Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Jeppe]

Looks like my initial conservative estimate was too conservative. NDP leading 65-25 with 11/50 reporting.

[mileslunn]

If those numbers hold up, then big night for the NDP and obviously a message to the Saskatchewan Party that some are unhappy.  The NDP will definitely win this, but lets see what the final numbers are.

[Hatman 🍁]

One thing I neglected to mention in my blog post was how good the SP and the Tories are in the advance vote. I think the NDP actually won the election day vote in 2016.

[mileslunn]

One thing I neglected to mention in my blog post was how good the SP and the Tories are in the advance vote. I think the NDP actually won the election day vote in 2016.

Then the predictions others made might close as my understanding is advanced votes usually come last since they take the longest to count.  Noticed that with other parties on the right, any idea why that is?  Interestingly in BC at least absentee ballots tend to favour the NDP.

[mileslunn]

With 25 out of 55 reporting and it now being 64.3% NDP to 26.6% Saskatchewan Party this won't even be close, even if the final polls are a bit closer.  Big NDP win it looks like.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC says there are 1888 advance ballots to count.

[Jeppe]

A lot of the people from out of the province commenting don't understand quite HOW unpopular the Sask Party is right now. I think this by-election should be a sign that the Sask NDP could legitimately contest the Kindersley by-election, especially with Bill Boyd's legal dramas.

Advance voting depends on the constituency, the one where I volunteered for, our NDP candidate won by the advance votes by a slim margin, but some other candidate's election day victories were overturned by the advance votes.

[mileslunn]

A lot of the people from out of the province commenting don't understand quite HOW unpopular the Sask Party is right now. I think this by-election should be a sign that the Sask NDP could legitimately contest the Kindersley by-election, especially with Bill Boyd's legal dramas.

Advance voting depends on the constituency, the one where I volunteered for, our NDP candidate won by the advance votes by a slim margin, but some other candidate's election day victories were overturned by the advance votes.

I know the Saskatchewan Party did take a hit over the last budget, but Wall's approval ratings in the polls I've seen is still around 45% which is a lot lower than it has traditionally been, but compared to other premiers still quite high although somewhat lower than Trudeau's.  I guess Kindersley is possible, but I tend to think the ridings they won in 2003 is probably the one's most likely to flip.

[Jeppe]

A lot of the people from out of the province commenting don't understand quite HOW unpopular the Sask Party is right now. I think this by-election should be a sign that the Sask NDP could legitimately contest the Kindersley by-election, especially with Bill Boyd's legal dramas.

Advance voting depends on the constituency, the one where I volunteered for, our NDP candidate won by the advance votes by a slim margin, but some other candidate's election day victories were overturned by the advance votes.

I know the Saskatchewan Party did take a hit over the last budget, but Wall's approval ratings in the polls I've seen is still around 45% which is a lot lower than it has traditionally been, but compared to other premiers still quite high although somewhat lower than Trudeau's.  I guess Kindersley is possible, but I tend to think the ridings they won in 2003 is probably the one's most likely to flip.

Brad Wall's popularity has always been a bit higher than the party's approval though. He's lifted up the party's popularity by making it the Brad Wall Party, but now his reputation is being tarnished.

[mileslunn]

CBC has now called it for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

I may be from Ontario, but I do not think Kindersley will even be close. The NDP finished third in 2016.

[mileslunn]

Just five polls left, probably the advanced and the two mobile.  Looks like a very good night for the NDP.  Outperformed 2007 and Sask Party so far did slightly worse although maybe will match depending on advanced polls.  NDP also outperformed 2003, but it looks like the Sask Party did as well.  Interestingly enough in 1982, this riding went massively PC, but then swung massively to the NDP with similar numbers in 1986 which the PCs still won.  Granted that was a long time ago so one needs to be careful making comparisons.  But things are looking good for the NDP, while the Saskatchewan Party definitely has their issues although they at least have 3 years to try to turn things around so they do have the luxury of time, but off course things could go either way.

Saskatchewan Green Party 45 1.4%
Vicki Mowat New Democratic Party (N.D.P.) 1887 60.6%
David Prokopchuk P. C. Party of Sask. 93 3.0%
Shah Rukh Saskatchewan Liberal Party 124 4.0%
Cameron Scott Saskatchewan Party 957 30.8%
Rejected Ballots - 6 0.2%

[Jeppe]

I may be from Ontario, but I do not think Kindersley will even be close. The NDP finished third in 2016.

To an independent who was rallying himself as the anti-Sask Party candidate. Granted he was a right-winger, but quite a few NDP votes went to him hoping he might be able to take down Bill Boyd.

