Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)
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  Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)  (Read 65332 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #300 on: July 31, 2017, 03:56:05 PM »

Mea culpa, Hatman. Didn't know about redistribution. In related news, Tories polling at 50% (!!!) in 416?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #301 on: July 31, 2017, 05:25:14 PM »

Mea culpa, Hatman. Didn't know about redistribution. In related news, Tories polling at 50% (!!!) in 416?

No worries; I can be cranky in the morning.

Speaking of the new Toronto Centre riding, I don't think the Tories can win it without Rosedale, so it will be a two-way fight.
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adma
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« Reply #302 on: July 31, 2017, 11:02:02 PM »


Speaking of the new Toronto Centre riding, I don't think the Tories can win it without Rosedale, so it will be a two-way fight.

Or, if the Tories are headed for a clear majority and Horwath continues to have a "Toronto problem", a two-way fight for *second*.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #303 on: July 31, 2017, 11:25:58 PM »

In related news, Tories polling at 50% (!!!) in 416?

After 15 years in power by 2018, I think we can play this for the Ontario Liberals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKO_JRbcC04

Roy Orbison "It's Over"

I don't know what to make of Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown, but he's a huge fan of socialist musician Billy Bragg, so he can't be all bad.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #304 on: August 01, 2017, 07:22:14 PM »

Former Westside-Kelowna MLA Ben Stewart running for Christy Clarks seat (stepped aside for her in 2013)

https://www.google.ca/amp/globalnews.ca/news/3640702/now-that-christys-gone-ben-stewart-wants-his-seat-back/amp/
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #305 on: August 03, 2017, 04:24:14 PM »

Vancouver city council and School Board by-election set for October 14th. All 9 seats are up as the previous BC Liberal government dismissed all 9 trustees last year.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-school-board-byelection-1.4234442
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Lotuslander
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« Reply #306 on: August 03, 2017, 07:06:21 PM »

Vancouver city council and School Board by-election set for October 14th. All 9 seats are up as the previous BC Liberal government dismissed all 9 trustees last year.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-school-board-byelection-1.4234442

Vacant Van City council seat opinion poll from a few days ago by Justason Market Intelligence:

Sample size: n = 400 with decided vote at n = 209;

Methodology: Opt-in online panel;

Poll voting options: Green, NPA, Vision Vancouver and One City; (should have included COPE as well IMHO);

IMHO, most eyebrow-raising factoid arising from the JMI opinion poll was that incumbent Vision Vancouver is in 4th place:



http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=5357
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #307 on: August 10, 2017, 11:03:38 AM »

Swift Current, SK: Wall is retiring from politics.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #308 on: August 12, 2017, 10:44:31 PM »

Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #309 on: August 12, 2017, 10:55:55 PM »

Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.

Was a very marginal Saskatchewan Party seat and usually by-elections don't tend to favour the government, especially considering Wall's approval rating is a lot lower than a year ago so my guess if the NDP will take this.  It will though be interesting what impact the Saskatchewan Party leadership race has.  I believe they will get a bounce in the polls when they choose a new leader, but since the next election isn't until November 2020 doubt they will hold that bounce.  Still too far out to predict who will win then, but even if the Saskatchewan Party does win, it won't be as big a blowout as the last two provincial elections were and even if the NDP wins it will probably be more like the 1999 and 2003 elections as opposed to the 1991 landslide.  It seems rural Saskatchewan is now more or less a lock for parties on the right unlike in the past.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #310 on: August 12, 2017, 11:08:16 PM »

Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.

Was a very marginal Saskatchewan Party seat and usually by-elections don't tend to favour the government, especially considering Wall's approval rating is a lot lower than a year ago so my guess if the NDP will take this.  It will though be interesting what impact the Saskatchewan Party leadership race has.  I believe they will get a bounce in the polls when they choose a new leader, but since the next election isn't until November 2020 doubt they will hold that bounce.  Still too far out to predict who will win then, but even if the Saskatchewan Party does win, it won't be as big a blowout as the last two provincial elections were and even if the NDP wins it will probably be more like the 1999 and 2003 elections as opposed to the 1991 landslide.  It seems rural Saskatchewan is now more or less a lock for parties on the right unlike in the past.

