Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Jeppe]

Saskatoon showed pretty mild swings compared to Regina and rest of Saskatchewan in polling, so that's one thing to take into account. Saskatoon's swing to the NDP has been the smallest, compared to Regina and the rest of Saskatchewan. If a by-election happened in say, Regina Coronation Park, then we'd probably have seen some crazy 20+ point swings, that would indicate the NDP winning the popular vote province-wide.

The Sask Party is likely going to have an even tougher time in the years ahead, without Brad Wall. It's hard to understate exactly how important Brad Wall has been to the Sask Party brand. He's been the face of the party for a generation now, and the people running to replace him are all unknowns.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well this is all very pleasant

As for the issue of swings, don't forget that if there is a large swing then they tend to be highest where there is most room to swing. Decent chance that even if Regina swings more than Saskatoon that Regina swings by less than the rural parts of the province.

[lilTommy]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:



No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

Yes, uniform swing.

Interestingly, the lowest hanging fruit rural riding for the NDP is Batoche, which hasn't gone NDP since 1995. It appears to have a high FN population, and less resource dependent as ridings in the NW like Meadow Lake which saw a huge swing to the SP in 2016.

Another interesting one, going by the colour variants, is Last Mountain-Touchwood, north of Regina. Looks surprisingly competitive.

[Hatman 🍁]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:



No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

Yes, uniform swing.

Interestingly, the lowest hanging fruit rural riding for the NDP is Batoche, which hasn't gone NDP since 1995. It appears to have a high FN population, and less resource dependent as ridings in the NW like Meadow Lake which saw a huge swing to the SP in 2016.

Another interesting one, going by the colour variants, is Last Mountain-Touchwood, north of Regina. Looks surprisingly competitive.

That's more to do with the fact that the PC leader (and former MLA) ran there in 2016 and won 10% of the vote. Unless he runs again, you can just add that 10% to the SP, making the riding uncompetative.

[136or142]

We saw a big swing yesterday, but it wouldn't be enough to win the election for the NDP:

No rural ridings drop, and there are still a few urban holdouts for the Sask Party.

Was this a uniform swing? what numbers did you use?
Looking a lot more like 2003 though, your seeing the smaller cities start to swing NDP (The Battlefords, Moose Jaw. I was right in that Saskaton, Westview, Eastview and Churchill-Wildwoods go NDP. For the NDP to win low-hanging rural ridings, the swing is going to have to be closer to 20% then eh.

Yes, uniform swing.

Interestingly, the lowest hanging fruit rural riding for the NDP is Batoche, which hasn't gone NDP since 1995. It appears to have a high FN population, and less resource dependent as ridings in the NW like Meadow Lake which saw a huge swing to the SP in 2016.

Another interesting one, going by the colour variants, is Last Mountain-Touchwood, north of Regina. Looks surprisingly competitive.

Well, touchwood on that happening.  I hope you are right, but I think you are experiencing irrational exuberance. 

[adma]

How about Swift Current?  After all, it's been held by the NDP before (most recently during the 1991-99 Romanow majority years).  And even if they don't win, in Brad Wall's absence the NDP's almost certain to have one of its highest swings here, if not *the* highest swing...

[mileslunn]

How about Swift Current?  After all, it's been held by the NDP before (most recently during the 1991-99 Romanow majority years).  And even if they don't win, in Brad Wall's absence the NDP's almost certain to have one of its highest swings here, if not *the* highest swing...

It's like much of rural Southern Saskatchewan trended heavily Saskatchewan Party although agree without Brad Wall will be much closer.  I believe the Tories federally though got over 60% there so a lot will depend on whether the party plunges further or rebounds.

[Jeppe]

How about Swift Current?  After all, it's been held by the NDP before (most recently during the 1991-99 Romanow majority years).  And even if they don't win, in Brad Wall's absence the NDP's almost certain to have one of its highest swings here, if not *the* highest swing...

Swift Current is an interesting one because it is an entirely urban constituency. I've lived there before and it's not exactly the most well off place in the province, and a lot of people automatically just voted for Brad Wall because he was the premier and it was his hometown, the place where he'd lived his entire life. The highest swings will probably happen in Regina though, since they're going from losing the city by a few points to winning 2 to 1.

[DC Al Fine]

How about Swift Current?  After all, it's been held by the NDP before (most recently during the 1991-99 Romanow majority years).  And even if they don't win, in Brad Wall's absence the NDP's almost certain to have one of its highest swings here, if not *the* highest swing...

It's like much of rural Southern Saskatchewan trended heavily Saskatchewan Party although agree without Brad Wall will be much closer.  I believe the Tories federally though got over 60% there so a lot will depend on whether the party plunges further or rebounds.

Even comparing 2015 to 2004, the Tories are up 5-10% in Swift Current.  It's definitely harder for the NDP to do well there than in 1995.

[adma]

Even comparing 2015 to 2004, the Tories are up 5-10% in Swift Current.  It's definitely harder for the NDP to do well there than in 1995.

In this case especially, highest swing does not necessarily mean winning swing.  And it also depends on the respective candidates on offer.

As far as federal-result comparisons go, remember that a Con-ward "push effect" is in place for Cypress Hills-Grasslands that wouldn't be so marked for a provincial-style Swift Current standalone.

