The Feingold Era: 2004 and Beyond

[Progressive]

The Change Presidency: 2004 and Beyond

Russ Feingold/Jeanne Shaheen                            
322 electoral votes
49.7%   60,634,000

George W. Bush*/Dick Cheney*
216 electoral votes
43.4%  52,948,000

Lincoln Chafee/Steve Forbes
0 electoral votes
6.0%    7,320,000

Presidential Election Night Recap

In a stunning election night, U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) were elected president and vice president respectively. Feingold, who was elected the first Jewish president, and Shaheen, elected the first woman vice president, pulled off a stunning upset after polls showed Bush/Cheney support tanking in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, and New Mexico.

Final polls in the weeks leading up to election day showed the Feingold/Shaheen ticket with a consistent popular vote lead over Bush/Cheney and Chafee/Forbes. But a two-week blitz in key swing states pushed the Democrats over the top.

U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I-RI) and business executive Steve Forbes (R-NY) took a significant slice of the moderate Republican vote, as well as Democrats earning above $100,000 a year. Interestingly, the Chafee/Forbes ticket's best showing was in Vermont, not in Rhode Island where the results were:
65% Feingold, 18% Bush, 17% Chafee.

On election day, President Bush's approval rating was 41%, while 54% disapproved.

Senate Recap

Democrats emerged from election night with a 52-48 deficit in the Senate.

Key Democratic wins (outside of IRL) included:

ALASKA
Tony Knowles (D)        48.9%
Lisa Murkowski* (R)    48.0%

FLORIDA
Betty Castor (D)          49.6%
Mel Martinez (R)          48.6%

KENTUCKY
Daniel Mongiardo (D)   51.3%
Jim Bunning* (R)         48.7%

SOUTH DAKOTA
Tom Daschle* (D)         50.2%
John Thune (R)            49.7%

NEXT: The Feingold-Shaheen Transition begins. I will also recap the 2004 Democratic VP vetting process.

[Progressive]

Curious what thoughts are on this matchup

[Thunderbird is the word]

Curious what thoughts are on this matchup

I like it! What's the POD?

[Progressive]

Curious what thoughts are on this matchup

I like it! What's the POD?

POD?

[Progressive]

Feingold Administration Building Blocks

November 2004

White House Chief of Staff: Russ Feingold's campaign manager and transition coordinator Donna Brazile has been named chief of staff.

Senior Advisor to the President: Former Bill Clinton White House Chief of Staff and Senior Counsel John Podesta

White House Press Secretary: Pres.-elect Feingold's Senate Press Secretary Trevor Miller

Chief Strategist and War Transition Advisor to the President: In a signal that withdrawing from Iraq was a top priority for his administration, Pres.-elect Feingold created a new senior White House staff position, and named General Wesley Clark to the post.

Nomination rumors

Pres.-elect Feingold is on the verge of announcing his cabinet picks in subject matter batches. He is expected to name national security and military posts first in an effort to jumpstart a quick execution of withdrawal from Iraq.

Here is a list of potential cabinet picks strategically leaked to the press by the Feingold-Shaheen transition team.

STATE: The Feingold-Shaheen team has been mum on this position. Rumors are swirling that U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) or U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), a former Feingold rival, are the frontrunners for this position. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala is also being considered for the role, as is former Brookings Institute President Michael Armacost

TREASURY: Former Office of Management and Budget chief Alice Rivlin is widely expected to get the job, but, intriguingly, U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and U.S. Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) have emerged as possible dark horse candidates.

ATTORNEY GENERAL: This is another position in which the Feingold-Shaheen team has been very mum about. U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Sonia Sotomayor (NY-2nd Circuit) is thought be considered as is New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (D-NY) and former U.S. Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick.

DEFENSE: The frontrunner is thought to be U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) who crossed the aisle to endorse Feingold just two weeks before Election Day. Other potential candidates are former White House Chief of Staff Leon Panetta, former Veterans Affairs Secretary Togo West among others.

