Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[RogueBeaver]

CBC has projected Calgary Heritage & Ottawa-Vanier Blue & Red.

[King of Kensington]

A good showing for the NDP in Ottawa-Vanier, but a bad one in Saint Laurent.

[MAINEiac4434]

A good showing for the NDP in Ottawa-Vanier, but a bad one in Saint Laurent.

Yeah. Doesn't bode well for the next election for the Dippers in Quebec.

[2952-0-0]

Needless to say if Trudeau didn't impose his preferred candidate on Markham Thornhill, the margin of victory would have been more than the current 12-15%.

[MAINEiac4434]

Needless to say if Trudeau didn't impose his preferred candidate on Markham Thornhill, the margin of victory would have been more than the current 12-15%.

Is Ng unpopular in the area?

[2952-0-0]

Needless to say if Trudeau didn't impose his preferred candidate on Markham Thornhill, the margin of victory would have been more than the current 12-15%.

Is Ng unpopular in the area?

https://www.hilltimes.com/2017/02/27/markham-thornhill-liberals-open-revolt-alleging-party-rigging-nomination-process-get-pm-trudeaus-top-adviser-ng-elected-candidate/97556

[136or142]

A good showing for the NDP in Ottawa-Vanier, but a bad one in Saint Laurent.

Yeah. Doesn't bode well for the next election for the Dippers in Quebec.

The relatively high profile Green Party candidate in Saint Laurent for the by-election probably took disproportionally from the NDP.

[MAINEiac4434]

The Green candidate is still in front of the NDP candidate in St-Laurent.

[Njall]

I must say, as disappointing as the CPC margins in Calgary are, they're not too surprising. Aside from the histories of those ridings, the other campaigns seemed to have little-to-no ground game.

I still proudly voted for Scott Forsyth in Calgary Heritage though - the thought of Bob Benzen as my MP-to-be is more than a little nauseating.

[Njall]

Markham--Thornhill (189/189 polls)
Mary Ng (Liberal): 51.3% (-4.4)
Ragavan Paranchothy (Conservative): 39.0% (+6.7)
Gregory Hines (NDP): 3.5% (-7.2)
Dorian Baxter (Progressive Canadian): 3.0%
Caryn Bergmann (Green): 2.2% (+0.9)
Brendan Reilly (Libertarian): 0.6%
Above Znoneofthe (Independent): 0.4%

[136or142]

Final election night result in Markham-Thornhill

Total votes: 19,215
Marry Ng, Liberal, 9,856, 51.3%
Ragavan Paranchothy, Conservative, 7,501, 39.0%
Gregory Hines, NDP,  671, 3.5%
Dorian Baxter, Progressive Canadian, 566, 2.9%
Caryn Bergmann, Green, 426, 2.2%
Brendan Thomas Reilly, Libertarian, 118, 0.6%   
Above Znoneofthe, Independent, 77, 0.4%

Registered Voters: 69,838
Percentage: 27.51%

[adma]

1.Emilie Taman, Ottawa-Vanier a former federal prosecutor (essentially fired for seeking the NDP nomination for the 2015 election, she's now a law professor.  Personally I can see both sides of whether a a public servant in a non partisan position should be allowed to run politically)

Important, too, to note that she's the daughter of former Supreme Court justice Louise Arbour.

[Njall]

Saint-Laurent (182/182 polls)
Emmanuella Lambropoulos (Liberal): 59.1% (-2.5)
Jimmy Yu (Conservative): 19.6% (+0.1)
Daniel Green (Green): 8.0% (+6.6)
Mathieu Auclair (NDP): 7.8% (-3.7)
William Fayad (Bloc Quebecois): 4.9% (+0.2)
Chinook Blais-Leduc (Rhinoceros): 0.7%

[Barnes]

A take away, for what these Volkshammer-level seats are worth:

The Liberals are clearly holding their 2015 vote and continuing to drain from the (currently) listless Dippers while the Tories have little to worry about in their strongholds. The reduced margin in Markham is mainly due to (rather appalling) branch stacking for Ng, but these types of seats will eventual start to give the Government headaches closer to 2019.

And Canadians don't feel like voting in by-elections.

[Njall]

Calgary Heritage (204/204 polls)
Bob Benzen (Conservative): 71.5% (+7.7)
Scott Forsyth (Liberal): 21.7% (-4.3)
Khalis Ahmed (NDP): 2.9% (-5.4)
Taryn Knorren (Green): 1.8% (-0.3)
Jeff Willerton (Christian Heritage): 1.4%
Darcy Gerow (Libertarian): 0.4%
Stephen Garvey (National Advancement): 0.3%

[Njall]

Calgary Midnapore (230/230 polls)
Stephanie Kusie (Conservative): 77.2% (+10.5)
Haley Brown (Liberal): 17.0% (-5.6)
Holly Heffernan (NDP): 2.5% (-5.2)
Ryan Zedic (Green): 2.1% (-0.6)
Larry Heather (Christian Heritage): 0.9%
Kulbir Singh Chawla (National Advancement): 0.3%

[Njall]

Ottawa--Vanier (255/255 polls)
Mona Fortier (Liberal): 51.2% (-6.4)
Emilie Taman (NDP): 28.7% (+9.4)
Adrian Papara (Conservative): 15.4 (-3.7)
Nira Dookeran (Green): 3.3% (+0.2)
John Turmel (Independent): 0.5%
Damien Wilson (Libertarian): 0.5% (-0.3)
Christina Wilson (Independent): 0.3%

[MAINEiac4434]

A take away, for what these Volkshammer-level seats are worth:

The Liberals are clearly holding their 2015 vote and continuing to drain from the (currently) listless Dippers while the Tories have little to worry about in their strongholds. The reduced margin in Markham is mainly due to (rather appalling) branch stacking for Ng, but these types of seats will eventual start to give the Government headaches closer to 2019.