[mileslunn]

Final numbers

Taylor Bolin Saskatchewan Green Party 61 1.3%
Vicki Mowat New Democratic Party (N.D.P.) 2759 60.3%
David Prokopchuk P. C. Party of Sask. 123 2.7%
Shah Rukh Saskatchewan Liberal Party 199 4.4%
Cameron Scott Saskatchewan Party 1423 31.1%
Rejected Ballots - 7 0.2%

So definitely a good night for the NDP and while a lost was expected for the Saskatchewan Party the size of the loss has to be worrisome.  It doesn't mean they will lose the next election, that is three years away, but it means they have their work cut out for them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Actual percentages (for some reason Elections SK calculates %s as a pct of total votes cast rather than just valid votes)

NDP: 60.4% (+15.2)
SP: 31.2% (-17.1)
Lib: 4.4% (-0.7)
PC: 2.7%
Grn: 1.3% (-0.1)

Turnout: 35.7% (-14.4%)

Swing: 16.1% (NDP gain from SP) - bigger swing than in Meewasin! Also, this swing if applied province wide would result in a tie in the popular vote.

[mileslunn]

Actual percentages (for some reason Elections SK calculates %s as a pct of total votes cast rather than just valid votes)

NDP: 60.4% (+15.2)
SP: 31.2% (-17.1)
Lib: 4.4% (-0.7)
PC: 2.7%
Grn: 1.3% (-0.1)

Turnout: 35.7% (-14.4%)

Swing: 16.1% (NDP gain from SP) - bigger swing than in Meewasin! Also, this swing if applied province wide would result in a tie in the popular vote.

. Meewasin was also before the austerity budget so I suspect the SP declined further after that.

[Jeppe]

Both NDP candidates have managed to win over the suburban parts of their constituencies, with Vicki Mowat winning all but one poll in Fairview. Polls made it seem like the Saskatoon suburbs were still solidly supporting the Sask Party, but by-elections have indicated a different trend.

It'll be interesting to see how the NDP does in the even wealthier suburban areas of the city, like Stonebridge or Willowgrove, where the Sask Party won most polls with over 60%-70% of the vote. They might be an even tougher nut to crack than the rural areas, seeing as they are least affected by the austerity budget. The suburbanites living in those areas aren't the ones riding the STC or living on social assistance, that's for sure.

Regina's only comparable suburb is in Regina Wascana Plains, a mixed constituency that has Regina's southeastern portions along with some smaller, wealthy towns further east of the city. I do wish there was a by-election in Regina, because the NDP is doing ridiculously well in the city, where I wouldn't be surprised to see the NDP hit 65% or even 70% in some currently Sask-Party held seats. Saskatoon's swings have been dramatic, but polls have indicated the NDP winning by landslide margins in Regina, even more than in Saskatoon.

Overall, the Sask NDP's shot at forming government relies on winning a few rural seats, outside of the larger and medium sized cities. Some rural seats like Batoche and Saskatchewan Rivers, which have large reserve populations, are ripe for picking, and they'll be the ones deciding who forms government in 2020. To do that, they need to win some small towns, because ranchers and farmers are likely never going to vote for the NDP en masse, so they need to win over the economically downtrodden Saskatchewanians living in the province's smaller population centres if they want to win in those rural seats. Kindersley will be an interesting test to see if they can win in small towns. They don't have to win the by-election, it'd be a miracle if they actually did, but they have to prove they can do well in some small towns, if they want to form government in 2020.

[Holmes]

Yup, that's a swing.

[136or142]

Both NDP candidates have managed to win over the suburban parts of their constituencies, with Vicki Mowat winning all but one poll in Fairview. Polls made it seem like the Saskatoon suburbs were still solidly supporting the Sask Party, but by-elections have indicated a different trend.

It'll be interesting to see how the NDP does in the even wealthier suburban areas of the city, like Stonebridge or Willowgrove, where the Sask Party won most polls with over 60%-70% of the vote. They might be an even tougher nut to crack than the rural areas, seeing as they are least affected by the austerity budget. The suburbanites living in those areas aren't the ones riding the STC or living on social assistance, that's for sure.

Regina's only comparable suburb is in Regina Wascana Plains, a mixed constituency that has Regina's southeastern portions along with some smaller, wealthy towns further east of the city. I do wish there was a by-election in Regina, because the NDP is doing ridiculously well in the city, where I wouldn't be surprised to see the NDP hit 65% or even 70% in some currently Sask-Party held seats. Saskatoon's swings have been dramatic, but polls have indicated the NDP winning by landslide margins in Regina, even more than in Saskatoon.

