Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[RogueBeaver]

Yes but no other federalist party has been durable here long-term since Macdonald. Frankly I don't mind a return to our Fort status.

[RogueBeaver]

Battlefords-Lloydminister: Ritz is expected to announce his resignation soon.

[mileslunn]

Battlefords-Lloydminister: Ritz is expected to announce his resignation soon.

That is generally a pretty safe Conservative riding so would be shocked if they lost it, nonetheless with Wall's popularity having fallen, it might be a bit tighter.

[lilTommy]

Battlefords-Lloydminister: Ritz is expected to announce his resignation soon.

That is generally a pretty safe Conservative riding so would be shocked if they lost it, nonetheless with Wall's popularity having fallen, it might be a bit tighter.

Battlefords-Lloydminister Has been held by a Right wing party since the ridings creation in 1997 (Reform/Alliance/Conseravtive), before that though the Battlefords-Meadow Lake riding which was carved up to create Battlefords-Lloydminister was NDP held.
The NDP still is the main opponent, 2nd placer here but hasn't broken 30% ever'... so ya pretty solid CPC.

[the506]

Louis-Hebert provincial by-election called for October 2.

[Jeppe]

That part of the province is probably very competitive provincially, but the federal NDP is struggling to gain traction here. Half of the Sask NDP provincial supporters here are breaking for the Liberals federally, according to Mainstreet.

[mileslunn]

That part of the province is probably very competitive provincially, but the federal NDP is struggling to gain traction here. Half of the Sask NDP provincial supporters here are breaking for the Liberals federally, according to Mainstreet.

Only the Battlefords are competitive for the NDP provincially.  Lloydminster and the rural portions are solidly Saskatchewan Party.  I believe there are around 4-5 provincial ridings per federal and the others are not competitive.  Even in the 1999 and 2003 provincial elections which the NDP won, this riding would have still gone solidly Saskatchewan Party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Louis-Hebert provincial by-election called for October 2.

Apparently the NPDQ will be contesting it! Will be interesting to see how well they do. For comparison, the federal NDP got about ~10% in 2008, ~40% in 2011 and ~20% in 2015.

[RogueBeaver]

Ritz announced his resignation today. Obhrai's on retirement watch too.

[Jeppe]

That part of the province is probably very competitive provincially, but the federal NDP is struggling to gain traction here. Half of the Sask NDP provincial supporters here are breaking for the Liberals federally, according to Mainstreet.

Only the Battlefords are competitive for the NDP provincially.  Lloydminster and the rural portions are solidly Saskatchewan Party.  I believe there are around 4-5 provincial ridings per federal and the others are not competitive.  Even in the 1999 and 2003 provincial elections which the NDP won, this riding would have still gone solidly Saskatchewan Party.

The NDP is running competitively with the Sask Party in rural Saskatchewan according to polling. There are tons of small towns in that area the Sask NDP could win. Lloydminster is a stretch, but I wouldn't see be surprised to see a tight race provincially in the federal boundaries.

[Hatman 🍁]

Louis-Hebert provincial by-election called for October 2.

Apparently the NPDQ will be contesting it! Will be interesting to see how well they do. For comparison, the federal NDP got about ~10% in 2008, ~40% in 2011 and ~20% in 2015.

They will be running former MP Denis Blanchette, who is the current president of the NPDQ.

[mileslunn]

That part of the province is probably very competitive provincially, but the federal NDP is struggling to gain traction here. Half of the Sask NDP provincial supporters here are breaking for the Liberals federally, according to Mainstreet.

Only the Battlefords are competitive for the NDP provincially.  Lloydminster and the rural portions are solidly Saskatchewan Party.  I believe there are around 4-5 provincial ridings per federal and the others are not competitive.  Even in the 1999 and 2003 provincial elections which the NDP won, this riding would have still gone solidly Saskatchewan Party.

The NDP is running competitively with the Sask Party in rural Saskatchewan according to polling. There are tons of small towns in that area the Sask NDP could win. Lloydminster is a stretch, but I wouldn't see be surprised to see a tight race provincially in the federal boundaries.

