The blue wall
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Author Topic: The blue wall  (Read 1215 times)
The Arizonan
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« on: January 02, 2017, 10:35:28 PM »

I think that there really is a (smaller) blue wall, but it consists of Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington state, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington, D.C.

What do you guys think?
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2017, 10:36:59 PM »

MN is clearly not part of any wall. The rest seem about right, though if Trump governs moderately he could flip some of the northeastern ones.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2017, 12:25:18 AM »

The 'blue wall' exists until it doesn't.
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Ljube
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« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2017, 01:11:11 AM »

I think that there really is a (smaller) blue wall, but it consists of Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington state, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington, D.C.

What do you guys think?


There is a smaller blue wall, but it does not include Minnesota, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2017, 02:19:42 AM »

I think that there really is a (smaller) blue wall, but it consists of Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington state, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington, D.C.

What do you guys think?


There is a smaller blue wall, but it does not include Minnesota, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island.


I think CT and DE are solid D in presidential elections. RI and NJ I think would be winnable for a popular Trump.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2017, 09:30:41 AM »

I really don't think there is any wall anymore for either side....
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Figueira
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« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2017, 09:38:37 AM »

Minnesota is definitely not part of it. Even Oregon is a little iffy. New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware are only flipping if it's a landslide. I don't think Rhode Island can flip.

Only place I'd add is Maine's 1st CD.

At that point though, the concept is small enough that it's pointless.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2017, 09:49:55 AM »

The list seems about right, but I’m unsure about MN. It was pretty close this time, but you could argue that it hold even in a bad year for Dems. Nevertheless, if the Trumpster or any other GOPer were to win the PV next time, MN could easily flip.
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AGA
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« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2017, 09:57:18 AM »

States/districts that we know would most likely stay with the Democrats in a 10-point Republican landslide. The light states could flip depending on the candidates.



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Figueira
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« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2017, 10:10:16 AM »

States/districts that we know would most likely stay with the Democrats in a 10-point Republican landslide. The light states could flip depending on the candidates.




Agreed except I don't see Rhode Island, Maine's 1st, or Washington flipping. Also I could see a scenario where Democrats still win Nevada, Maine, New Hampshire, or Colorado even in a Republican landslide. Even Michigan.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2017, 01:39:37 PM »

There is really no such thing as a wall in politics, just states that lean more and more to one side.

But, if we had to come up with a red/blue wall map, it would look something like this:
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Person Man
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« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2017, 02:09:23 PM »

If Republicans keep winning Arizona, Florida, NC, GA, and at least one of PA,MI, and WI, I would say there is a "red wall"...until it is breached. But there was only talk of  a blue wall to begin with because Obama won at least high single digits in enough states to win.
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2017, 02:12:56 PM »

If Republicans keep winning Arizona, Florida, NC, GA, and at least one of PA,MI, and WI, I would say there is a "red wall"...until it is breached. But there was only talk of  a blue wall to begin with because Obama won at least high single digits in enough states to win. What do we call it will Democeats keep losing because they lose AZ and FL by  2 points though they used to keep winning because Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado kept going D by 6-10 even though at least some polls showed a majority considered voting Republican.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2017, 02:29:25 PM »

MN is clearly not part of any wall. The rest seem about right, though if Trump governs moderately he could flip some of the northeastern ones.

I can't imagine him flipping any states in the northeast aside from Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2017, 04:12:20 PM »

MN is clearly not part of any wall. The rest seem about right, though if Trump governs moderately he could flip some of the northeastern ones.

I can't imagine him flipping any states in the northeast aside from Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine.

NJ, RI and perhaps DE are flippable if he does well (wins by an Obama 2008 margin). Some have argued CT, but I'm not as sure on that one.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2017, 04:58:39 PM »

I can't think of any Democrat who would lose Washington in 2020, short of Kanye. Trump is just a godawful fit for the state.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2017, 07:45:50 PM »

Trump was poorly received in the west in general, therefore the west coast states are the least likely blue ones to flip for him.
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