Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[trebor204]

After 37/47 Polls

NDP 43.6%
LIN 30.2%
PC 15.5%

Turnout looks to be under 30%

[136or142]

Is this the kind of thing people would be interested in me doing more of in the future?

No! Don't EVER do it again.  (Just kidding)

Yes, thanks.  It's quite helpful.

[trebor204]

I've been keeping a running tally, as each poll report. (Finding the gain in votes for each party as each poll came in)
It looks like the Liberals manage to win at least 5 polls, most likely a few more since there in cases where I received more than 1 polls at time.
It look like the PCs manage to win one poll. (Most likely the one they won in the last election, in South Point Douglas)
In one poll there was almost a three way tie (PC and LIB 24 votes, NDP 23 votes)

Latest Results: 46/47 Polls

NDP 1,282 (41.9%)
LIB 943 (30.8%)
PC 504 (16.4%)
Manitoba 173 (5.6%)
Green130 (4.2%)
Comm. 26 (0.8%)

Turnout at 28.6%

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it will make for a more interesting map.

[Hatman 🍁]

With all polls reporting:

NDP: 44.3% (-13.5)
Lib: 29.1% (+9.6)
PC: 16.2% (-0.3)
MP: 5.2%
Grn: 4.2% (-0.8)
Comm: 0.8% (-0.3)

Turnout: 32.3% (-10.2)

2 party avg. swing: 11.5% NDP to Liberal

[trebor204]

Final Poll is in (most likely the advance poll, with 401 votes, NDP got 62.8% in that poll)

NDP 1,534 (44.3%)
LIB 1,006 (29.1%)
PC 562 (16.2%)
MB 181 (5.2%)
Green 147 (4.2%)
Comm 29 (.8%)

Turnout: 32.38 Votes.

http://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Results/ResultByElection/PointDouglas

[adma]

You guys are dating yourselves with these All in the Family references!

Given that the alternative is the vapid airheaded Game of Thrones talk in the 2017 French Legislative Elections thread, gladly so. ;-)

[136or142]

What is the Nanaimo municipal council election for?  We're well more than half way through the 4 year mandate of councils, so I understand they don't have to hold a by-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

What is the Nanaimo municipal council election for?  We're well more than half way through the 4 year mandate of councils, so I understand they don't have to hold a by-election.

City council. Cllr Wendy Pratt resigned in April in connection to some sort of scandal involving the city council.

We're more than a year away from the next municipal elections, so I fully support them having a by-election.

There are 13 candidates running.  Profiles: https://www.ournanaimo.com/index.php/candidate-bios/

[trebor204]

Point Douglas - Votes by Voting Area:

http://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Results/ResultsByVA/131

CBC Story:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-point-douglas-byelection-map-1.4164541

[136or142]

What is the Nanaimo municipal council election for?  We're well more than half way through the 4 year mandate of councils, so I understand they don't have to hold a by-election.

City council. Cllr Wendy Pratt resigned in April in connection to some sort of scandal involving the city council.

We're more than a year away from the next municipal elections, so I fully support them having a by-election.

There are 13 candidates running.  Profiles: https://www.ournanaimo.com/index.php/candidate-bios/

Thanks!

[Hatman 🍁]

Point Douglas - Votes by Voting Area:

http://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/en/Results/ResultsByVA/131

CBC Story:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-point-douglas-byelection-map-1.4164541

Looks like the Filipino areas voted Liberal, while the Aboriginal areas voted NDP. No surprise, really.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, it looks like there is more of a correlation with the 2015 federal election result than the 2016 provincial election. The NDP's best areas were North Point Douglas and Lord Selkirk Park, just like in the federal election. Meanwhile, their best poll from 2016 went Liberal!

[MaxQue]

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

Tough call at this point. It's very pro-sovereignty area of the province, but it is also a riding that is not that committed to voting for pro-sovereignty parties.

- The Liberals have not won it since 1980, but a lot of ridings in Quebec had the distinction before 2015. Provincially, they hold the western half of the riding (Roberval), but that's only because it's the Premier's seat.
- This isn't exactly a traditional Conservative seat. They did do well in 2006, which helped them pick the seat up in a by-election in 2007. Provincially though, the CAQ/ADQ has no history in this part of Quebec.
- This could've been an NDP target once upon a time. The 2015 redistribution added Alma to the district, which was swept by the NDP in 2011 (and again in 2015!).
- The eastern half of this riding has been represented by the PQ since 1976.

[lilTommy]

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

Tough call at this point. It's very pro-sovereignty area of the province, but it is also a riding that is not that committed to voting for pro-sovereignty parties.

- The Liberals have not won it since 1980, but a lot of ridings in Quebec had the distinction before 2015. Provincially, they hold the western half of the riding (Roberval), but that's only because it's the Premier's seat.
- This isn't exactly a traditional Conservative seat. They did do well in 2006, which helped them pick the seat up in a by-election in 2007. Provincially though, the CAQ/ADQ has no history in this part of Quebec.
- This could've been an NDP target once upon a time. The 2015 redistribution added Alma to the district, which was swept by the NDP in 2011 (and again in 2015!).
- The eastern half of this riding has been represented by the PQ since 1976.