INTERIOR: U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA) is a possible pick, as is Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ), Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) and Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar. Salazar and Inslee are thought to be frontrunners.

AGRICULTURE: Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) is also thought to be a top contender for the Agriculture post. Very little information on other candidates has been announced.

COMMERCE: Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) is also considered a frontrunner for this position as is Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D-TX).

LABOR: U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO) has all but been offered this position and is widely expected to get the job.

HEALTH/HUMAN SERVICES: Former Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT) and former HUD Secretary Henry Cisneros are thought to be the top picks.

HOUSING/URBAN DEVELOPMENT: A number of choices are being considered by the Feingold-Shaheen team including former NYC Public Advocate Mark Green (D-NY), former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial (D-LA), U.S. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH), and Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) who is rumored to be livid that he has not been offered a more prominent cabinet post.

TRANSPORTATION: Gov. Gary Locke (D-WA) is being considered for this role, as is former U.S. Sen. Al D'Amato (R-NY) and Washington, D.C. Mayor Anthony Williams (D-DC).

ENERGY: Gov. Gary Locke (D-WA) and former Vice President Al Gore are considered top choices.

EDUCATION: Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) is lobbying hard for this position. First Lady Laura Bush is thought to be a dark horse candidate, as is NYC Schools Chancellor Joel Klein.

VETERANS AFFAIRS: U.S. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA)

HOMELAND SECURITY: U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and Lt. Gen. Claudia Kennedy are being vetted.

NEXT: Roll out of national security team and a flashback to Iowa Caucuses 2004

[Progressive]

Feingold Administration Announces Cabinet

November - December 2004

STATE U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) has been nominated for Secretary of State.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are upset with the incoming administration because Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) is expected to nominate a Republican to the seat. Sources close to Gov. Pataki suggest that he is considering himself, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Rep. Peter King, and his Lt. Gov. Mary Donohoe.

DEFENSE: U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has accepted the nomination for Secretary of Defense.

In a fascinating move, Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ), who is bound by law to nominate a Senate replacement of the same party as the outgoing senator, will name Cindy McCain, wife of Sec-designate John McCain, to fill his Senate seat. Cindy McCain has pledged not to run for another term and is considering caucusing as an independent or with Democrats. She is also considering a party change, and resigning, so that Gov. Napolitano may nominate a Demorat.

ATTORNEY GENERAL: U.S. Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick of Massachusetts has been nominated to be the next U.S. Attorney General.

HOMELAND SECURITY: In a strategic move, Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) will be Homeland Security secretary.

Behind the scenes, Feingold aides, especially incoming Chief of Staff Donna Brazile, have been working to push liberal Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) to run for the seat, replacing the somewhat hawkish and occasionally conservative Lieberman with a more mainstream liberal Democrat.

TREASURY: Former OMB Director Alice Rivlin has been nominated in a move that has upset some on the left who pushed for a more activist pick.

INTERIOR: Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar (D-CO) has been named Interior Secretary, foregoing a possible future run for governor or U.S. Senate, for now.

AGRICULTURE: North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner Roger Johnson (D-ND) has been named to this post, but reports suggest Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) was initially offered the position but turned it down, hoping for consideration for a higher up office.

COMMERCE: U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) will serve in this position, allowing Gov. John Baldacci (D-ME) to choose a successor. So far, this likely nets the Democrats an additional 2 Democratic seats, with Sen-designate Cindy McCain serving as an all-but-named Democrat.

LABOR: As expected, U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO) has gotten the job.

HEALTH/HUMAN SERVICES: Former Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT) has been nominated, but Republicans are vowing to block his confirmation, as Gov. Dean is promising a "robust change" to American health care.

HOUSING/URBAN DEVELOPMENT: National Urban League CEO and former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial has been nominated to this post.

TRANSPORTATION:  Gov. Gary Locke (D-WA) has been named to this post.