Overall, the Sask NDP's shot at forming government relies on winning a few rural seats, outside of the larger and medium sized cities. Some rural seats like Batoche and Saskatchewan Rivers, which have large reserve populations, are ripe for picking, and they'll be the ones deciding who forms government in 2020. To do that, they need to win some small towns, because ranchers and farmers are likely never going to vote for the NDP en masse, so they need to win over the economically downtrodden Saskatchewanians living in the province's smaller population centres if they want to win in those rural seats. Kindersley will be an interesting test to see if they can win in small towns. They don't have to win the by-election, it'd be a miracle if they actually did, but they have to prove they can do well in some small towns, if they want to form government in 2020.

Indeed, the popularity of Brad Wall masked the clearly very large urban (and north)/rural divide in Saskatchewan.

In the 2016 election, the NDP did better than in 2011 in the urban ridings but did even worse in the rural ridings.  In the northern rural ridings where the NDP was relatively strong in 2011, in most of them in 2016 they did no better than they did in the rural ridings in the rest of the province.

Again, these are the northern rural ridings, as opposed to the two ridings in Northern Saskatchewan where the NDP dominates.

[DC Al Fine]

Some rural seats like Batoche and Saskatchewan Rivers, which have large reserve populations, are ripe for picking, and they'll be the ones deciding who forms government in 2020.

I don't understand that argument. Seats with a high native population seem less swingable than more white seats to me. It's like arguing that Mississippi could be a Democratic pickup. Sure the NDP have a high floor, but the non-reserve polls are voting 70-80% Saskatchewan Party.

[lilTommy]

Some rural seats like Batoche and Saskatchewan Rivers, which have large reserve populations, are ripe for picking, and they'll be the ones deciding who forms government in 2020.

I don't understand that argument. Seats with a high native population seem less swingable than more white seats to me. It's like arguing that Mississippi could be a Democratic pickup. Sure the NDP have a high floor, but the non-reserve polls are voting 70-80% Saskatchewan Party.

Really Good Night for the NDP, I thought maybe mid-50's; 55% or so, but 60%! that's closer to the 95' vote in the old riding (the NDP won 64% then)
IF there is a similar swing province-wide, 16% or so, which the last provincewide poll showed is within the realm of possibilities. Those previous 60-70% SP polls are now more like 40-50%, which would be outweighed by an even stronger (likely) vote in already NDP held polls. So Sask Rivers, Meadow Lake, Batoche, like what was previously mentioned 2003 type ridings. Puts Saskatoon suburban ridings like Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods definitely in the NDP column, but also Northwest and Silverspring-Sutherland become much more winnable.

Kindersley... still a huge long shot. Even if we see another 16% swing, AND all the 17% who voted for the Indie vote for the NDP, if my rough math is right, that is still SP 51% NDP 40%.  Not sure what voter turn out was, but a huge number of non-voters would have to come out to vote NDP and we'd have to have a bigger swing to the NDP for them to win. Its not impossible, but it's unlikely.
Momentum is with the NDP, they'd be foolish not to capitalize and try and attract a "star" (as best they can) for Kindersley. If there is huge discontent/backlash in Rural Sask maybe we could see this flip... stranger things have happened.

[Jeppe]

Some rural seats like Batoche and Saskatchewan Rivers, which have large reserve populations, are ripe for picking, and they'll be the ones deciding who forms government in 2020.

I don't understand that argument. Seats with a high native population seem less swingable than more white seats to me. It's like arguing that Mississippi could be a Democratic pickup. Sure the NDP have a high floor, but the non-reserve polls are voting 70-80% Saskatchewan Party.

The northern rural ridings have a history of supporting the NDP. It's like whites in the Midwest vs the South, white rural people in southern Saskatchewan are more conservative, which is why all of the only few ridings that have never voted for the NDP are all in southern Saskatchewan.

Meanwhile the Sask NDP was winning a good chunk of northern Saskatchewan's rural white voters back in 2007. They' definitely swung to the Sask Party in 2011 and 2016, but if the Sask NDP starts making gains with rural voters, it's definitely be most pronounced amongst  y ones that have historically supported them, the ones concentrated in the northern part of the province.

Not too long ago, there were quite a few NDP supporting towns. It's not implausible for it to happen again, especially in Saskatchewan. The Sask NDP is being led by a 29 year old woman first elected to office last year, and they still won the by-election dramatically with a huge swing against Brad Wall. It won't be pretty once the tables are turned in a few months, with a more popular NDP leader and an unpopular and unknown Sask Party leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:



No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

[lilTommy]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:



No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

[Hatman 🍁]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:



No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

Yes, uniform swing.

Interestingly, the lowest hanging fruit rural riding for the NDP is Batoche, which hasn't gone NDP since 1995. It appears to have a high FN population, and less resource dependent as ridings in the NW like Meadow Lake which saw a huge swing to the SP in 2016.