Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[adma]

One thing to keep in mind about Northern Ontario is that the cities are actually far more right wing than the rural areas (at least economically), so while the NDP can win in areas like Kenora, Algoma, Nickel Belt, Timiskaming and Cochrane, it will have trouble in Sudbury, the Soo and Thunder Bay. There is a base in those cities, but they can only win with the right vote splits.

One of the key issues the NDP will have to deal with is bridging the populist North with the bobo ridings in southern Ontario, something they are now having trouble with. Jack Layton was able to do it, but Horwath and Mulcair could not.

Citywise, don't forget Timmins--though there, the "bourgeois tendencies" have tended to be counteracted by the rest of whatever riding it's in.

And speaking of Timmins, federal NDP leadership contender Charlie Angus practically personifies the populist North/bobo South bridge idea.

[King of Kensington]

Sault Ste. Marie is the kind of place that would have swung to Trump big time if it were in the US.

[Hatman 🍁]

One thing to keep in mind about Northern Ontario is that the cities are actually far more right wing than the rural areas (at least economically), so while the NDP can win in areas like Kenora, Algoma, Nickel Belt, Timiskaming and Cochrane, it will have trouble in Sudbury, the Soo and Thunder Bay. There is a base in those cities, but they can only win with the right vote splits.

One of the key issues the NDP will have to deal with is bridging the populist North with the bobo ridings in southern Ontario, something they are now having trouble with. Jack Layton was able to do it, but Horwath and Mulcair could not.

Citywise, don't forget Timmins--though there, the "bourgeois tendencies" have tended to be counteracted by the rest of whatever riding it's in.

And speaking of Timmins, federal NDP leadership contender Charlie Angus practically personifies the populist North/bobo South bridge idea.

Timmins is another good example for sure. And good point about Angus, which is why he'd be a pretty good leader (if he improves his French).

Sault Ste. Marie is the kind of place that would have swung to Trump big time if it were in the US.

What??? If anything the more rural NDP ridings in the north would be more likely to swing to Trump.

[King of Kensington]

Not as shocking a proposition as you think.  Working class city with large Italian population.

[adma]

Just because Soo's a city doesn't mean it's a *city* city.  It's more the size of Muncie than Indianapolis, after all.  (And it's not really a "college town", Algoma notwithstanding.)

For the record: across the river, Chippewa County went 59.1 Trump vs 34.8 Clinton.  (In 2012, 53.2 Romney, 45.6 Obama.  In 2008, 49.5 McCain, 49.0 Obama.)

[Krago]

Quick-and-dirty Sault Ste. Marie by-election results map:



vs. 2014 General Election results map:

[Hatman 🍁]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

[136or142]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

[Hatman 🍁]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

[136or142]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

Thanks.

I liked my joke about the Soo. I'm sure nobody has ever come up with that before! 

[Hatman 🍁]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

Thanks.

I liked my joke about the Soo. I'm sure nobody has ever come up with that before! 

oh wow, I hadn't even noticed!

[Krago]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

Thanks.

I liked my joke about the Soo. I'm sure nobody has ever come up with that before! 

oh wow, I hadn't even noticed!

Can't wait for your take on the 'Poe Lock'.

[136or142]

further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

Thanks.

I liked my joke about the Soo. I'm sure nobody has ever come up with that before! 

oh wow, I hadn't even noticed!

Can't wait for your take on the 'Poe Lock'.

I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?

[adma]

I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?

(hey, I have personal ethnic licence ;-) )

As for the Soo, the far west is rural-dominated, right?

[Krago]

I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?

(hey, I have personal ethnic licence ;-) )

As for the Soo, the far west is rural-dominated, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soo_Locks

[136or142]

I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?

(hey, I have personal ethnic licence ;-) )

As for the Soo, the far west is rural-dominated, right?

Poor Meathead.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?

(hey, I have personal ethnic licence ;-) )

As for the Soo, the far west is rural-dominated, right?

You guys are dating yourselves with these All in the Family references!

Anyways, geographically the far west is 'dominated' by a lot of farms, but I'd imagine most of the population is urban.

[Hatman 🍁]

So I did get some time today to do a write up on my blog

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/06/point-douglas-by-election-preview.html

[136or142]

So I did get some time today to do a write up on my blog

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/06/point-douglas-by-election-preview.html

Thanks!

The name of the B.C 'caretaker' health minister is Mary Polak.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is this the kind of thing people would be interested in me doing more of in the future?

[trebor204]

Point Douglas
2 Polls


NDP 56
LIB 24
PC 18
MP 4
Green 3
COmm 1

[Hatman 🍁]

Even with just a few polls in, it's obvious the NDP has won it. Looking at a worse result than in 2016 though, but still too early to determine.

[trebor204]

After 15/47 Polls, NDP at 48%, LIB 26%, PC 15%

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like they probably won't break 50% Not a good result.

[trebor204]

CBC calls Point DOuglas to NDP, NDP now at 46% (23/47 Polls)