Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Hatman 🍁]

I knew Shan would probably win, but that is certainly an impressive victory. I figured voters would've got sick of him running for election every six months. So what, we are now headed for a third school board by-election to fill his seat?

[lilTommy]

I knew Shan would probably win, but that is certainly an impressive victory. I figured voters would've got sick of him running for election every six months. So what, we are now headed for a third school board by-election to fill his seat?

Perhaps always constantly running for office in basically the same area helped? He had the name most people knew from the million times he ran. 45% is still really impressive. My first fear was, ugh is he going to bold in 2018... but at the news conference he said he's running again for council (was specific) in 2018. I think Councillor of MPP was really where he wanted to be anyway.
It will be nice to have some more suburban progressives on council, there aren't many (Carroll, Perruzza, Augimeri, Colle, now Shan)

[DL]

City council lord make about $110,000 per year and as an incumbent Shan probably has a job for life now...look how long a piece of deadwood like Raymond Cho lasted?

[adma]

I knew Shan would probably win, but that is certainly an impressive victory. I figured voters would've got sick of him running for election every six months. So what, we are now headed for a third school board by-election to fill his seat?

Perhaps always constantly running for office in basically the same area helped? He had the name most people knew from the million times he ran. 45% is still really impressive. My first fear was, ugh is he going to bold in 2018... but at the news conference he said he's running again for council (was specific) in 2018. I think Councillor of MPP was really where he wanted to be anyway.
It will be nice to have some more suburban progressives on council, there aren't many (Carroll, Perruzza, Augimeri, Colle, now Shan)

There were other cases in 2014 where an impressive previous run/runs made a Council-bidder an open-seat shoe-in (Justin Di Ciano in Etobicoke stands out)

[Hatman 🍁]

Results:
Neethan Shan: 4765 (45.7%)
Zuhair Syed: 1452 (13.9%)
Hratch Aynedjian: 1058 (10.2%)
26 others: 3143 (30.2%)

With two candidates using red, no wonder Liberals couldn't get behind a candidate!

This ward covers the Malvern community of the city (would be the likely name of the ward if Toronto had proper ward names). It's only 10% White, and 43% South Asian, many of whom are Tamil like Shan. 17% of the ward has Tamil as its mother tongue.

[DL]

There were other cases in 2014 where an impressive previous run/runs made a Council-bidder an open-seat shoe-in (Justin Di Ciano in Etobicoke stands out)

Not to mention Joe Cressy running in the Trinity-Spadina federal byelection in July 2014...losing and then getting elected to city council in October 2014 with a margin very similar to Neethan Shan's (i.e. i think Cressy had about 45% and a gaggle of also rans had around 12% each)

[RogueBeaver]

Markham-Thornhill: PMO staffer Mary Ng running.

[RogueBeaver]

Ottawa-Vanier: Set for April 3.

[DC Al Fine]

Ottawa-Vanier: Set for April 3.

Trudeau's not grouping the Calgary ones with Ottawa-Vanier?

[trebor204]

Trudeau has until:
 the end of February to call for Calgary Heritage (Stephen Harper)
the end of Match to call Calgary Midnapore (Jason Kenney)
and during the summer to call Markham-Thornill (John MacCallum) and Saint-Laurent (Stephane Dion)

[RogueBeaver]

Markham-Thornhill: Further proof that de jure candidate appointments are better than Justin's de facto ones.

[136or142]

Markham-Thornhill: Further proof that de jure candidate appointments are better than Justin's de facto ones.

I used to be an acquaintance of Braeden Caley.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Off topic but still related, what's going on with the sudden drop in support for the Liberals?

[toaster]

Off topic but still related, what's going on with the sudden drop in support for the Liberals?

Two things.
1. Not going through with changing Canada's system, and moving away from FPTP
2. Essentially lying.  Even people who want the current system maintained acknowledge he blatantly lied.  And if he honestly didn't understand what changing the system meant, he comes off as unintelligent/making empty promises to get elected.

[Jeppe]

So, what are your guys' rating on the Saskatoon by-election? I'm gonna say it's "likely NDP" until I see another poll showing the NDP far ahead, in which case I'll say it's a "safe NDP" race.

[Vosem]

So, what are your guys' rating on the Saskatoon by-election? I'm gonna say it's "likely NDP" until I see another poll showing the NDP far ahead, in which case I'll say it's a "safe NDP" race.

Well, the Saskatchewan Party defeated the New Democrats by 32 points in the 2016 election, but the last poll has them up just 16 points province-wide. Saskatoon Meewasin was an 8-point victory. So I'd assume the New Democrats are favored, but I wouldn't necessarily take it to the bank, since there is little province-wide polling and we don't know if province-wide swings are necessarily replicated in Saskatoon.

[Hatman 🍁]

Off topic but still related, what's going on with the sudden drop in support for the Liberals?

Progressives outside of Canada haven't got the memo yet, but lil' Justin has been a huge disappointment. He tells us what we want to hear, but doesn't do what we want to be done. I don't know how many people actually care about electoral reform, but it's probably enough to account for a couple of points in the polls.

[Lotuslander]

Progressives outside of Canada haven't got the memo yet, but lil' Justin has been a huge disappointment. He tells us what we want to hear, but doesn't do what we want to be done. I don't know how many people actually care about electoral reform, but it's probably enough to account for a couple of points in the polls.

Haha. Come on. That's just rhetoric from an NDP diehard.

Nanos, a CATI pollster that has "nailed" every fed CA election result, since 2004, which equates to 5 election cycles... is the only CA fed pollster worth it's weight in gold - the gold standard of CA polling. Everyone else is just cheap polling junk. Worthless. Period.

Now let's look at the latest weekly Nanos CA polling numbers of February 10, 2017. Firstly, the fed Libs have been bleeding support to the Cons! Your alleged "argument" is lost right there.

BTW, the key data point that drives political party preferences, at the end of the day, are Nanos' "Best PM" numbers:

JT (Lib): 46.36%
Ambrose (Con): 19.12%
Unsure: 19.02%
Mulcair: (NDP) 9.65%
May (Green): 4.91%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/data

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh look, lotuslander found a thread that's not about BC. Guess it's finally time to put him on ignore.

You can tell Nik Nanos I say 'hi'.

[Lotuslander]

Oh look, lotuslander found a thread that's not about BC. Guess it's finally time to put him on ignore.

You can tell Nik Nanos I say 'hi'.

Haha. Idiots will always be idiots. And the ideological NDP Scientology/Jehovah's Witness sect on this site will always worship their "high priest". It is what it is.

[Hash]

Behave like adults.

[RogueBeaver]

Other federal by-elections called for April 3.

[lilTommy]

Other federal by-elections called for April 3.

So... these ridings are up:

Calgary Heritage (CPC hold)
Calgary Midnapore (CPC hold)
Saint-Laurent (LPC hold)
Markham-Thornhill (most likely the most competitive, toss CPC-LPC)
Ottawa-Vanier (Likely LPC, only riding the NDP can probably even legit contest and put up a fight)

[RogueBeaver]

Saint-Laurent: James may have Justin's tacit blessing.

[King of Kensington]

These five by-elections look like they'll be the most boring ever.