That was according to one poll so while possible I am a bit skeptical of rural Saskatchewan swinging heavily to the NDP.  It seems since the late 90s they have more or less abandoned them.  The Angus-reid poll shows it's mainly Regina and Saskatoon that make the NDP competitive and perhaps some support in smaller cities like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert

[DL]

I could easily see the Sask NDP win the provincial riding of The Battlefords - which they held up to 2011...and maybe a couple of rural ridings in the north that have large FN reserves such as Meadow Lake or Batoche or Saskatchewan Rivers....but not the rural parts of this federal riding

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Former MLA Ben Stewart will be the BC Liberal candidate in Kelowana West By-Election.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-liberals-pick-former-mla-ben-stewart-for-kelowna-west-byelection-1.4273626

[mileslunn]

Former MLA Ben Stewart will be the BC Liberal candidate in Kelowana West By-Election.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-liberals-pick-former-mla-ben-stewart-for-kelowna-west-byelection-1.4273626

Interesting.  I would have thought they should have waited until the next leader is chosen in case the next leader is not from caucus.  Still considering the BC Liberals won this by over 30 points, I suspect they will have little difficulty holding it.  Even if the Greens don't put up a candidate, the BC Liberals pretty much always get over 50% here.

[Jeppe]

Weird how we haven't gotten a single Saskatoon Fairview poll, when we got 2 Saskatoon Meewasin by-election polls.

[lilTommy]

Louis-Hebert provincial by-election called for October 2.

Apparently the NPDQ will be contesting it! Will be interesting to see how well they do. For comparison, the federal NDP got about ~10% in 2008, ~40% in 2011 and ~20% in 2015.

They will be running former MP Denis Blanchette, who is the current president of the NPDQ.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201708/08/01-5123011-partielle-dans-louis-hebert-un-premier-test-pour-le-npd-quebec.php

That's fairly high profile for the almost-nothing party eh, but since QS and I believe the Greens are also running candidates, that's really a crowded left, left-of-centre field now. Also, sounds like both QS and NPDQ are going to use orange... i guess if PQ/CAQ can both use blues, it can be done but talk about confusion.

[DL]

Weird how we haven't gotten a single Saskatoon Fairview poll, when we got 2 Saskatoon Meewasin by-election polls.

Probably because Meewasin was considered very competitive and Meili was considered a likely NDP leadership candidate. in contrast the conventional wisdom about Fairview is that it will be a slam dunk pickup for the NDP.

[lilTommy]

Weird how we haven't gotten a single Saskatoon Fairview poll, when we got 2 Saskatoon Meewasin by-election polls.

Ya, no kidding eh. I think because in Meewasin, you had a very high profile NDP candidate in Meili running, might have been a factor in the amount of polling. Fairview was much closer then Meewasin in 2016; a 182 vote (48% vs 45%) difference vs 523 (50% vs 42%)... it could be seen as already in the NDP bag, which is not the best for anyone.

[RogueBeaver]

Louis Hébert: Grit was accused of psychologically harassing 2 women at his business.

Most by-elections in my province since the early 80s.

[RogueBeaver]

L-H: Grits also replacing their candidate. When was the last time something like this happened?

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile of today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/09/saskatoon-fairview-by-election-preview.html

[mileslunn]

My profile of today's by-election: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/09/saskatoon-fairview-by-election-preview.html

I would be quite shocked if the NDP doesn't pick this up.  I think margins will be more the interesting one.  Is it similar to 2007 which is good news for the Saskatchewan Party or is more like 1999 and 2003 which is good news for the NDP.  Off course with both parties choosing a new leader a lot can happen between now and the next election so the close poll numbers could easily swing to one side or another.  Nonetheless with Saskatchewan Party's strong rural base I suspect at worst would be a strong opposition in 2020 while even if the NDP loses, I am pretty sure they will pick up a whole bunch of seats.  Otherwise I suspect the 2003 and 2007 results are the best to use for predicting what could happen.  2011 and 2016 were massive blowouts that don't happen too long just as 1991 was a massive blowout for the NDP which they were unable to maintain beyond that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, the NDP will win it.  The question is, by how much? My guess is 53-42.

[Jeppe]

Yes, the NDP will win it.  The question is, by how much? My guess is 53-42.

My guess is 55-35. If the Sask NDP is pulling over 40% of the vote province-wide, they definitely have to put up large margins in seats like this.