Some polling has showed the NDP tying the Sask party in "rest of Saskatchewan", which includes smaller cities like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and the north, but some rural areas (mainly some small towns, doubt ranchers would ever vote NDP en masse) could voting for the NDP again.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #311 on: August 12, 2017, 11:49:14 PM »

Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.

Was a very marginal Saskatchewan Party seat and usually by-elections don't tend to favour the government, especially considering Wall's approval rating is a lot lower than a year ago so my guess if the NDP will take this.  It will though be interesting what impact the Saskatchewan Party leadership race has.  I believe they will get a bounce in the polls when they choose a new leader, but since the next election isn't until November 2020 doubt they will hold that bounce.  Still too far out to predict who will win then, but even if the Saskatchewan Party does win, it won't be as big a blowout as the last two provincial elections were and even if the NDP wins it will probably be more like the 1999 and 2003 elections as opposed to the 1991 landslide.  It seems rural Saskatchewan is now more or less a lock for parties on the right unlike in the past.

Some polling has showed the NDP tying the Sask party in "rest of Saskatchewan", which includes smaller cities like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and the north, but some rural areas (mainly some small towns, doubt ranchers would ever vote NDP en masse) could voting for the NDP again.

True the cancellation of STC was very unpopular there, although it's been almost 20 years at either the provincial or federal level since the right wasn't running up the margins in rural Saskatchewan thus my skepticism but if the Saskatchewan Party becomes very unpopular in 2020 you could get a scenario like in both Alberta and Manitoba's recent provincial elections where you saw the NDP in Alberta and PCs in Manitoba winning in many ridings they normally would never win although to be fair I suspect they will lose a lot of those next time around even if they win the election (In Alberta that is seeming not too likely but in Manitoba the PCs still have a decent chance at winning but probably not as big a blowout as in 2016).
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lilTommy
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« Reply #312 on: August 16, 2017, 10:58:01 AM »

Another Saskatchewan MLA is retiring, as of 9/1, Kindersley MLA Bill Boyd
He's been around since 91 as a PC MLA, served as party leader till joining the SP in 97.

http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/mobile/kindersley-mla-bill-boyd-to-retire-1.3547214

A right-wing party has held this riding since 78, the Liberals held it from 75-78. The best the NDP managed since then was 34% in 78. In 2016, this was a battle between Boyd the SP MLA and a former SP MLA, the NDp only managed about 7%. 
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #313 on: August 18, 2017, 09:43:51 PM »

Lac-Saint-Jean: LeBel's resignation took effect last week. Desbiens Mayor Nicolas Martel isn't running. Nor is Gilbert Dominique.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #314 on: August 20, 2017, 05:19:30 PM »


Nor is the Bloc candidate of 2015.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #315 on: August 21, 2017, 07:58:10 PM »

Lac-Saint-Jean will be called soon, Grits eager for a flip. I'd expect they will, we only held it because of LeBel in 2015.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #316 on: August 21, 2017, 09:32:24 PM »


I agree the Tories are unlikely to hold this, but the Grits might have a tougher time than many think.  I believe this area voted 67% yes in the 95 referendum so I think the BQ could possibly win here, mind you with the BQ, NDP, and Conservatives all seeming to be irrelevant in Quebec the Liberals just might take it.  In fact if Quebec becomes to Justin Trudeau like it was for his father this could make it very difficult to unseat the Liberals even if the Tories and NDP gain in English Canada.
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Poirot
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« Reply #317 on: August 21, 2017, 10:33:20 PM »

Is it an upset win when you are favoured to win? The opposition parties will not be lead by powerful leaders. I imagine people are not angry at the government and want to vote against it. The Bloc has a low profile, probably doesn't have money, they can,t bring jobs or help realise local projects. Besides the Liberals no other party seems to have a name as potential candidate, unless they are hiding a major star candidate. It looks like mayors of Alma, Dolbeau and Roberval will be behind the Liberal party.

Richard Hébert, mayor of Dolbeau-Mistassini announced he was seeking the Liberal nomination earlier this month. He wants to help the development of his town and region. He wants to find solutions for the forestry industry and its future. He said he was approached by some political and socio-economic players to run. 

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1049258/le-maire-de-dolbeau-mistassini-se-lance-en-politique-federale

It seemed later all the other potential candidates declined to run after that but there is another person seeking the nomination.

