Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Jeppe]

Yeah, we'll probably see a landslide 20-30 point win for the NDP. It was one of the Sask Party's most vulnerable seats in the last general election, back when they were trouncing the NDP by 30 points.

[RogueBeaver]

Outremont: Mulcair might resign after his successor is elected. Easy Grit gain, needless to say.

[Hatman 🍁]

Outremont: Mulcair might resign after his successor is elected. Easy Grit gain, needless to say.

While I don't doubt the Liberals would be heavily favoured, the NDP will really try to target the seat. Don't forget, even before Mulcair was elected it was the NDP's best riding in Quebec. I'd wait to see where the polls are when the time comes before making any brash predictions.

[RogueBeaver]

Toronto: Pam McConnell has died.

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto: Pam McConnell has died.

I think we're beyond the point where they will hold a by-election, they will just appoint someone.

[Poirot]

The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php

With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

If the number of people interested in running for the Liberals in the future Lac-Saint-Jean byelection is an indication, a pickup seems possible. Richard Hébert, the mayor of Dolbeau-Mistassini was contacted by the party a few months ago. He will consult the population during the summer. He is supported by business people from his town and elected officials from Alma area.

The mayor of Desbiens is interested to run. An ex-leader of Mashteuiatsh reserve is also thinking of running. The mayor of Roberval was interested but chose to run again for mayor, the municipal elections are in November.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/actualites/201706/28/01-5111677-deux-maires-du-lac-interesses-par-le-parti-liberal.php

The mayor of Desbiens stated opportunities are in power, not in opposition, that running in a byelection is an advantage because people vote for the candidate that will be in power.

This could be what will happen, not sure if there is anger at the government in the area, for regional economic development it's good to be on the government side.

Denis Lebel probably got a big personal vote for the job he had done. He received double the vote of conservative candidates in the other two ridings in the region, Jonquière and Chicoutimi- Le Fjord (16-17%). The Liberals had 28% and 31% in those two.

The candidates are not known yet but the Liberals have a chance. They seem to be polling double of any other party. The NDP came a close second but polling below last election in the province. The Conservative and NDP will be lead by not well known leaders.       

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, I wonder how much of that 2007 by-election win was a result of the Conservatives having just come to power? Could bode well for the Liberals, if the area does truly want to go for whoever is in the government.

[Hatman 🍁]

Because I know you guys care very much, here are the results of the Nanaimo by-election

Sheryl Armstrong: 3,611 (48.9%)
Sacia Burton: 858 (11.6%)
All others: 2,921 (39.5%)

Turnout: 11.0%

Armstrong is a former RCMP officer.

[Hatman 🍁]

Geoff Meggs, VV councillor in Vancouver was appointed as Horgan's Chief of Staff on Tuesday. There will be a by-election in October. Because there are no wards, it will be a city-wide race, so it might be seen as a referendum on the current administration.

[Jeppe]

If Ralph Goodale was nominated as the next Lieutenant Governor of Saskatchewan, which party would win the by-election? Would the Liberals lose their only seat in the province or would they manage to hold on? A lot of provincial NDP voters in the riding would probably revert back to voting for the federal party once Goodale is gone.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Ralph Goodale was nominated as the next Lieutenant Governor of Saskatchewan, which party would win the by-election? Would the Liberals lose their only seat in the province or would they manage to hold on? A lot of provincial NDP voters in the riding would probably revert back to voting for the federal party once Goodale is gone.

Is there speculation of this?

Back before Trudeau, I think the conventional wisdom was that it would become an NDP seat, but I think right now the Liberals would probably win it.

[Poirot]

Mainstreet research poll of Saskatchewan in mid-May had a federal question. In Regina the Liberal party has a 12 point lead

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/sk-party-fades-as-ndp-takes-9-point-lead/

Since then Andrew Scheer became Conservative leader. There could be some local boost effect. Also it's regional number from one poll.

[trebor204]

By-Election of Note:

Ritchot (RM South of Winnipeg) By-Election was held tonight. The by-elections were held after Mayor Jackie Hunt and two councillors, Jeannot Robert and Ron Mamchuk, resigned. This after allegations two other councillors, Ernie Dumaine and Corrine Webb, verbally attacked the mayor at a meeting over an outdoor hockey rink. All 5 members ran to reclaim their seat:

Results:
Mayor: Chris Ewen, turnout 39%
Ward 1: Shane Pelletier, turnout 49%
Ward 2: Ron Mamchuk (re-elected), turnout 51%
Ward 3: Jeannot Robert (acclaimed)
Ward 4: Janine Boulanger, turnout 31%

http://www.ritchot.com/main.aspx?CategoryCode=BE0B3259-5572-4DEA-9D08-6072C1F49D90&pageCode=BB92AA54-78AB-4621-B245-727A03D7237F

[Hatman 🍁]

By-Election of Note:

Ritchot (RM South of Winnipeg) By-Election was held tonight. The by-elections were held after Mayor Jackie Hunt and two councillors, Jeannot Robert and Ron Mamchuk, resigned. This after allegations two other councillors, Ernie Dumaine and Corrine Webb, verbally attacked the mayor at a meeting over an outdoor hockey rink. All 5 members ran to reclaim their seat:

Results:
Mayor: Chris Ewen, turnout 39%
Ward 1: Shane Pelletier, turnout 49%
Ward 2: Ron Mamchuk (re-elected), turnout 51%
Ward 3: Jeannot Robert (acclaimed)
Ward 4: Janine Boulanger, turnout 31%

http://www.ritchot.com/main.aspx?CategoryCode=BE0B3259-5572-4DEA-9D08-6072C1F49D90&pageCode=BB92AA54-78AB-4621-B245-727A03D7237F

The municipality has a fairly large Francophone population, but interestingly none of the wards appear to have a Francophone majority.

Also interestingly, Ewen only won one ward and didn't even with the advance vote! But his margins were so high is Ward 1, that he was able to win the election.  Jackie Hunt the incumbent mayor won 2 wards (2 & 3) which appear to be more Francophone than most of the RM, while 3rd place candidate Gene Whitney won ward 4.

Also interestingly for rural Manitoba, the RM voted for the Liberals back in 2015, but provincially went PC last year.

[lilTommy]

For the Saskatoon-Fairview, the NDP have nominated 2016 candidate and Executive Assistant to the Dean of Aboriginal Affairs at the University of Saskatchewan Vicki Mowat

http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/mowat-to-represent-ndp-in-saskatoon-fairview-by-election-1.3517540

The SaskParty have nominated School Board Trustee, former correction officer Cameron Scott

http://thestarphoenix.com/news/local-news/saskatoon-fairview-follow

[Hatman 🍁]

In addition to resigning as BC Liberal leader, Christy Clark will also be resigning her seat.

[lilTommy]

In addition to resigning as BC Liberal leader, Christy Clark will also be resigning her seat.

The likelyhood of the NDP winning Kelwona West is what?... From what I can see, they have never won this riding in any configuration. Greens? would this be a riding the NDP could/should sacrifice for their little buddies?

[adma]

The last federal result suggests that Kelowna at large might be moving "leftward"...which in this case, means centreward, i.e. if the BC Libs continue to be seen as a viable "grand coalition" entity, they've nothing to fear.  (Especially considering how Justin didn't exactly shun his party's provincial namesake.)

[Poirot]

Trudeau and Scheer visited Saguenay and Lac Saint-Jean region, a pre-campaign for the Lac-Saint-Jean byelection.

An editorial from a regional newspaper talks of the Trudeau effect for the byelection
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-quotidien/opinions/editoriaux/201707/26/01-5119676-leffet-trudeau-et-la-partielle.php

The Liberal candidate will start ahead not only for the lure of power or the government policies but mostly because of Trudeau's popularity. There were big crowds and Trudeau took a lot of time shaking hands and taking selfies. He gives the impression of being accessicle and listening to people. He met local leaders from business, union, social housing, mayors.

Local news coverage seems very positive. In addition to the excitement of the rock star visit, Alma mayor said trudeau is doing exceptional work and has a magnetic personality. Trudeau gave his word to farmers he will defend them and he would find a solution to a local problem of cell phone coverage. 

[136or142]

The Conservatives tried "Just-in over his head" in 2015, from what I've seen so far, the Liberals should use 'Scheer Stupidity.'

[trebor204]

Glen Murray (Lib-Toronto) is resigning his cabinet post (Ontario Environment) and we resign his seat.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/cabinet-shuffle-murray-wynne-1.4228747

[RogueBeaver]

Star says seat will remain vacant till the election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Few if any safer Grit seats.

Why do you always make these wild proclamations? Your first prediction for the Soo by-election was that it would be a Liberal-NDP race for pete's sake.

Toronto Centre used to vote for the Tories, and with Kathleen Wynne being so unpopular, in a by-election scenario I could see a lot of the voters switching to them, and if the NDP targets, we could see a 3 way race. There have been two by-elections in recent history, in 2010 the NDP won 33% (provincial) and in 2013 the NDP won 36% (federal).

If there is no by-election, then the new Toronto Centre riding will be a pure toss up. The redistributed federal results from 2011 had the Liberals win the riding by just three points. Safe seat indeed!  

[DL]

Star says seat will remain vacant till the election.

That would imply that if Jagmeet Singh wins the federal NDP leadership and resigns his Ontario seat sometime in the Fall - there would also not be any byelection in Bramalea-Gore-Malton before the June 2018 general election.

The new boundaries for Toronto Centre that lop off Rosedale, coupled with Glen Murray quitting, coupled with the extreme unpopularity of Kathleen Wynne could actually make the riding a top target for the Ontario NDP.

[Krago]

Does anyone have the polling subdivision maps used in the Quebec provincial by-elections in Chauveau (2015-06-08) and St-Henri--Ste-Anne (2015-11-09)?

Many thanks.