Review of President/Senate split tickets in last several decades

[Schmitz in 1972]

In this thread, I will work backwards and look at instances where different parties won a state's Senate and Presidential races.

2016

As most of you know by now, there were NO splits at all in 2016, for the first time since the 17th Amendment was ratified in 1913. Whether this perfection turns out to be a plateau or a mere peak remains to be seen, but as will be shown, it is the culmination of a long trend. Nothing sums it up better than New Hampshire, which was about 1,000 votes away in the Ayotte/Hassan race from bucking the trend, but also less than 3,000 votes away from keeping the trend.

34/34

2014

Some called it a Republican wave, but in hindsight, maybe it was just a normal election year. Democrats took no Romney/Trump states, while Republicans won only two Obama/Clinton states.

Cory Gardner R-CO
Susan Collins R-ME

Both CO and ME were just light blue in 2016 (and technically, ME was even partially red). Further, Collins is the most RINO-y of Senators, while Gardner faced a painfully inept opponent in Udall. Had Collins retired, and Udall talked slightly less about abortion, 2014 could have been a clean sweep too.

I don't want to knock a 9 seat gain too much, but the fruit truly was very low hanging.

32/34 (denominator includes only states that voted for the same party in 2008 and 2012)

There were only two Obama/Trump states up in 2014, and they went opposite ways.

Joni Ernst R-IA
Gary Peters D-MI

In IA, Ernst's easier-than-expected victory over Braley presaged Trump's easy win two years later. Meanwhile, in MI, Peters won with ease, giving no indication at all of the upset that was to come.

2012

Republicans held one seat in an Obama state, while losing five in Romney states

Dean Heller R-NV
Joe Donnelly D-IN
Heidi Heitkamp D-ND
Joe Manchin D-WV
Claire McCaskill D-MO
Jon Tester D-MT

Six split-tickets is a lot compared to 2016, but barely any compared to many years to come. And it's important to remember that we were merely 3,000 votes (ND) and two excrementally stupid rape gaffes (MO, IN) away from having only three splits. Manchin deserves credit for winning in a landslide, and it will be interesting to see how he fares in 2018.

27/33

[Schmitz in 1972]

2010

Unlike 2014, this really was a year where Republicans expanded the map. Out of eight splits, Democrats only took one.

Joe Manchin D-WV
Kelly Ayotte R-NH
Chuck Grassley R-IA
Ron Johnson R-WI
Mark Kirk R-IL
Rob Portman R-OH
Marco Rubio R-FL
Pat Toomey R-PA

And all that in addition to two more seats in NC and IN discussed below. The really odd thing about 2010 is that it did a dang good job of previewing the 2016 presidential race. It's almost all there: the dramatic gains  for Republicans in the rust belt, the sore disappointment for them in CO and NV. The only exceptions ended up being Ayotte, who still almost won in 2016, and Kirk, who took advantage of an extremely weak opponent.

Maybe Obama was still never going down in 2012, but it's some interesting food for thought.

27/35

Both Obama/Romney states had elections, and both elections presaged Romney's pickup of them nicely.

Richard Burr R-NC
Dan Coats R-IN

2008

Seven states turned in split-tickets, but much like 2012, the Democrats were the almost unanimous beneficiaries.

Susan Collins R-ME
Max Baucus D-MT
Mark Begich D-AK
Tim Johnson D-SD
Mary Landrieu D-LA
Mark Pryor D-AR
Jay Rockefeller D-WV

All except Begich were incumbents from states with long recent histories of splitting. And Begich only won because his opponent was literally a convicted felon. Ominously for Democrats wary of the 2018 midterm, all six states that the Democrats held in 2008 were swept away in 2014.

28/35

2006

Six states split, and the usual pattern of the splits favoring Democrats returned.

Olympia Snowe R-ME
Robert Byrd D-WV
Kent Conrad D-ND
Claire McCaskill D-MO
Ben Nelson D-NE
Jon Tester D-MT

As with 2008, this list is mainly incumbents from states with a long history of splitting. The two newcomers were McCaskill and Tester. This is one midterm where the far more interesting results came in the Bush/Obama states rather than the Bush/McCain and Kerry/Obama states.

21/27

Six Bush/Obama states had elections. In two states, Republican incumbents survived. In the four others, Democrats triumphed.

John Ensign R-NV
Dick Lugar R-IN
Jeff Bingaman D-NM
Sherrod Brown D-OH
Bill Nelson D-FL
Jim Webb D-VA

This means that a total of NINE Bush states elected Democrats. With Ensign and Lugar hailing from Bush states, Snowe was the only Kerry state winner. There's a point to be made here about the difficulty of predicting the next presidential result from the midterm. Yes, 2006 seemed to predict 2008, but 2010 dramatically failed to predict 2012.

[Schmitz in 1972]

2004

There were seven splits - and at the time, that was a freakishly low number.

Judd Gregg R-NH
Arlen Specter R-PA
Evan Bayh D-IN
Byron Dorgan D-ND
Blanche Lincoln D-AR
Harry Reid D-NV
Ken Salazar D-CO

Once again, it's the same old familiar story: respected incumbent, history of ticket splitting. You know the drill. The interesting one here is Ken Salazar, because he took a Republican held seat in a state Bush won without too much trouble. It was perhaps the very first sign of Colorado's rapid march leftward (just as Jim Webb would be a sign in Virginia two years later).

27/34

2002

Eight states split and yet again most of the same old patterns return.

Norm Coleman R-MN
Susan Collins R-ME
Gordon Smith R-OR
Max Baucus D-MT
Tim Johnson D-SD
Mary Landrieu D-LA
Mark Pryor D-AR
Jay Rockefeller D-WV

The standouts here are Coleman and Pryor. Pryor actually had to beat an incumbent - a rarity for someone on these lists - but that incumbent had gone through a nasty divorce in one of the few states where that really meant something to the average voter. Coleman, of course, benefited from having his opponent die a week before election day (allowing Walter Mondale to complete what was left undone in 1984: losing ALL 50 states). Republicans also came tantalizingly close to knocking off Johnson and Landrieu.

The funny thing is, going into election day, many thought Republicans would LOSE seats, even though the map was really favorable to them. At the time, conventional wisdom had it that Republicans were just defending too many seats, and that midterms never work out for the party in power.

23/31

There were two Gore/Bush states, and one Bush/Kerry state, and all three had Senate elections.

John Sununu R-NH (Bush/Kerry)
Pete Domenici R-NM (Gore/Bush)
Tom Harkin D-IA (Gore/Bush)

Because all three states were so hyper-close in both presidential elections, you really can't read much into the Senate races. Basically, two popular incumbents (Domenici and Harkin) won, and the overall Republican tilt of the year gave Sununu the extra edge in the third race.

2000

There were ten splits, and for once Democrats didn't predominate in them.

Lincoln Chafee R-RI
Jim Jeffords R-VT
Rick Santorum R-PA
Olympia Snowe R-ME
Robert Byrd D-WV
Jean Carnahan D-MO
Kent Conrad D-ND
Ben Nelson D-NE
Bill Nelson D-FL
Zell Miller D-GA

2000 marked the last stand of the northeastern Rockefeller Republican (outside of Maine). Jeffords and Chafee were the last men standing, and neither one was a Republican by the time the 2010s rolled around. Of the Democrats, Ben Nelson was perhaps the most surprising split winner - very much akin, I think, to Heidi Heitkamp in 2012.

24/34