger]

If he lost Maricopa County, that means he probably got crushed in Pima County, so I'll say no.

[5280]

Not necessarily, this could be his winning map in 2020. Increase turnout to 70% in Yavapai, Pinal and Cochise counties.

[heatcharger]

Pima County swung ~7 points to the left from 2012 while Maricopa swung ~8 points to the left, so I'd say they are relatively correlated. If you assume the Democrat wins Maricopa by the same margin Trump won this year, that would be a ~6 point swing left, and so if Pima swung by a similar magnitude, I think it would be enough to flip the state. I'm not saying this is actually likely though.

Also, why would those counties you mentioned have a large uptick in turnout but not the rest of the state?

[DrScholl]

Probably not. The only person in recent political history to win statewide while failing to carry Maricopa County was Janet Napolitano and that was with a third party candidate on the ballot.

[5280]

Pima County swung ~7 points to the left from 2012 while Maricopa swung ~8 points to the left, so I'd say they are relatively correlated. If you assume the Democrat wins Maricopa by the same margin Trump won this year, that would be a ~6 point swing left, and so if Pima swung by a similar magnitude, I think it would be enough to flip the state. I'm not saying this is actually likely though.

Also, why would those counties you mentioned have a large uptick in turnout but not the rest of the state?

- Dissatisfied GOP voters living in Phoenix moving to nearby counties
- Influx of new retirees moving from out of state to other non-Phoenix/Tucson cities
- Trump bringing blue collared jobs not in Maricopa/Pima counties

Phoenix itself is too much like socal. The rest of the state is like rural Wyoming and Colorado.

[Nyvin]

Phoenix itself is too much like socal. The rest of the state is like rural Wyoming and Colorado.

It's definitely nothing like Wyoming,  there's some similarities to Colorado.   It has way more Native Americans then either one for starters, and much more of a military presence too.   

Wyoming is also almost exclusively rural, while Arizona does have a few smaller cities (Flagstaff, Yuma, etc).   

[Person Man]

Phoenix itself is too much like socal. The rest of the state is like rural Wyoming and Colorado.

It's definitely nothing like Wyoming,  there's some similarities to Colorado.   It has way more Native Americans then either one for starters, and much more of a military presence too.   

Wyoming is also almost exclusively rural, while Arizona does have a few smaller cities (Flagstaff, Yuma, etc).   

Those towns are the sizes of the biggest towns in Wyoming. Its a good comparison. Wyoming has a lot of natives. Colorado has a lot of Airmen.

It would be very hard for Trump to win wo Mariicopa.

[5280]

Phoenix itself is too much like socal. The rest of the state is like rural Wyoming and Colorado.

It's definitely nothing like Wyoming,  there's some similarities to Colorado.   It has way more Native Americans then either one for starters, and much more of a military presence too.  

Wyoming is also almost exclusively rural, while Arizona does have a few smaller cities (Flagstaff, Yuma, etc).  

Things that Arizona and Wyoming that are similar:

- Ranchers, cowboys, western culture and some agriculture.
- Both big states
- Rural areas are conservative
- Have similar medium sized cities. Cheyenne, Casper are a lot like Prescott and Prescott Valley in population. Laramie Wyoming is a smaller version of Flagstaff.

Things that Arizona and Wyoming that are NOT similar:

- Arizona has two large metropolitan area, Phoenix and Tucson. Wyoming does not have either.
- Arizona has more Native Americans and Latinos.
- Wyoming has more natural resource jobs in oil fields and mining

[Person Man]

Phoenix itself is too much like socal. The rest of the state is like rural Wyoming and Colorado.

It's definitely nothing like Wyoming,  there's some similarities to Colorado.   It has way more Native Americans then either one for starters, and much more of a military presence too.  

Wyoming is also almost exclusively rural, while Arizona does have a few smaller cities (Flagstaff, Yuma, etc).  

Things that Arizona and Wyoming that are similar:

- Ranchers, cowboys, western culture and some agriculture.
- Both big states
- Rural areas are conservative
- Have similar medium sized cities. Cheyenne, Casper are a lot like Prescott and Prescott Valley in population. Laramie Wyoming is a smaller version of Flagstaff.

Things that Arizona and Wyoming that are NOT similar:

- Arizona has two large metropolitan area, Phoenix and Tucson. Wyoming does not have either.
- Arizona has more Native Americans and Latinos.
- Wyoming has more natural resource jobs in oil fields and mining

That is an interesting question. What is making Arizona more conservative than the states around it. It's not  a dependence on the EPA letting them do whatever they want.

My guess is that its more like Florida- old people threatened by changed to the point they risk their social security. And Arizona is part of the Jello Belt. I heard they are Mormons there than Non-Fundamentalist Protestants...

[Xing]

Probably not by more than 1-2%, and that's assuming he loses Maricopa in a squeaker. If Democrats win the county by a decent margin and continue to do well in places like Coconino and Pima, he probably loses Arizona.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I doubt it.

[Gabagool102]

It would be nearly impossible.

[Del Tachi]

The answer is yes, obviously.

If you shift enough votes in Maricopa for Clinton to win it in 2016, Trump still wins AZ.

In light of this, I don't see how posters are saying its "nearly impossible" for it to happen.

Also, Maricopa will probably swing Trump in 2020.  While there's certainly a lot of Hispanics there, there's also a lot of "Never Trump" Republicans in the suburbs who would be eager to come back into the fold in 2020 if Trump is reasonably popular. 

[ElectionsGuy]

I think by 2024 a Republican may be able to win without Maricopa, though narrowly. Its 60% of the state but its clearly tacking left compared to the rest of the state. I think the county hasn't voted Democratic since the 1940's.

[Person Man]

Not especially likely. If you want to be technical and say the D only wins it by a few thousand votes, then yes, but I think if that happens, Yuma and Pima would also swing just enough with Maricopa to flip the state.

That is probably why there are areas that will always be a bellwhether even if they lean a certain way.