[RogueBeaver]

RIP: Scarborough-Agincourt Grit MP Arnold Chan has died of cancer at 50.

[MAINEiac4434]

RIP: Scarborough-Agincourt Grit MP Arnold Chan has died of cancer at 50.

Extremely sad. RIP.

[Jeppe]

Scarborough Agincourt could be a competitive by-election, it was somewhat close for a GTA seat, and the huge Chinese community could turn against the Liberal party because of tax changes and marijuana legalization.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, we did see a 6 point swing in the Markham-Thornhill by-election, and it is only about 1/3 Chinese. Agincourt is nearly half Chinese, and the same swing would put the Tories within 3 points of the Liberals there.

[DC Al Fine]

Hmm, we did see a 6 point swing in the Markham-Thornhill by-election, and it is only about 1/3 Chinese. Agincourt is nearly half Chinese, and the same swing would put the Tories within 3 points of the Liberals there.

Polls in Ontario more or less match the 2015 result, so it will be a question of how motivated the Tory and Liberal voters are, and how much Toronto-area Chinese people have trended CPC. Turnout spiked last election, and those voters likely favoured Trudeau. I'm not so sure those folks will show up for a by-election.

All things considered, there's still a sizeable lead for the Tories to overcome, and the polls haven't moved much from 2015. I say the Liberals narrowly hold on to the seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls will not pick up on swings among ethnic communities, though. They don't respond to polls as much as the general public, and even if they did, you wouldn't see a big shift in province-wide polling.

[Jeppe]

Polls will not pick up on swings among ethnic communities, though. They don't respond to polls as much as the general public, and even if they did, you wouldn't see a big shift in province-wide polling.

I imagine legalization is really going to hurt the Liberals in this riding. There's probably no stronger anti-drug demographic in Canada.

[DC Al Fine]

Polls will not pick up on swings among ethnic communities, though. They don't respond to polls as much as the general public, and even if they did, you wouldn't see a big shift in province-wide polling.

Sure. I just meant there will likely be little to no swing in the white vote to help put the Tories over the top.

Also, I just noticed that about 15% of the riding is South Asian. Have they trended any further away form the Tories since 2015? If so that might provide some headwinds for them.

[Jeppe]

Polls will not pick up on swings among ethnic communities, though. They don't respond to polls as much as the general public, and even if they did, you wouldn't see a big shift in province-wide polling.

Sure. I just meant there will likely be little to no swing in the white vote to help put the Tories over the top.

Also, I just noticed that about 15% of the riding is South Asian. Have they trended any further away form the Tories since 2015? If so that might provide some headwinds for them.

If Singh wins the NDP leadership race, they'll probably swing hard to the NDP. My assumption would be that they voted Liberal in 2015, so the Liberals could really be in hot water in this by-election.

[RogueBeaver]

Lac-Saint-Jean and Sturgeon River-Parkland set for Oct. 23.

[mileslunn]

Lac-Saint-Jean and Sturgeon River-Parkland set for Oct. 23.

Sturgeon River-Parkland should be an easy Conservative hold.  Lac Saint Jean will be the more interesting.  With the Liberals well ahead in Quebec and a strong candidate they have an excellent chance at picking it up, mind you this is probably one of the least Liberal friendly ridings in Quebec.  I believe in 1995, this riding voted 2/3 Yes.  NDP and BQ could theoretically be competitive, but they both seem in fairly bad shape in Quebec and for the Tories this was more a Lebel riding than Conservative one as in the last election they did quite poorly in all the neighbouring ridings.  Their support is more in around Quebec City where they still might be competitive, but it seems any riding more than 100km outside Quebec City is probably off limits for them which would include Lac Saint Jean.

Of the ones not called, Battlefords-Lloydminster should be an easy Tory hold while Bonavista-Trinity-Burin easy Liberal hold.  Scarborough-Agincourt leans Liberals and if they still where they are in the polls they are fine, but if things tighten then there is an outside chance the Tories could pull off an upset.  In 2011 it stayed Liberal more due to Jim Karygiannis and had he not run I think the Tories would have won it, although lost it in 2015.  Likewise provincially I could definitely see Scarborough-Agincourt going PC if the current numbers hold.

[RogueBeaver]

Singh says he's open to Scarborough advice, but prefers Brampton/Mississauga or Windsor for a seat.

[136or142]

Singh says he's open to Scarborough advice, but prefers Brampton/Mississauga or Windsor for a seat.

It would be funny (and excellent) if Pierre Nantel left federal politics to run for the PQ provincially and then Jagmeet Singh ran and won in Nantel's riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Running in Agincourt would be a bad idea; wrong part of Scarborough for him to win in.  Do you think one of the Windsor MPs will step down for him? I'm worried that might not go over so well.

[mileslunn]

Running in Agincourt would be a bad idea; wrong part of Scarborough for him to win in.  Do you think one of the Windsor MPs will step down for him? I'm worried that might not go over so well.

Any chance one of those might decide to run provincially as I am thinking of one of the eight Ontario MPs steps down to go provincial that could create an opening.  Of the upcoming by-elections, none of them are exactly seats the NDP is likely to win.