And Canadians don't feel like voting in by-elections.

Yeah, the small turnout in Liberal seats to me shows that the there's no outrage at the Trudeau Government, and that people aren't clamoring for change.

[DL]

A take away, for what these Volkshammer-level seats are worth:

The Liberals are clearly holding their 2015 vote and continuing to drain from the (currently) listless Dippers while the Tories have little to worry about in their strongholds. The reduced margin in Markham is mainly due to (rather appalling) branch stacking for Ng, but these types of seats will eventual start to give the Government headaches closer to 2019.

And Canadians don't feel like voting in by-elections.

The only seat where the NDP had any campaign at all, as opposed to just a name on the ballot, was Ottawa Vanier where their vote went up 10 points. To the extent that byelection indicate anything at all, it shows that the NDP can cut into the Liberal vote when it makes an effort. Vanier was the only one of the five seats that would ever conceivably be an NDP target on a good day.

Btw, Emilie Taman is a superb candidate. The next Ontario provincial election is. A year away and while the federal Liberals are still relatively popular, the Ontario Liberals most definitely are not. The Ontario Liberals are so unpopular they could be reduced to half a dozen seats. I wonder if Taman could be convinced to run for the Ontario NDP in Ottawa Centre (where she actually lives)

[King of Kensington]

Btw, Emilie Taman is a superb candidate. The next Ontario provincial election is. A year away and while the federal Liberals are still relatively popular, the Ontario Liberals most definitely are not. The Ontario Liberals are so unpopular they could be reduced to half a dozen seats. I wonder if Taman could be convinced to run for the Ontario NDP in Ottawa Centre (where she actually lives)

And Vanier would be one of those half dozen seats!

[Barnes]

Btw, Emilie Taman is a superb candidate. The next Ontario provincial election is. A year away and while the federal Liberals are still relatively popular, the Ontario Liberals most definitely are not. The Ontario Liberals are so unpopular they could be reduced to half a dozen seats. I wonder if Taman could be convinced to run for the Ontario NDP in Ottawa Centre (where she actually lives)

And Vanier would be one of those half dozen seats!

Exactly. That seat has been a Grit stronghold since 1935. The Ontario Liberals will probably do horrendously poorly at the provincial election, but I don't see that having much of an indicative effect federally.

[136or142]

Aggregate vote change.  Turnout was about 50% of the 2015 turnout in all of the ridings.

2015
Total votes: 268,534
Liberal: 114,752, 42.7%
Conservative: 113,503, 42.3%
NDP: 30,605, 11.4%
Green: 6,396, 2.4%
Other: 3,278, 1.2%

2017
Total votes: 124,483
Liberal: 47,346, 38.0%, -4.7%
Conservative: 57,706, 46.4%, +4.1%
NDP: 12,224, 9.8%, -1.6%
Green: 4,070, 3.3% +0.9%
Other: 3,137, 2.5%

Additional notes:
1.The NDP's increase in Ottawa-Vanier masks its declines in the other four ridings. 
2.The actual Green Party vote in Saint Laurent (not just its vote percent) increased over 2015.

[Hatman 🍁]

Btw, Emilie Taman is a superb candidate. The next Ontario provincial election is. A year away and while the federal Liberals are still relatively popular, the Ontario Liberals most definitely are not. The Ontario Liberals are so unpopular they could be reduced to half a dozen seats. I wonder if Taman could be convinced to run for the Ontario NDP in Ottawa Centre (where she actually lives)

And Vanier would be one of those half dozen seats!

Exactly. That seat has been a Grit stronghold since 1935. The Ontario Liberals will probably do horrendously poorly at the provincial election, but I don't see that having much of an indicative effect federally.

Don't forget, there was just a provincial by-election in Ottawa-Vanier, where the Liberals still won by a large margin.

[Barnes]

Btw, Emilie Taman is a superb candidate. The next Ontario provincial election is. A year away and while the federal Liberals are still relatively popular, the Ontario Liberals most definitely are not. The Ontario Liberals are so unpopular they could be reduced to half a dozen seats. I wonder if Taman could be convinced to run for the Ontario NDP in Ottawa Centre (where she actually lives)

And Vanier would be one of those half dozen seats!

Exactly. That seat has been a Grit stronghold since 1935. The Ontario Liberals will probably do horrendously poorly at the provincial election, but I don't see that having much of an indicative effect federally.

Don't forget, there was just a provincial by-election in Ottawa-Vanier, where the Liberals still won by a large margin.

Oh yeah of course. I meant horribly province-wide, and yet they still hold Vanier!

[adma]

=2.The actual Green Party vote in Saint Laurent (not just its vote percent) increased over 2015.

What was the story there w/ Daniel Green?