The NDP still came in second with 28% vs Label's 33%; even then with the Liberal victory in 2015 they were 4th; I would think that the CPC, BQ, and NDP will want this seat and all three could have a shot. 
Polling is all over the place, two polls out have the NDP at 11%, the other at 20%... so the party is best to just ignore the polls and go after the seat, I think with a leadership race on, all 5 candidates showing up to help campaign can build more media cover for the NDP. I think the CPC or BQ would have to be favourites, but the NDP can be in this race I think.

[136or142]

Of the 26 senior ministers in the final Stephen Harper cabinet, with Denis Lebel leaving, only 11 will still be in the House of Commons.

Four did not run in the last election, seven were defeated and now four have retired/will be retiring.

These are the ones left:
1.Ed Fast
2.Gerry Ritz
3.Tony Clement
4.Lisa Raitt
5.Kellie Leitch
6.Rob Nicholson
7.Pierre Polievre
8.Erin O'Toole
9.Peter Van Loan
10.Diane Finley
11.Steven Blaney


There are also at least three M.Ps who are still in the Commons who were not part of the final senior cabinet: Peter Kent, Michael Chong and Maxime Bernier.

[RogueBeaver]

Hébert: Couillard wants Lebel to run for him, status TBD. By-election will be a 4-way race, presumably around the time Dippers choose a new leader.

[Krago]

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

Tough call at this point. It's very pro-sovereignty area of the province, but it is also a riding that is not that committed to voting for pro-sovereignty parties.

- The Liberals have not won it since 1980, but a lot of ridings in Quebec had the distinction before 2015. Provincially, they hold the western half of the riding (Roberval), but that's only because it's the Premier's seat.
- This isn't exactly a traditional Conservative seat. They did do well in 2006, which helped them pick the seat up in a by-election in 2007. Provincially though, the CAQ/ADQ has no history in this part of Quebec.
- This could've been an NDP target once upon a time. The 2015 redistribution added Alma to the district, which was swept by the NDP in 2011 (and again in 2015!).
- The eastern half of this riding has been represented by the PQ since 1976.

The NDP still came in second with 28% vs Label's 33%; even then with the Liberal victory in 2015 they were 4th; I would think that the CPC, BQ, and NDP will want this seat and all three could have a shot. 
Polling is all over the place, two polls out have the NDP at 11%, the other at 20%... so the party is best to just ignore the polls and go after the seat, I think with a leadership race on, all 5 candidates showing up to help campaign can build more media cover for the NDP. I think the CPC or BQ would have to be favourites, but the NDP can be in this race I think.

The Liberals finished third in Lac-Saint-Jean in 2015.

Candidate	Party	Occupation	Votes	Votes (%)
LEBEL, Denis	C	parliamentarian	18,393	33.27%
DALLAIRE, Gisèle	N.D.P.	industrial psychologist	15,735	28.46%
SIMARD, Sabin	Lib	consultant	10,193	18.44%
GAUDREAULT, Sabin	B.Q.	retired	10,152	18.37%
REQUILÉ, Laurence	G.P.	florist	806	1.46%

[Hatman 🍁]

Hébert: Couillard wants Lebel to run for him, status TBD. By-election will be a 4-way race, presumably around the time Dippers choose a new leader.

Lebel would have a hard time winning for the PLQ in Lac-Saint-Jean, and he can't run in Roberval, as that's Couillard's seat. He'd be given a safe seat somewhere.

[Hatman 🍁]

I did a post mortem analysis of the Point Douglas by-election, if anyone is interested: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/06/point-doulgas-by-election-post-mortem.html

[the506]

Saskatoon-Fairview Sask Party MLA Jennifer Campeau is stepping down. Could be another NDP gain.

http://www.leaderpost.com/saskatoon+jennifer+campeau+steps+down/13463711/story.html

[lilTommy]

Saskatoon-Fairview Sask Party MLA Jennifer Campeau is stepping down. Could be another NDP gain.

http://www.leaderpost.com/saskatoon+jennifer+campeau+steps+down/13463711/story.html

At this point, almost any urban by-election (ok, ANY seat) the NDP will target. With the NDP gaining strength province wide they are going to be all over this riding. Polling looks a little scattered:
http://thestarphoenix.com/news/saskatchewan/right-now-its-anybodys-ball-game-sask-party-popularity-fading-ndp-surging-polls-show

Angus Reid: SP 48%, NDP 40%
Mainstreet: NDP 49% SP 40%
But, both polls have the NDP leading in Saskatoon so, again, I think candidates will seal the seat for either the SP of NDP, but lean-NDP on this one (just based on provincial polling)
I'm sure Wall is overjoyed by this

[Hatman 🍁]

Campeau won the seat by just 3 points last time, it is an easy NDP pick up.