EDUCATION: Inez Tenenbaum, the former South Carolina Superintendent for Education and failed Senate candidate in 2004.

ENERGY: Former Vice President Al Gore will serve as Education Secretary under assurances to the Feingold-Shaheen team that he will not "go rogue."

VETERANS AFFAIRS: Former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA) will serve.

2004 Iowa Caucuses flashback

It took three hours to call the caucuses that night. Sen. Russ Feingold, who just two weeks before Caucus night was in a distant third place to Sens. Kerry and Edwards came from on top to win the race with 33% of the vote, to John Kerry who got 31% and Howard Dean who got 12%.

NEXT: Confirmations and flashback to the VP search!

[Heisenberg]

Quick question: If Ken Salazar is still Colorado's Attorney General, who won the 2004 Colorado Senate election in this timeline?

[Progressive]

Quick question: If Ken Salazar is still Colorado's Attorney General, who won the 2004 Colorado Senate election in this timeline?

You're right, sorry about that.

Federico Peña, former Denver mayor and Clinton admin. Energy Secretary was elected to the Senate in 2004.

[Progressive]

2005

Withdrawal from Iraq; Discord in the Cabinet

Withdrawal from Iraq

By the end of 2005, virtually all American combat forces had withdrawn from Iraq, though combat forces were still conducting strategic operations in Afghanistan.

President Feingold, with the assistance of Secretary Clinton and Secretary McCain, established no-fly-zones in airspace throughout the mideast as part of a regional pact that allowed for a safe withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

Health Care Reform

President Feingold tasked Vice President Shaheen and Secretary Dean with creating a health care reform package by the end of the president's first term. Secretary Dean urged the administration to consider single payer health care services, and even penned an op-ed in The New York Times insisting that the American public give single payer a chance. Chief of Staff Donna Brazile stormed into Dean's office that same day urging him to stand down from calling the shots about the overall directions of the health care reform bill.

Since the controversial op-ed piece, Vice President Shaheen has taken a more public role on garnering national support for a forthcoming health care reform package.

Meanwhile, the Senate and House have passed a veterans health services bill called HealthServe, which essentially extends Medicare and pharmaceutical insurance coverage to all veterans and people currently enlisted in the military, as well as their immediate family. Secretary Dean lobbied, successfully, for a multi-billion dollar federal national health service that will first extend its services to people eligible for coverage under HealthServe.

State of Politics

President Feingold began his term with a 71% approval rating, and ended 2005 with a 62% approval rating. The withdrawal from Iraq was largely successful, and polls show that 75% of Americans support some version of health care reform.

Nonetheless, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R) insists he will fight any attempt at "creating socialized medicine."

Flashback to 2004 - Veepstakes

President Feingold considered the following people in the order they finished in the Veepstakes!
- Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)* WINNER*
- Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA)
- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
- Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)
- Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) 
- Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN)
- Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)
- Former EPA Adminsitrator and Gov. Christine Todd Whitman (R-NJ)
- Gen. Wes Clark (D-OK)
- Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
- Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC)
- Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA)
- Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO)
- Former Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT)
- Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
- Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

RUMORS: There were abundant rumors that then Sen. Feingold first offered the position to Gov. Napolitano who did not accept because she did not think she had enough experience, and then to former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman (R-NJ), before offering the slot to then Gov. Shaheen.

[NeverAgain]

Wonderful TL. Very wonderful to see a President Feingold.

[Progressive]

Wonderful TL. Very wonderful to see a President Feingold.

Thanks!

[Progressive]

2006

Paranoia and the Presidency?

The Impending Great Recession

On an early morning in January 2006, Treasury Secretary Alice Rivlin summoned her deputies and contacted Chief Strategist Wes Clark and Senior Advisor John Podesta demanding a meeting with President Feingold.

"I'm worried about the housing situation," said Rivlin to Clark and Pedestal. "These sub-prime guys are firing people left and right. They're spooked. We've got millions of people relying on their stability."

