Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Poirot]

ON in second (so yes must be the orphan PQ vote helping ON)

[Hatman 🍁]

QS voted to have talks of merge with QS yes. The PQ riding president chose to vote ON since the QS agreement is not happening so PQ voters might not vote QS or stay home or do as he is doing and vote ON.

CAQ is weak in Montreal and especially in a leftist area so I don't think it's a surprise if they do badly.

I know, but they are lower than what they got in the last election. Though this is very common in by-elections for "third parties" to do poorly.

[Poirot]

CAQ got 8.7% in last general election. They are at about 7% right now. I don't consider it much of a difference. Even with higher result provincially CAQ possibly will not rise more here. 

[Poirot]

Seems the interesting thing is battle for second. The PLQ vote is much lower than in the election.

[Poirot]

At half way, QS at 68%. About 20 votes difference between ON and PLQ for second.

[Poirot]

PLQ in second with about 40 vote lead.

Bloc Pot has more votes than conservative party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results
QS: 69.2% (+18.2%)
PLQ: 8.9% (-8.9%)
ON: 7.9% (+6.7%)
CAQ: 6.7% (-2.0%)
PVQ: 4.6%
Others: 2.7%

Turnout 32.7%

2 Party Swing: 13.6% (PLQ to QS)

[136or142]

Poor GND, not one person here referred to him by his full name: Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_Nadeau-Dubois

[RogueBeaver]

Ontarians, will Dippers or Tories win the Soo tomorrow? I assume Dippers.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontarians, will Dippers or Tories win the Soo tomorrow? I assume Dippers.

I haven't heard any rumblings from NDP circles, so I suspect silence means they don't think they'll win it.

Not sure if the Liberal rebounding is true or not, but they're making a bunch of left wing promises; not sure if any of it has to do with the by-election, but perhaps they think they have an outside shot of winning it?

Sault Ste. Marie is one of those ridings where individual candidacy matters a lot, so you can't just extrapolate from past election results.

[RogueBeaver]

Rebounding in Kouvalis' poll or the riding? Forum still shows the usual Tory lead.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rebounding in Kouvalis' poll or the riding? Forum still shows the usual Tory lead.

The province-wide poll by Campaign Research.

[toaster]

Sault Ste Marie, federally, was one of the only ridings (if not the only?) where an NDP incumbent lost during the big orange wave of Jack Layton that put them into opposition.  Trends, like was mentioned previously, don't really matter here.  I do hear that the NDP candidate is the most well liked.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sault Ste Marie, federally, was one of the only ridings (if not the only?) where an NDP incumbent lost during the big orange wave of Jack Layton that put them into opposition.  Trends, like was mentioned previously, don't really matter here.  I do hear that the NDP candidate is the most well liked.

It was not the only one, the NDP also lost Elmwood-Transcona in 2011.

[VPH]

Sault Ste Marie, federally, was one of the only ridings (if not the only?) where an NDP incumbent lost during the big orange wave of Jack Layton that put them into opposition.  Trends, like was mentioned previously, don't really matter here.  I do hear that the NDP candidate is the most well liked.

What is the riding like in terms of demographics, socioeconomic status, etc?

[RogueBeaver]

Star: Grits sound pessimistic, Brown downplaying expectations, Horwath sounds optimistic.

[King of Kensington]

Sault Ste Marie, federally, was one of the only ridings (if not the only?) where an NDP incumbent lost during the big orange wave of Jack Layton that put them into opposition.  Trends, like was mentioned previously, don't really matter here.  I do hear that the NDP candidate is the most well liked.

What is the riding like in terms of demographics, socioeconomic status, etc?

Very working class city.  Large Italian Canadian population.

[King of Kensington]

Honesty I have no clue what'll happen there.  The Soo often defies the general trend.

[lilTommy]

Honesty I have no clue what'll happen there.  The Soo often defies the general trend.

Yup, even provincially... back in 95, when the ONDP got crushed, SSM saw an increase in vote for the ONDP.
Fingers crossed on an ONDP win!

[Hatman 🍁]

Honesty I have no clue what'll happen there.  The Soo often defies the general trend.

Yup, even provincially... back in 95, when the ONDP got crushed, SSM saw an increase in vote for the ONDP.
Fingers crossed on an ONDP win!

And yet, in 1990 when the ONDP formed government, they had a large decrease in vote share!

[Hatman 🍁]

Handy chart:

[RogueBeaver]

Polls close at 9.

[RogueBeaver]

Grits leading right now.

[RogueBeaver]

Close Dipper-Tory race.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Joe Krmpotich - NDP - 861 - 34.9%
Ross Romano - PC - 852 - 34.5%
Debbie Amaroso - LIB - 643 - 26.1%
Kara Flannigan - Green - 55 - 2.2%
Others - 56 - 2.3%