Most recent election in which counties voted for the opposite party

[Adam Griffin]

Obviously based off of the 2016 presidential election.

Full-size image

[mianfei]

It’s rather problematic to go back only so far as 1972, I feel. So far as I know, the most recent election where no county voted for the opposite party for the last time as of 2017 was 1920 – and I have not checked that one perfectly. There are, too, several in 1916 (e.g. Lawrence County, South Dakota) in Republican strongholds of the Great Basin and Great Plains and in 1912 (e.g. Pulaski County, Kentucky and Hamilton County, Indiana) over parts of Appalachia and areas to the west. 1968 and 1960 have only a few – but with 1960 there are some of special note like Multnomah County, Oregon (anti-Catholicism perhaps), Johnson County, Iowa and on the opposite side several contiguous Gulf Coast counties in Alabama and North Florida.

I wonder if the past few elections (say, since 2000 or 2004) could be grouped together to separate those counties going back before 1972? It’s of more interest to me, and perhaps to many psephologists, to look at the deep roots of modern voting patterns than at relatively recent changes.

Another alternative would be to use different colours, as opposed to merely different shades of purple, to solve both problems of not going back as far as one would desire and of poor colour resolution.

[Vosem]

Leslie County, KY has voted Republican in every single election since its creation in 1878. Going back in time further, the area that is now covered by the county voted Republican in 1876, 1872, 1868, and 1864...but actually gave a plurality of the vote to Southern Democratic candidate John Breckinridge in 1860, so that he was the last candidate of the opposite party to carry the area.

[Adam Griffin]

It’s rather problematic to go back only so far as 1972, I feel. So far as I know, the most recent election where no county voted for the opposite party for the last time as of 2017 was 1920 – and I have not checked that one perfectly. There are, too, several in 1916 (e.g. Lawrence County, South Dakota) in Republican strongholds of the Great Basin and Great Plains and in 1912 (e.g. Pulaski County, Kentucky and Hamilton County, Indiana) over parts of Appalachia and areas to the west. 1968 and 1960 have only a few – but with 1960 there are some of special note like Multnomah County, Oregon (anti-Catholicism perhaps), Johnson County, Iowa and on the opposite side several contiguous Gulf Coast counties in Alabama and North Florida.

I wonder if the past few elections (say, since 2000 or 2004) could be grouped together to separate those counties going back before 1972? It’s of more interest to me, and perhaps to many psephologists, to look at the deep roots of modern voting patterns than at relatively recent changes.

Another alternative would be to use different colours, as opposed to merely different shades of purple, to solve both problems of not going back as far as one would desire and of poor colour resolution.

I did an alternate one that goes back to 1960, but the primary problem one runs into when building such a map is the number of elections/color gradient. As you can see with the 1960 map, even counties that haven't flipped in 30 years don't look as if it's been that long ago (relative in shading to recent flips). If you stretch that back all the way to the 1920s or beyond, then it gets really dicey in terms of discerning when a county actually flipped; you have to create new shades in between the existing ones.

From a pragmatic standpoint, I actually think 1964/1972 are the most ideal points on balance to show this, seeing as how they were the last two true landslide elections for each party. It gives you an idea of which counties are truly the most solid counties for each party in the quasi-modern era, as well as which ones weathered the storm even throughout those elections.

EDIT: Yes, it's possible that select years could be grouped together to avoid such an issue, as well as a range of colors. Aesthetically, though, it'd be less enjoyable I feel.

[mianfei]

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I had a look at the one going back to 1960, and I have mixed feelings. There is certainly essential clarity in distinguishing those counties last won by the opposite party in 1964.

However the alternative table is really confusing with counties coloured 1968. Almost all counties with that year’s colour were actually won by George Wallace. The only exceptions are:

• Kings in California
• Jefferson in Montana
• Mercer in Ohio
• and the four Texas counties of Blanco, Nacogdoches, Rockwall and Scurry

There seem to be bad errors as well: for a start in Nevada, Lyon and Churchill Counties were last won by the Democrats in 1940, and Douglas County, Nevada last voted Democratic in 1936. Storey County, where Perot gained a small plurality in 1992, last voted Democrat in 1976. Moreover, my suggestion in combining counties that have changed over the past few elections would lessen the need for difficult-to-read colours.

A possible alternative would be to group them by candidate, though this would separate the parties.

[Adam Griffin]

However the alternative table is really confusing with counties coloured 1968. Almost all counties with that year’s colour were actually won by George Wallace: Kings in California and Jefferson in Montana are the solitary exceptions.

There seem to be bad errors as well: for a start in Nevada, Lyon and Churchill Counties were last won by the Democrats in 1940, and Douglas County, Nevada last voted Democratic in 1936. Storey County, where Perot gained a small plurality in 1992, last voted Democrat in 1976. Moreover, my suggestion in combining counties that have changed over the past few elections would lessen the need for difficult-to-read colours.

A possible alternative would be to group them by candidate, though this would separate the parties.

I made a typo initially that I noticed, but never corrected: the map should really say "Most Recent Election in Which County Voted for a Different Party". Being stuck in the two-party mindset, I failed to remember that there were going to be counties throughout recent elections that did not vote for either major party when I started. If any of those specific counties you noticed are not covered by this, I'll correct them. I'm actually concerned there might be some mistakes in VA - particularly in the 1960s.