Secretary Rivlin presented an emergency report prepared by top economists in her office suggesting that home sales will continue to drop and "careless mortgage underwriting" could lead to a greater housing crisis.

"I don't buy it," remarked Podesta. But Wes Clark was spooked and promised to talk to President Feingold and Vice President Shaheen who urged a cabinet meeting to discuss potential options.

Home Ownership and Lender Safety Act and the Smart Investment Safe Future Act

In mid-2006, among signs of economic sluggishness, House Democrats behind Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democrats behind Tom Daschle united behind legislation designed at preventing dangerous sub-prime mortgage practices, and, created a stimulus package aimed at creating direct investment for infrastructure projects, among other things.

Republicans in the House and Senate vehemently opposed the bill. "We should not be picking winners and losers in the economy," said Senator Bill Frist. "The paranoid president wants to emulate Soviet-style economic planning." The bill was defeated by filibuster, but, President Feingold created executive orders to try and stop the impending economic crisis.

State of Politics



Senator Cindy McCain has officially caucused with the Democrats and will register as a Democrat. At a town hall meeting in Tucson, Arizona, the senator said, "I have not left the Republican Party. The party left me. Now, I won't run again this year for a full time. But you bet I'll serve the remainder of this year fighting as hard as I can to tackle the economic crisis that predatory lenders have gotten us into!"

RECAP OF 2005:



Gov. John Baldacci (D-ME)  appointed himself to serve outgoing Sen. Olympia Snowe's senate seat.



Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) appointed Lt. Gov. Mary Donahue (R-NY) to the Senate to replace Sec. of State Hillary Clinton. Donahue has vowed to run for a full term in 2006.

NEXT: 2006 Midterm Elections.

Generic ballot poll: 47% Democrats - 46% Republicans

[RC (a la Frémont)]

Just from reading about his cabinet, It would seem as if Feingold would unite the two parties.

[Progressive]

Just from reading about his cabinet, It would seem as if Feingold would unite the two parties.

Yep. Generic ballot reflects that. We'll see what happens during 2006 Midterms

[Progressive]

2006 Midterm Election

The Liberal Roar Reigns

NOTABLE U.S. SENATE RACES

Arizona
Jon Kyl*  (R)           52.0%
Jim Pederson (D)     46.9%

Arizona Special
Janet Napolitano (D)  50.0%
J.D. Hayworth (R)          48.1%

Connecticut
Rosa DeLauro (D)      45.1%
Joe Lieberman* (I)         44.1%
NOTE: Vice President Shaheen actually campaigned for Lieberman in the primary (in an effort to prevent Democratic discord, but DeLauro beat Lieberman handily 54% to 46% in the primary).

Maine
John Baldacci* (D)     59.6%
Paul LePage (R)             38.7%

Maryland
Ben Cardin  (D)         54.6%
Michael Steele (R)          44.1%

Missouri
Claire McCaskill (D)    50.3% +1 D
Jim Talent* (R)               48.5%

Montana
Jon Tester (D)         49.8% +1 D
Conrad Burns* (R)       49.6%

Nevada
John Ensign* (R)     53.0%
Jack Carter (D)            45.0%

New York Special
Carolyn McCarthy (D)  56.0% +1 D
Mary Donahue* (R)         41.1%

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)      55.0% +1 D
Mike DeWine* (R)            42.6%

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D)             54.6% +1 D
Rick Santorum* (R)          43.3%

Rhode Island
Lincoln Chafee* (I)       45.1% +1 I
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)   40.5%

Virginia
Jim Webb (D)           49.9% +1D
George Allen* (R)         49.0%

Senate makeup 56D-43R-1I (Chafee has not decided who he'll caucus with yet, but Sanders will with Dems)
House makeup  233-202

Senate Leader Tom Daschle (D)
House Leader Nancy Pelosi (D)

Aftermath

In a fascinating move, voters punished the Republican Party twice. Pundits explain that voters punished Congressional Republicans for failing to heed Feingold administration advice about the impending global recession. With clear signs of economic hardship on the horizon, voters wanted to equip President Feingold with the tools needed to secure legislative victories in Congress.