Marjolaine Etienne, Innu, former vice-chief of Mashteuiatsh reserve.
http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1051149/marjolaine-etienne-brigue-linvestiture-liberale-dans-lac-saint-jean?fromBeta=true
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #318 on: August 21, 2017, 11:15:26 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2017, 11:22:38 PM by Tintrlvr »


I agree the Tories are unlikely to hold this, but the Grits might have a tougher time than many think.  I believe this area voted 67% yes in the 95 referendum so I think the BQ could possibly win here, mind you with the BQ, NDP, and Conservatives all seeming to be irrelevant in Quebec the Liberals just might take it.  In fact if Quebec becomes to Justin Trudeau like it was for his father this could make it very difficult to unseat the Liberals even if the Tories and NDP gain in English Canada.

I agree. Recent polling in Quebec is somewhat inconsistent but generally would not suggest a Liberal pick-up in an opposition-held seat in Quebec at the moment. I think the Tories are much more likely to retain than the Bloc to threaten, given the Bloc's perennial dysfunction these days, but who knows.

The best poll for the Liberals by far is Abacus's July poll, the Quebec subsample of which had Lib 53, Con 14, NDP 14, BQ 14, which would put the NDP way down from 2015 and the Liberals way up but the Cons and BQ only down slightly. The Liberals would narrowly take the seat on a uniform swing with that result, but only narrowly, and those figures suggest the Liberals are gaining more where the NDP were strong in 2015 than in Conservative-held seats with a strong Bloc history like Lac-Saint-Jean.

Campaign Research's July poll's Quebec subsample had Lib 42, Con 15, NDP 23, BQ 17, which would not be good enough for the Liberals to take the seat on a uniform swing, though they'd be in shouting distance.

Angus Reid's June poll's Quebec subsample had Lib 38, Con 18, NDP 20 (no BQ result reported), which is barely any net swing to the Liberals relative to the Conservatives and leaves the Liberals in third on a uniform swing.

And finally EKOS's June poll's Quebec subsample had Lib 33, Con 20, NDP 16, BQ 16, even worse for the Liberals, actually a swing to the Conservatives and definitely not good enough to win.

Certainly not ruling out a Liberal pick-up but does not seem to be strongly indicated by polling at the moment.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #319 on: August 23, 2017, 07:12:17 PM »

Judy Foote resigning by end of year.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #320 on: August 23, 2017, 07:25:51 PM »


I think it's safe to say the Liberals will hold on to this one. I think it was their best seat in 2015.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #321 on: August 23, 2017, 10:25:29 PM »


I think it's safe to say the Liberals will hold on to this one. I think it was their best seat in 2015.

Fully agree here.  It will though be interesting to see what the shifts are as the Tories and NDP were more or less rock bottom so cannot see them doing any worse so while the Liberals will easily hold this, it may give a sense at what type of shifts have happened since.  I know the Newfoundland provincial Liberal government is quite unpopular although unlike Trudeau they've adopted austerity so not sure how much of an impact that will have.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #322 on: August 24, 2017, 08:01:54 AM »


I think it's safe to say the Liberals will hold on to this one. I think it was their best seat in 2015.

Fully agree here.  It will though be interesting to see what the shifts are as the Tories and NDP were more or less rock bottom so cannot see them doing any worse so while the Liberals will easily hold this, it may give a sense at what type of shifts have happened since.  I know the Newfoundland provincial Liberal government is quite unpopular although unlike Trudeau they've adopted austerity so not sure how much of an impact that will have.

Foote won 81% of the vote... ya i'd say that's a strong mandate
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #323 on: August 28, 2017, 09:04:15 AM »

Lac-Saint-Jean: Grits confident of a pickup.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #324 on: August 28, 2017, 09:44:14 AM »


I think the Liberals have an edge, but the sort of arrogance we are certain to win or Trudeau is loved is the type that long-term runs parties into trouble.  Otherwise never take anything for granted although do agree the Liberals have the advantage.  While Trudeau has a positive approval rating in Quebec and nationally it is not through the roof, I think the Liberal advantage in Quebec is more due to the weakness of the other parties.  Asides from 2011 NDP has not traditionally been strong in Quebec, BQ is in decline despite this historically being one of their strongest ridings, and the Conservatives are largely confined to the Quebec City region.  Provincially the ADQ and CAQ never did very well in the Saguenay
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