But the GOP is waiting for 2008 to launch its full political assault on the Feingold administration's shortcomings, including its failure to implement meaningful health care reform or stabilize the global terror stage since taking office in January 2005.

UP NEXT: 2007 roundup + 2008 presidential race begins

[Progressive]

2007 GOP PRESIDENTIAL RACE UPDATE

Here's an interim update on the state of the 2008 presidential race with a focus on the looming Republican primary.

The GOP has adopted an early state schedule as follows:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/republicanprimaries/index.html

Formed an exploratory committee

- Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
- Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC)
- Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
- Former Gov. George Pataki (R-NY)

Thought to be actively considering

- Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)
- Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN)
- Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)
- Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)
- Former Sec. Tom Ridge (R-PA)

Draft Committee + Active Coaxing

- Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS)
- Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R-CA)
- U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA)
- U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-SD)

Declined

- Gen. David Petraeus
- Gen. Colin Powell
- Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
- Sen. John Sununu (R-NH)
- U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

EARLY POLLING (NATIONAL)

Giuliani 21%, Thompson 10%, Hutchison 6%, Dole 4%, Romney 4%, Ridge 3%, Huckabee 2%, Paul 2%, Pataki 1%, 15% other, 32% undecided

[Progressive]

2008 GOP PRESIDENTIAL RACE UPDATE

FINAL GOP CANDIDATE LIST BEFORE IOWA CAUCUSES

GOP Candidates
- Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC)
- Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
- Former Gov. George Pataki (R-NY)
- Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)
- Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN)
- Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)

The Adminstration Primer

Throughout much of 2007, President Feingold's approval rating hovered above 50%. Just before the Iowa Caucuses, President Feingold enjoyed a 51% approval rating and a 46% disapproval rating. He lost much of his political capital on pushing through Congress a law that essentially nationalized the U.S. mortgage industry. Economists largely credit the Feingold administration for preventing the most damaging effects a global economic crisis, but the economy still fell into a slump. Further, Republicans argued that the Feingold administration's concern about a housing bubble burst was "mere paranoia."

In addition to the mortgage nationalization program, the Feingold administration created a national service program under the establishment of a national university system. By the end of 2007, nearly 450,000 Americans were enrolled in some capacity in the national university program, earning free tuition credits through community service.

The national unemployment rate was 5.0%.

The GOP Primary Primer

After former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney ended White House speculation by declining a bid, Rudy Giuliani emerged as the prohibitive frontrunner in the race. Romney is rumored to be offered a job in the Feingold administration. Giuliani has a large national lead over his opponents, but he has failed to coalesce overwhelming support in any of the early primary states.

AGGREGATE OF NATIONAL POLLS (R)

Giuliani 36%, Thompson 15%, Dole 11%, Huckabee 9%, Ron Paul 4%, George Pataki 1%, undecided 24%

AGGREGATE OF HEAD TO HEAD POLLING (GENERAL)

Feingold 50% - Huckabee 34%
Feingold 48% - Giuliani 42%
Feingold 51% - Dole 36%
Feingold 50% - Thompson 40%
Feingold 54% - Paul 33%
Feingold 51% - Pataki 31%

AGGREGATE OF IOWA POLLING (R)

30% Thompson, 25% Huckabee, 18% Giuliani, 9% Dole, 3% Paul, 1% Pataki, undecided 14%

AGGREGATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLING (R)

30% Giuliani, 20% Thomspon, 10% Dole, 10% Paul, 5% Pataki, 5% Huckabee, 20% undecided

[Higgs]

Wow that cabinet is disgusting, nice TL though.